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Forex Signal (Friday March 9, 2012 - 8:30am EDT) - US NFP Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Mar 8, 2012.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
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    Hello

    Please see m trade plan for today’s NFP employment change, US unemployment rate is forecasted to arrive at 8.3% today we will be trading the Unemployment change number

    US NFP Employment Change
    Forecast 210K
    Previous 243K
    Pair to trade: USD/JPY
    Triggers we need: SELL -60 BUY +60

    Economic Impact: High
    Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends

    About our Triggers:
    If the US NFP Employment Change number comes out at +270 or more, the USD/JPY should go up by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the Long.
    If it comes out at 150 or less USD/JPY should go down by about 45 pips. We are using -60 to trigger to determine our short position entry.


    What is it? Why do we care?
    The Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
    It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.
    The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Method to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    See my views on the Euro crisis

    Pre News
    Prior to the news release (20 minutes) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 2 minute before the actual release earlier. I will look for momentum indicators to see my long trade.

    Spike
    Yes. I would recommend spike trading as an option.

    After Spike
    If you are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 30% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade again. I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart. The main indicator I will use for this retrace is Fibonacci

    Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
  2. tristam15

    tristam15 Recruit

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    Is it not better to trade EURUSD? Why trade USDJPY?
     
  3. mrVynes

    mrVynes Private

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    So it came out at 227, why then did the USD/JPY spike up like that?
     
  4. Mcbenjamin

    Mcbenjamin Recruit

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    ... but the figure was revised to 284.
     

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