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Forex Signal (Fri, July 23 2010, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK Prelim GDP q/q

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 22, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:

    UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.3%
    ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%


    The Trade Plan
    Our deviation for today's trade is 0.3% to SELL and 0.2% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.3% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.8% of release figure or better. This will be the 3rd consecutive quarter of positive GDP release from UK, and if we do end up with a positive release, it means that the economic recovery in UK is gaining momentum. If we get a 1.0% or even better release, expect to see some huge market reaction bidding for Sterling.

    Depending on the surprise of this release, we could go from after news retracement trade to spike trading. I believe if we get a 1.0% or better release, it justifies spiking trading. If we get 0.8%, then we should follow the retracement trading rule as seen below:
    Henry's Retracement Trading Method

    Due to the "Buy on rumor Sell on news" market reaction, we could see some demand in the GBP prior to the release. It is possible to BUY GBP during the overnight Asian session if you see a dip in the market...

    The Market
    Medium Forecast sits at 0.6% out of 32 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The feelings on the street are that the 2nd half of 2010 is going to be a tough one, but at least for this release we should see some strong readings.

    BOE official Andrew Sentance wanted to hike interest rates during last BOE rate decision citing inflation and economic expansion as revealed in the MPC meeting minutes on Wednesday, but was voted down due to concerns over the recent budget cuts which may increase risk of another slowdown in the economy. Current market condition is neutral on the future direction of Sterling.

    Additional Thoughts
    Since the Prelim GDP is the first release of the quarterly GDP, it’s usually the one with most potential for surprises. This is the most important news event for UK in this week, and a highly anticipated one.

    Unless we get a strong reading, the after release market may be difficult to predict. On one hand we could be looking at the best GDP release for some time, as the 2nd Quarter GDP expectation rose on the back of series of positive data from UK and perhaps with the help of World Cup. However, with budget and spending cuts to look forward to, the future for UK's economy is bleak at best. Although I do not expect to see a strong decline in UK's fundamentals in the immediate future, fundamental traders and speculators are surely considering these factors.

    Definition
    UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q2 2010 is expected to be a positive release of 0.6% surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.

    For historical data and charts on UK Prelim GDP q/q:
    Historical Data & Charts UK GDP q/q


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 22, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. jbeach

    jbeach Recruit

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    j.beach

    Hi Henry, shux id just like to thank you for all your help, you and all your colleagues are amazingly talented and very kind.
    I have been benefitting consistently from your signals, and hope it doesnt stop, lol
    Thanks heaps and God bless
     
  3. KJeff

    KJeff Recruit

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    Before report release

    Hi Henry, how do we trade before the release of the report?
    I'm still new and still can't figure this out.
    I always need to wait for the news to be released before I react.

    And by that time, the spike already went up or down.
    And as I try to trade with it, sometimes it's not enough, or worse
    it even starts to retrace.

    If there were just a way to have a warning or a sign to show that
    the market is either going up or down before the report, then it
    wouldn't be a headache or even a hole in the pocket to lose a trade.

    I hope that you could help me out and point me in the right direction,
    thanks.
     
  4. pipstatic

    pipstatic Recruit

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    what i do...


    I understand what you mean, and i have the same problem. Im new too but the strategy that i've been using havent failed me yet.
    15min. Before the release I watch the pair im gonna trade carefully, if i see it slowly pushing up...i wait until its up by 10 to X pips or so then i buy the pair(as long as it is still pushing up)
    Like the CAD Retail sale this morning usd/cad...that thing moved up so fast i wouldn't even had a chance to put in my trade if i didnt do that. I watched it creeping up b4 the actual release, when it crept up 10+ pips i bought it, then BAM! like lightning it went up.
    Thats what ive been doing, risky it is...but it's FOREX. If someone knows another way..i'd like to know too
     
  5. jeanevieve

    jeanevieve Recruit

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    Which Is The Fastest Way To Get This Report?

    Dear Henry,
    Please can you advise me on the fastest website where I can access this result as soon as is out.

    Regards
    Juliet
     
  6. KJeff

    KJeff Recruit

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    Hi, that's a good way to trade as well, observation first.
    Hmm, I think I could give that a try but with a minimal amount of course.
    It's really hard when suddenly, the trrend goes against you.

    But I do hope this thing works. Thanks for the suggestion.
     
  7. Brahma

    Brahma Recruit

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    Getting good results but a question

    Hi henry ! i really thank you from the bottom of my heart for helping us regarding trade decision . i am new to forex and now testing your strategies on my demo account , so far getting good results . but one question sir ! you recommend certain currency pair for certain news , for ex you recommend to trade usdjpy on certain news but i see usdcad or eurousd or usdchf producing better result on that particularly news release . so i am little confused , how do we know what currency pair is better to trade on a particular news release ?
     
  8. randycbrown

    randycbrown Recruit

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    News charts and analysis

    Mr. Liu,

    Thanks for your help. Is there a web site where I could obtain the comparisons of historical data associated with a news event? Your inclusion of these historical comparisons are great. I'd like to look them up on my own. Are they proprietary? Is it a subscription? What is that web site?
    Thanks Randy
     
  9. hilariousidiot

    hilariousidiot Recruit

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    Great Advice

    you are a Pip Rainer Henry.. thanks for the signals !!!!
     
  10. pipstatic

    pipstatic Recruit

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    I just did it again with Prelim GDB (gbp/usd). it went down for a bit b4 release but that didnt scare me.
     

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