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Forex Signal (Mon February 28 2011, 8:30am NY Time EST) - CA GDP m/m...

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Feb 28, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We’ll be receiving the monthly GDP release from Canada today. Here’s the forecast:

    8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.4%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.6%

    The Trade Plan

    I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a 0.0% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.6% or higher… With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.

    For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    Because GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a tremendous impact on the official interest rate, because better GDP equals to higher inflation, and higher inflation means higher interest rate. However, Canada releases its GDP on a monthly basis, which diminishes chances for surprise. As a matter of fact, CA GDP has not been a very tradable release due to the most in-line with expectation figures...

    With USDCAD trading in a new range after breaking below the 0.9800 level, I do believe that in the event of a strong release, combined with the possibility of crude supply disruption from Libya, USDCAD could be set to drop further...

    However, on a weaker release, considering the BOC will not hike interest rate tomorrow, market may find reason to consolidate recent CAD gains and provide some much needed relieve for the pair.

    Additional Thoughts
    USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair does not give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.

    Pre-news Possibilities:
    No Pre-news for this release...

    Definition
    GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”

    For Historical Data & Chart For CA GDP m/m


    Thanks,



    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Feb 28, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Irena

    Irena Private

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    Henry,
    Thanks for your hard work and help.
    Would you suggest any reliable and free sources where the news releases can be heard in real time?
    Thanks again,
    Irena:)
     
  3. DFW

    DFW Private

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    Nice move Henry , I just closed for 35 pips..may have closed too soon but

    I will take it...

    Thanks for your continued help !!

    Pat
     
  4. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    No Trade


    Again, why thank Henry when the deviation didn't even meet Henry's recommended minimum? Henry said trade on deviation of .3. The deviation was +.2. That would mean, if you're following Henry's advice...no trade.

    I also took this trade on the spike using a .2 deviation and did good. But, that was on me...not on Henry.

    Don't get me wrong...I do appreciate Henry's opinion on news...but rarely do I trade his recommended deviations. I've been doing this awhile and I figure out my triggers...then look at a couple of other opinions, including Henry's, just for added perspective.

    Don't thank Henry when you get into a trade on your own. Thank yourself.
     
  5. Philip Benveniste

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    That's correct. I 'm also inserting my triggers which are most of the times more aggresive than Henry's, and I also trade spikes, which if you notice , is not what Henry does. However, I can not omit to say that Henry's fundamental and technical aspect perspective is always assisting.
     
  6. DFW

    DFW Private

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    here is why I thank him.....

    Until I found this place a year ago I never had heard about news trading. I have studied his plan of trading and find it fun and profitable.

    I do not bother to get a calendar because Henry's e-mails alert me. He tells me what to expect might happen and how he would trade it and I make my decision on what I do.

    The only actual releases I hear are the ones on CNBC Squawk Box (USA Stuff) so I just play what the chart does. I play it without stops and ride it as I feel off of MACD and RSI ....................this morning just played the chart and I do not have a clue what the numbers were.

    You know there are a lot of folks sending me e-mail to buy what I get here for free and in my book that is a good deal.

    I appreciate what Henry does and I thank him for it.

    Best wishes,
    the lazy trader

    Pat
     
  7. Iono

    Iono Recruit

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