FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 24-28, 2018

[Stag]

Greetings guys, it's been a while since my last post here. The situation is tricky indeed now in the Euro, so let me throw in my two cents and show my WP based interpretation.

Yesterday’s low in the Euro was 1.1526, just 4 pips below where wave circle w of B ended. The advance starting from there seems to be corrective in nature. This makes me think that the recovery can be part of a more complex structure so at time of writing it is too early to say the drop is complete. If 1.1578 breaks, I anticipate a further decline in EURUSD to new lows for this cycle to complete somwhere in the 1.151x - 1.146x area. If prices keep advancing higher poking above 1.166 followed by a reversal and a close back below on H4 or above, this scenario would remain a valid option.

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Hi Guys, a short update again. On the larger scale I think it's premature to conclude the Euro has established a final top. Unfortunately we have too many options right now. You can find three of them on the pics below.

The advance from 1.1526 has overlapping wave structure (can be counted either as a complete or still unfolding diagonal) and could not brake through the-mid line of the grey channel - a sign of weakness, at least temporarily.

Prices are flirting with lower borders of our KCT channels. For an immediate bullish follow through we need to see the Euro continue above 1.1815 against 1.168x.

A break below the grey channel followed by an impulsive dip below 1.1617 will signal that the Euro might have peaked but the outlook remains bullish and any drop should look corrective as long as prices are above 1.1526. On the other hand one of the counts suggests a blue (B) wave correction is still unfolding and we may see the early stages of an impulsive decline towards 1.15 to complete red wave B before the advance resumes again.

Not an easy situation.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Guys, a short update again. On the larger scale I think it's premature to conclude the Euro has established a final top. Unfortunately we have too many options right now. You can find three of them on the pics below.

The advance from 1.1526 has overlapping wave structure (can be counted either as a complete or still unfolding diagonal) and could not brake through the-mid line of the grey channel - a sign of weakness, at least temporarily.

Prices are flirting with lower borders of our KCT channels. For an immediate bullish follow through we need to see the Euro continue above 1.1815 against 1.168x.

A break below the grey channel followed by an impulsive dip below 1.1617 will signal that the Euro might have peaked but the outlook remains bullish and any drop should look corrective as long as prices are above 1.1526. On the other hand one of the counts suggests a blue (B) wave correction is still unfolding and we may see the early stages of an impulsive decline towards 1.15 to complete red wave B before the advance resumes again.

Not an easy situation.

Hi Stag, Indeed. Our basic scenario mostly agrees with the one that you've shown on the first chart, with deep retracement to ~1.1465. As I've mentioned in the video - H&S and other stuff. I just do not dare to speak about it and focus on closer 1.1630-1.1650 target just yet ))

 

[Deltoid88]

Hello Sive,

what is your opinion about USD/JPY? What do you think about scenario where final wave 5 to the upside finishes in the 113.60-114.70 zone and then big drop starts?

Having already quite large sell position on USD/JPY and planing maybe to increase it as price goes up. Your advice is very much appreciated.

Here is my analysis. Moving averages on the photo are 21 and 55 EMA.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive,

what is your opinion about USD/JPY? What do you think about scenario where final wave 5 to the upside finishes in the 113.60-114.70 zone and then big drop starts?

Having already quite large sell position on USD/JPY and planing maybe to increase it as price goes up. Your advice is very much appreciated.

Here is my analysis. Moving averages on the photo are 21 and 55 EMA.

Hi buddy,

To be honest I'm not dealing with JPY nowadays, just because it is too politicized and mostly is driven not internal economical process but reacts on global shifts as well.

Unfortunately I can't give you valuable insight on Elliot waves, because I have only surface knowledge of this tool. So, we ask Stag, as our EW expert to comment this, but at first glance, your 1st wave is greater than the 3rd and it should be opposite. In fact 5th wave has been completed around previous 113.30 top...

Anyway, I would watch for a bit higher reversal point - somewhere around 115.40, mostly because there we have monthly 0.618 AB-CD target and "222' Buy pattern. There we also will get butterfly completion and inner AB-CD's either. As a target I would use harmonic retracement swing. Right now it is difficult to find reasons for real long-term reversal as dollar looks solid by far, just a pullback probably.

Also, Rodger recently have put good analysis on JPY in one of the EUR video threads - either this week or on previous one.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

As investors better analyze Fed information - EUR has dropped further. Now we could say that our target for the week is completed - price stands at daily 3/8 support. By taking a look at daily chart, chances stands in favor of downside continuation by two reasons. First is - drop is fast, yesterday we've got long candle with tail close. Second - we have harmonic reverse H&S pattern. To keep harmony market should drop somewhere to 1.15-1.1525 area:

On 4H chart our XOP target has been completed as well. Right now we do not see valuable setups for trading. Most probable that EUR will turn to technical retracement and response to K-support, Agreeement area and WPS1 today.

On 1H chart we do not see yet any clear patterns. Scalp traders could watch probably for DRPO or some other short-term bullish reversal patterns here. Next week we will take a look at retracement and see what to do next.

 

[Stag]

Hello Sive,

what is your opinion about USD/JPY? What do you think about scenario where final wave 5 to the upside finishes in the 113.60-114.70 zone and then big drop starts?

Having already quite large sell position on USD/JPY and planing maybe to increase it as price goes up. Your advice is very much appreciated.

Here is my analysis. Moving averages on the photo are 21 and 55 EMA.

Hi Deltoid, based on the larger wave structure I can't discount the possibility of the scenario below.

