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Forex Signal (Thu, August 19 2010, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 18, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:

    4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.7%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.2%


    The Trade Plan
    Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.

    Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% to BUY and 0.5% to SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 74%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 0.9% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a -0.2% or worse.

    We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Methods.

    The Market
    Today's MPC Meeting Minutes surprised the market with an unanimous vote against increasing the quantitative easing programor APF. Andrew Sentance was once again the only dissenter voting for a rate hike of 25 basis point in a 1-8 vote against further tightening policy.

    Because of recent BOE Inflation Report and uncertainty in the inflation letter sent by BOE Governor King to the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, market was speculating at least two votes for increasing the Asset Purchasing Facility by another 25 Billion Pound. Needless to say, traders immeidately bought the GBP after the meeting minutes trying to price in this bullish release...

    However, the overall sluggish outlook for UK's economy remains unchanged. I would expect to see long-term bearish trend to resume. Seeing how the market retraced from the 1.5680 level down to the 1.5580 during late NY trading session should be an additional confirmation that the momentum for the GBP rally is short-lived.

    Additional Thoughts
    GBP/USD will need to break and remain above the 1.5700 in order to see further gain. However, with recent housing data, employment data, and the CPI data all pointing to the fact that recovery in UK economy is stalling; and adding the bearish tone from last week's quarterly Inflation Report and this week's Inflation letter by BOE King, we are looking at a possible change of sentiment for the GBP with the first psychological support level at 1.5000 in perhaps 3 months.

    Pre-news Consideration
    With Claimant Count at -3.8K versus -17.0K, tax increases, job cuts, tough austerity measures, and negative fundamental sentiment, it is likely to see limited pre-selling in the GBP prior to the release today. I'd be looking for a pre-news sell on a decent spike up.

    For historical chart & data for UK Retail Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 18, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Falmi Dorlo

    Falmi Dorlo Private

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    Sentiment

    Thanks Henry

    So your statement is a feeling of decline in GBP.
    If retail sales go to trigger the selling, we must keep the second part of the open position for how long?
     
  3. maximmm

    maximmm Recruit

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    The expected release number and prior release number you've provided seems to differ from the one seen on FPI calendar and calendars on other sites.

    Expected release number being 0.3 and prior month's number being 1.

    Am I mistaken, or is your analysis simply based off wrong numbers?


    I'd also be cautious when it comes to selling GBPUSD prior to the release. Although the expected release number suggests a negative bias and probable sell, you have predicted a sell prior to yesterday's minutes meet while in reality we witnessed a major buy (again, prior to the UK minutes).

    Again, correcting expected release number and prior release number is something I'd advice, so that other people here would not be led astray.
     
  4. C. Collins

    C. Collins Private

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    Mr. Henry,
    Good job as usual.....I was able to hammer out approx. 110 pips off the GBP/USD from the news event on Wednesday morning from the 4:30am (NY) news release.....WOW!!!! I have not had this much consistant good luck in a long time..
    Thaks for the good tips,
    C. Collins
     
  5. ochills

    ochills Master Sergeant

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    Thanks Mr Liu

    I was able to make 40 pips from the News Yesterday.
    Pls I want to have a detail understanding of the NEWS.
    how can u help me thanks
     
  6. M.Nazri

    M.Nazri Private, 1st Class

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    Thank you Sir Henry

    Thank you sir for the information you give us for no cent
    i hope,you can LIGHT us for the future trading
    yesterday,i've made USD 2.40 because i use lot only 2 cent per entry....my and my older brother REAL account in ikofx was balance USD 93
    and now,was USD 96.....i use a Buy Stop at price=1.5588 and TP=1.5658
    profit was made= USD 1.40...in Sell Stop at price=1.5665 and hit the Trailing Stop i use at 1.5615 profit was made= USD 1.00
    i hope,you keep up this good work to help others like me when exactly right place to enter the market and ONLY i can say is...
    "GOD BLESS YOU and YOUR FAMILY SIR";)


    btw sir.....what is your oppinion and suggestion what a price will be at GBUSD pair???in this time i wrote this message,the GBPUSD price now at 1.5554....if a possible can price move higher around 1.5700???in my SnR 1.5700,it was at Resistance 2....if true,i can use a Buy Stop and TP at that area....
     
    #6 M.Nazri, Aug 19, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2010
  7. BayoBest

    BayoBest Private

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    Forex Factory Calendar shows the Forecast and Previous as 0.4 and 0.7 respectively.

    The 0.4 Forecast and that of Henry Liu 0.3 should not be any problem as Forecast is always slightly differ. (Read Henry Liu Basic Trading Concept)

    Meanwhile, yesterday pre-news consideration generate more than 65pips in which i made 30pips.

    Let us all continue learning and appreciate the good work of Henry Liu. I made total 65pips yesterday.

    That great indeed

    Sam
     
  8. M.Nazri

    M.Nazri Private, 1st Class

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    GOOD



    Congrates sir......;)
     
  9. Ahmed H

    Ahmed H Private

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    I second that..
     
  10. M.Nazri

    M.Nazri Private, 1st Class

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    price GBPUSD now like jet F-16
     

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