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Forex Signal (Mon January 31 2011, 8:30am NY Time EST) - CA GDP m/m...

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jan 31, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today. Here’s the forecast:

    8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.4%

    The Trade Plan

    I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a -0.1% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or higher… With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.

    For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    Because GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a tremendous impact on the official interest rate, because better GDP equals to higher inflation, and higher inflation means higher interest rate. However, Canada releases its GDP on a monthly basis, which diminishes chances for surprise. As a matter of fact, CA GDP has not been a very tradable release due to the most in-line with expectation figures...

    With USDCAD trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks, I do believe that regardless of the outcome of this release, USDCAD will ultimately move beyond the current range and stay above parity, therefore we could look for reversal from the bottom end its range on a better than expected release...

    Also keep in mind that BOC is currently holding its rate tightening policy, which may add some selling pressure for the pair if the monthly GDP were to disappoint.

    Additional Thoughts
    USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair does not give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.

    Pre-news Possibilities:
    No Pre-news for this release...

    Definition
    GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”

    For Historical Data & Chart For CA GDP m/m


    Thanks,



    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jan 31, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. yomex_y2

    yomex_y2 Recruit

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    where do i get to see the report?

    hello,
    thnks for the update, i have a question though... how do i get the said report real time when the news comes out ? e.g if it comes out with -0.1%, where do i get to know ? Pardon me if the question sounds silly. thnks once again.
     
  3. mohan02

    mohan02 Private

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  4. salvialover

    salvialover Recruit

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    Iskren

    Looks like it market didn't react this time. Any one trading it?
     
  5. Philip Benveniste

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    Not much of a move

    Hi, I entered short at 0.9981 and scalped in three minutes to exit in 0.9968. That was all..

    Philip
     
  6. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    No Trade


    Did not hit triggers. That would be the reason for the limited reaction.
     
  7. salvialover

    salvialover Recruit

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    Which triggers do you mean. Liu said sell at 0.4%.
     
  8. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Triggers

    Hmmm. The forecasted value I saw (and used) at the time of the trade was +.3. It came out +.4 (deviation of only +.1). Henry had posted a forecast of +.2 and a trigger at +.4. It looks to me that either Henry's forecast was not optimistic enough, or, his trigger was just a bit tight.

    I setup on a deviation of +/- .2 on a forecast of +.3 (no trade). Which turned out to be a better strategy than Henry's, which would of got a person into a sell trade...not good.

    I did not make a trade on this one. Sorry for you guys that did.
     
  9. salvialover

    salvialover Recruit

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    I traded though I didn't se much spike. Entered 0.9972 closed some at breakeven seeing no spike at all, rest closed at -20 pips but I traded small so no big deal.
     
    #9 salvialover, Jan 31, 2011
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2011

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