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Forex Signal (Wed, August 25 2010, 10:00am NY Time EDT) - US New Home Sales...

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 25, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we are likely to see a worse than expected figure. Here is the forecast:

    10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 333K Previous 330K
    ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 400K SELL 260K


    The Trade Plan
    We’ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthened risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY; if the number is higher, it could provide a temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD/JPY.

    We'll be looking for a possible after-news retracement trade. As I have explained in previous analysis, we need to wait for the release, wait for the market to spike, and wait for decent retracement. This is the 3 "W"s of Retracement Trading system. It is especially important to make sure there is a momentum during the spike before jumping in. For more information, read:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    With the general market in risk aversion sentiment, we'll probably see continous demand for USD and JPY. U.S. Housing sector should still remain under pressure because of high unemployment rate, low consumer consumption, tight credit conditions, and supply outpacing demands, not mentioning the expiration of New Home Buyer's Credit...

    Additional Thoughts
    Taking the context of both Asian and European sessions, we may not get much movement from this release if we see excessive reaction coming into NY Session. Therefore use caution even when we get our tradable release.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news for this release. But the general theme is for risk aversion, therefore I'd expect to see stronger JPY and stronger USD throughout the day.

    Definition:
    “Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because the housing market is a leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.”

    Historical Chart & Data For US New Home Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 25, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. ivandpack2

    ivandpack2 Recruit

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    US News

    Dear Henri
    thanks for your help.
    I have a question about News from US.
    Please let me know why sometimes we get negative news for US, but US become strong and sometimes it become weak.
    I get confuse about it. Like yesterday news (Existing Home Sales).

    Thanks
     
  3. kkunlexx

    kkunlexx Private

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    Hi Henry, thanks for the signal. But can someone tell me what is happening to usdcad i entered as you said yesterday because a buy trade was triggered at -0.5 but it turned out to be tragedy. I'm still minus 40pips down. what do i do? will the upcoming news today push it down some more or will it help to push usdcad up so that i can still hold my position? somebody help me. thanks
     
  4. kkunlexx

    kkunlexx Private

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    i need a quick reply please somebody help me. thanks
     
  5. Liquidreality

    Liquidreality Recruit

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    kkunlexx

    Hi there, my indicators say the USD/CAD will rise back to 1.64 and then retrace to 1.46 and then rise again past the 1.7 mark.
    Hope that helps
     
  6. I-ching

    I-ching Recruit

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    If your not trading the spike with a software you need to be careful with just entering late. Also if the market breaks below pre-release price like this one did you might want to kill the trade instead of just holding it. It hung around for awhile up there before falling so you had time.
    As for what to do now since you held it this long there is a good possibility of a move back up to test daily resistance at 1.0675 real strong level. But it could be running out of steam which would mean a move back down to 1.0550 and 1.0500. Hope that helps some.
     
  7. TraderBob

    TraderBob Private, 1st Class

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    Too close to resistance level

    USD\CAD was just too close to the resistance level to trade, it moved way up to the reisistance level from the time Henry gave his news announcement and when the trade acutally occured. Would have been better to stay out.
     
  8. jedward

    jedward Recruit

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    hi there,

    i noticed that in the historical chart for this release that the revision result drive the chart after that. Should we wait for the revision result to be announce then enter the trade?

    Need advice.

    For example last 26/7, previous was 300 and actual result came out as 330. And the chart for 1Minute moving North, then it goes SOUTH after few minutes. Is it because of the revision result? The revision result was 267.

    How long will it takes the revision result announced after the initial result came out? 3minutes? 5 minutes?

    By the way, thanks Henry!
     
  9. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    If you're having to ask on a forum what to do with your position then you're already doomed. You should probably just cut your loss and learn from your mistake, rather than hoping it comes back your way.

    No offense, but just trying to give you some "tough love" and encourage you to not to be another lemming and Henry worshiper that follows him blindly. As you may have noticed, these threads are littered with those kinds of people; don't be one of them.

    As a suggestion for the future, do your OWN research before the news release, and devise your own plan. It's fine to compare what you come up with to Henry's plan and see how close you are to him, but still have your own plan. You can use the FPA calender to look at years of history on all the releases, see what deviations came in for each release, and what the price action was as a result.

    So before the release, know ahead of time what YOU will do, independent of Henry. Know when you'll enter your trade, when you'll take profit, and when you'll exit the trade and cut your losses if it goes bad. If you do that homework ahead of time, you'll never again have to post in a forum to get your answer...
     
    #9 Boko Maru, Aug 25, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  10. Onyebuchim C. Obike

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    Yeah Henry, I had the same experience too. The figures came out lower but market went the other direction.
     

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