Stag
Sergeant
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Greetings guys, it's been a while since my last post here. The situation is tricky indeed now in the Euro, so let me throw in my two cents and show my WP based interpretation.
Yesterday’s low in the Euro was 1.1526, just 4 pips below where wave circle w of B ended. The advance starting from there seems to be corrective in nature. This makes me think that the recovery can be part of a more complex structure so at time of writing it is too early to say the drop is complete. If 1.1578 breaks, I anticipate a further decline in EURUSD to new lows for this cycle to complete somwhere in the 1.151x - 1.146x area. If prices keep advancing higher poking above 1.166 followed by a reversal and a close back below on H4 or above, this scenario would remain a valid option.
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Hi Guys, a short update again. On the larger scale I think it's premature to conclude the Euro has established a final top. Unfortunately we have too many options right now. You can find three of them on the pics below.
The advance from 1.1526 has overlapping wave structure (can be counted either as a complete or still unfolding diagonal) and could not brake through the-mid line of the grey channel - a sign of weakness, at least temporarily.
Prices are flirting with lower borders of our KCT channels. For an immediate bullish follow through we need to see the Euro continue above 1.1815 against 1.168x.
A break below the grey channel followed by an impulsive dip below 1.1617 will signal that the Euro might have peaked but the outlook remains bullish and any drop should look corrective as long as prices are above 1.1526. On the other hand one of the counts suggests a blue (B) wave correction is still unfolding and we may see the early stages of an impulsive decline towards 1.15 to complete red wave B before the advance resumes again.
Not an easy situation.