I think we are looking for a five-wave advance to complete blue wave (c) of circle D. It looks like the third wave of this advance is near to its end and may find a top somewhere between 1.618 - 2.000 Fib projection (113.7 - 114.5 area). For the red wave 5 target, sights are set on the dark green area, the level wave 5 will have traveled the same distance as red wave 1. Then, I would expect a drop back to 111 - 110 area.

The scenario below is valid as long as prices are trading above 111.83.

Hope this helps.

 

[Deltoid88]

Sive,

thank you for sharing your perspective too. This analysis you posted looks more probable then mine. I have already changed my short term targets on USD/JPY. Do you have complaints about this analysis I am about to post? What do you think about completion of OP target of XA on gartley long term?

Hello Stag,

thank you a lot for sharing this beautiful wave count. Do you use some kind of indicator there or you draw it on your own? Why do you think it is only (A) (B) (C) move to the upside and not 12345 move? Talking about big wave count. Also, what do you think about option where wave (B) is maybe A on your chart? What do you think about idea where when your wave (C) completes we see minor drop, not a drop to 110-111 and then push to 122 area? Please, if you have time have a look on my analysis and tell me what your thoughts are about it.

As I see we all agree that wave 3 on short term is about to end, either immediately or maybe going little more up max to 114.70 after we could expect minor drop to 112.40 area and then bounce through 114.70 resistance.

 

[Stag]

Hello Stag,

thank you a lot for sharing this beautiful wave count. Do you use some kind of indicator there or you draw it on your own? Why do you think it is only (A) (B) (C) move to the upside and not 12345 move? Talking about big wave count. Also, what do you think about option where wave (B) is maybe A on your chart? What do you think about idea where when your wave (C) completes we see minor drop, not a drop to 110-111 and then push to 122 area? Please, if you have time have a look on my analysis and tell me what your thoughts are about it.

As I see we all agree that wave 3 on short term is about to end, either immediately or maybe going little more up max to 114.70 after we could expect minor drop to 112.40 area and then bounce through 114.70 resistance.

Hi mate,

Do you use some kind of indicator there or you draw it on your own?

No special indicators, I use special analytical tools and easy to learn channeling technique to make my life easier (a 3 min slideshow can be found here). But I label my charts manually on my own.

Why do you think it is only (A) (B) (C) move to the upside and not 12345 move? Talking about big wave count.

Because at time of writing odds are in favor of (A)(B)(C) over 12345. The foremost aim of wave classification is to determine where prices are in the instrument's overall progression. I always start on the larger degree because longer term charts often effectively condense the action into a form that clarifies the pattern in progress on the smaller degrees (lower timeframes). This approach suggests me that the price action starting from 2012 is going to be a wave 4 correction. And the subdivisions of the pattern we see unfolding on the lower timeframes fit well into this idea.

Also, what do you think about option where wave (B) is maybe A on your chart?
If it was an A, we could expect a C wave rally towards 124.3 followed by a decline down near to 100 or even below.

What do you think about idea where when your wave (C) completes we see minor drop, not a drop to 110-111 and then push to 122 area? Please, if you have time have a look on my analysis and tell me what your thoughts are about it. As I see we all agree that wave 3 on short term is about to end, either immediately or maybe going little more up max to 114.70 after we could expect minor drop to 112.40 area and then bounce through 114.70 resistance.
It is a probability game and anything can happen. I think as long as prices are above 104.65, chances are that we are headed towards 130 on the longer run.

Monthly

Weekly

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,

thank you for sharing your perspective too. This analysis you posted looks more probable then mine. I have already changed my short term targets on USD/JPY. Do you have complaints about this analysis I am about to post? What do you think about completion of OP target of XA on gartley long term?

Hey,
mostly I agree. In fact, when we have taken a look at JPY, we've talked about the same "222", but at that moment, "D" point was not in place yet.
Besides, USD strength idea is supported by fundamental background now.

 

[Deltoid88]

Hi mate,

Do you use some kind of indicator there or you draw it on your own?

No special indicators, I use special analytical tools and easy to learn channeling technique to make my life easier (a 3 min slideshow can be found here). But I label my charts manually on my own.

Why do you think it is only (A) (B) (C) move to the upside and not 12345 move? Talking about big wave count.

Because at time of writing odds are in favor of (A)(B)(C) over 12345. The foremost aim of wave classification is to determine where prices are in the instrument's overall progression. I always start on the larger degree because longer term charts often effectively condense the action into a form that clarifies the pattern in progress on the smaller degrees (lower timeframes). This approach suggests me that the price action starting from 2012 is going to be a wave 4 correction. And the subdivisions of the pattern we see unfolding on the lower timeframes fit well into this idea.

Also, what do you think about option where wave (B) is maybe A on your chart?
If it was an A, we could expect a C wave rally towards 124.3 followed by a decline down near to 100 or even below.

What do you think about idea where when your wave (C) completes we see minor drop, not a drop to 110-111 and then push to 122 area? Please, if you have time have a look on my analysis and tell me what your thoughts are about it. As I see we all agree that wave 3 on short term is about to end, either immediately or maybe going little more up max to 114.70 after we could expect minor drop to 112.40 area and then bounce through 114.70 resistance.
It is a probability game and anything can happen. I think as long as prices are above 104.65, chances are that we are headed towards 130 on the longer run.

Monthly

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Weekly


View attachment 39732

Thank you a lot, Stag. This is very deep analysis. You helped me a lot. Will store this somewhere in PC to track what is going on. This could be lifetime analysis literally will check tools you mentioned also. I am sure it is worthy.

Glad I got your approval, Sive. Certainly feel much more confident when you agree. Thanks!