Forex Signal (Wed, August 11 2010, 9:30pm NY Time EDT) - AU Employment Change

[C. Collins]

Good Job Henry I really appreciate your knowledge
OK now that the news is out on the AUD with a number of 23.5K which is between 10K and 50K which way do you go?

Thanks for the help,
C. Collins

 

[C. Collins]

Thanks Huwee, Henry and all others for replying.....YAP....I feel kinda dumb...After I sent out the message I found forex factory news which is actually pretty great for a free servce, especially since this trade is made after the retracement.....
Maybe some body can comment.......The AUD news came out with a 23.5K which is between the 10K and the 50K....So now which way do you turn?
Thanks in advance, C. Collins

 

[Huwee]

Good Job Henry I really appreciate your knowledge
OK now that the news is out on the AUD with a number of 23.5K which is between 10K and 50K which way do you go?

Thanks for the help,
C. Collins

As the deviation from expected wasn't large enough (23.5k actual - 20k expected = 3.5k deviation), the advice is to stay out of the trade.

Secondly (and even more importantly), because the Unemployment Rate was higher than expected which contradicted the higher employment change number, the advice is to stay out.

With Forex there's always another trade that can be made another news release day!

Hope this helps!

Huwee.

 

[C. Collins]

Huwee,
Thanks for the lesson....Have a good morning, day or evening where you may hang your hat and call home
C. Collins

 

[Boko Maru]

As the deviation from expected wasn't large enough (23.5k actual - 20k expected = 3.5k deviation), the advice is to stay out of the trade.

Secondly (and even more importantly), because the Unemployment Rate was higher than expected which contradicted the higher employment change number, the advice is to stay out.

With Forex there's always another trade that can be made another news release day!

Hope this helps!

Huwee.

Actually this was a great trade opportunity. The unemployment rate deviation of 0.2 was quite large, and as I'm sure you can see, resulted in a drop of over 50 pips in AU. So there was almost no deviation on employment change, and a huge deviation on rate; that's not a conflict worth worrying about, and it was completely tradable; clear price action to the downside on the bad unemployment number. And plenty of opps to enter on a retrace.

The rate deviation is almost as important if not MORE important than the change number, something Henry doesn't mention...

 

[Huwee]

So there was almost no deviation on employment change, and a huge deviation on rate; that's not a conflict worth worrying about, and it was completely tradable; clear price action to the downside on the bad unemployment number. And plenty of opps to enter on a retrace.

The rate deviation is almost as important if not MORE important than the change number, something Henry doesn't mention...

Hey Boko - yup - you're quite right right - not *really* a conflict, though I was erring on the side of caution! Probably too cautious :- )

 

[C. Collins]

Hey guys,
After Huwee said it was not a safe trade I bailed out of the trade and was fortunate, lucky or maybe or beginners luck, call it what you want to have gained 20 pips..
Thanks for the cautious heads up.
C. Collins