1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Signal (Wed August 31, 2011 – 8:15am EDT) – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Aug 30, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    Hello members,

    Today i will like to share the following trade plan.

    ADP Non- Farm Employment change
    Forecast 102k
    Previous 114K
    Pair to trade: USD/JPY

    Numbers we need:
    BUY USD/JPY 147K
    SELL USD/JPY 57K

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 102K
    We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
    If we get 147 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get 57K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of non-farm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.


    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

    My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

    Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Aug 30, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. yurps

    yurps Private

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2007
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    1
    I think these triggers are a bit too tight
     
  3. SpinG1

    SpinG1 Recruit

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2011
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    ADP Non- Farm Employment change

    Numbers we need:
    BUY USD/JPY 147K
    SELL USD/JPY 57K

    Below statement contradicts the above indication. plz pacify.

    "If we get 147 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get 57K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY. "
     
  4. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    Not tight there just right I would go 50 deviation but 45 on spike will ensure you get in as there would be more liquidity.
     
  5. eduardojimenez

    eduardojimenez Recruit

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2011
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    deviation

    Where can I find or see the deviation numbers that you keep on talking about.
     
  6. shortcut77

    shortcut77 Recruit

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2011
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Deviation

    Hi, the deviation is the +- difference from the forecasted numbers. So in this case the forecast is 102K +- dev 45K = 147K and 57K
     
  7. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    If this report triggers with a trigger of 45K you will see the movement just the same if it was triggered at 50K

    Thanks

    Stavro D'Amore;)
     

Share This Page