1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Signal (Wed, August 11 2010, 9:30pm NY Time EDT) - AU Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 11, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    473
    Likes Received:
    0
    Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here’s the forecast:

    9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 45.9K
    AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.1% Previous 5.1%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL -10K


    The Trade Plan
    The safe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain steady at 5.1%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

    We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -10K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.

    For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Methods

    The Market
    Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. With RBA on a pause for further monetary tightening policy, if this release also surprise to the downside, it would push AUD beyond current support (0.9000) and we would be looking to SELL AUD/USD as the market is focusing on the recent risk aversion sentiment resulted from the US FOMC statement; however, if the release is better, we should be looking for another push on the AUD/USD back above the 0.9100

    Additional Thoughts
    With AUD/USD reaching above the 0.9200 at a psychological top and with the FOMC statement sending out a bearish message over US's economic outlook, which in term drove up demand for safe-haven currencies (USD & JPY), AUD/USD is finally looking good for a drop as traders rebalance their portfolio to adjust market sentiment. I believe the next support for the AUD/USD is the 0.8900 area, with .08600 being the next target.

    Pre-news Considerations
    AUD/USD should be under pressure from the recent FOMC statement is casting doubt over global economic recovery. It is likely we'll see some selling pressure on this pair, but not from the pre-news as Employment has been a strong area for the booming economy. I would be looking for a possible short-term bounce on account of pre-news, but I am still looking for long-term shorts for this pair and a bounce back could offer opportunities for a SELL.

    DEFINITION
    "Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

    Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change


    Thanks,

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 11, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Pcamargo

    Pcamargo Recruit

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    0
    Dear Henry,
    Thank you for your insight and analysis,
    I have one question: in the " Additional Thoughts" part, you write
    "With AUD/USD reaching above the 0.9200 at a psychological top and with the FOMC statement sending out a bearish message over US's economic outlook, which in term drove up demand for safe-haven currencies (USD & JPY), AUD/USD is finally looking good for a drop as traders rebalance their portfolio to adjust market sentiment. I believe the next support for the AUD/USD is the 0.8900 area, with .08600 being the next target. "

    You write about the bearish outlook for the US economy and that the USD is a safe-heaven currency. I though the CHF and JPY were safe heaven and that is where investors would fly to when in risk aversion mode.

    Can you elaborate on that please?

    Tks and all the best

    Paulo
     
  3. C. Collins

    C. Collins Private

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2010
    Messages:
    20
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trade The News

    Henry,
    Do you post the news once it is released? And where do you post it?....Is there any free service that posts the news once it is made official? Hate to sound cheap but trying to build up the war chest so that I can afford the working tools. :):)
    Thanks for the good work,
    C. Collins
     
  4. iykiatelecom

    iykiatelecom Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2010
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    0
    thank u sir
     
  5. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2007
    Messages:
    250
    Likes Received:
    0
    Easiest way to see this is to look at your charts from Sep 2008 to about March 2009. It doesn't get any more risk aversion mode than that period of time. See how USD strengthened against every currency on the planet (except yen). As an example, look at GU. GBP lost over 5,000 pips to USD during that time. CHF got stronger as well, but it was clearly USD and Yen that got the strongest.
     
  6. Huwee

    Huwee Corporal

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2010
    Messages:
    92
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hey C.,

    There's a number of free news services available - all of which have a bit of a delay in updating. Here's two that a lot of people use:
    • http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex_news_calendar
    • http://www.forexfactory.com/

    These might work for you if you follow Henry's retracement strategy (as per the recommendation in this report) since there's a delay in getting the news but you're waiting for a retracement anyway!

    Then there's ones you pay for which are immediate:
    • http://www.tradethenews.com (free 7-day trial available if they like the look of your LinkedIn profile!)
    • http://www.ransquawk.com (free 7-day trial available)

    Your broker may also provide a news service - double-check with them - but it might have a similar delay to the freebies above!

    Hope this helps!

    Huwee.
     
  7. Pcamargo

    Pcamargo Recruit

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    0
    Thanks for the tip Maru. Very much appreciated it!
    All the best

    Paulo
     
  8. ibham1

    ibham1 Private, 1st Class

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2010
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    2
    Even thought Henry suggests 30k deviation, 15k can work as an aggresive trigger for some quick pips. Unemployment Rate figures is usually a few secs later, as Henry suggest, if rate and change don't conflict it can be a very good trade.
     
  9. Greddy

    Greddy Recruit

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wonder when will I able to trade with this News & Hints? I always read it from Henry but unable to detected the movements. It will be more easier if the News can be turn to Sell or Buy Index with suggested target. Anyway I,m still in learning curves...keep it up Henry...:(
     
  10. Huwee

    Huwee Corporal

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2010
    Messages:
    92
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hey C. Collins,

    I posted a reply a few hours ago but because it contained URLs (links) went to the moderator for approval and looks like they haven't had the time to approve. Here's the same posting without any URLs....

    There's a number of free news services available - all of which have a bit of a delay in updating. Here's two that a lot of people use:
    • forexpeacearmy . com - go up to the menu bar at the top, hover over "Forex Calendar & Tools", then click on "Forex News Calendar"
    • forexfactory . com

    These might work for you if you follow Henry's retracement strategy (as per the recommendation in this report) since there's a delay in getting the news but you're waiting for a retracement anyway!

    Then there's ones you pay for which are immediate:
    • tradethenews . com (free 7-day trial available if they like the look of your LinkedIn profile!)
    • ransquawk . com (free 7-day trial available)

    Your broker may also provide a news service - double-check with them - but it might have a similar delay to the freebies above!

    Hope this helps!

    Huwee.
     

Share This Page