Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here’s the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 21K Previous 29.7K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.2% Previous 5.4%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL -10K
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to have dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -10K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.
For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods
The Market
Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.
This is probably the last tradable high impact release from Australia for the year. After this release, I believe AUD is going to follow general market risk trend... With that being said, even if we get a huge surprise to the upside (which is highly unlikely), we should still see AUD consolidating its massive gains through the end of the year.
Additional Thoughts
With severeign debt concerns in Europe and China's adamant gesture to curb inflation, AUD should drop against USD. My expectation is to retest 0.9500 in the next few trading sessions, provided that we don't get any risk appetite news to provide support for AUD.
Pre-news Considerations
There are no pre-news consideration for this trade, but my overall bias is to SELL AUDUSD on any significant rally.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change
Thanks,
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 21K Previous 29.7K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.2% Previous 5.4%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL -10K
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to have dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -10K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.
For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods
The Market
Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.
This is probably the last tradable high impact release from Australia for the year. After this release, I believe AUD is going to follow general market risk trend... With that being said, even if we get a huge surprise to the upside (which is highly unlikely), we should still see AUD consolidating its massive gains through the end of the year.
Additional Thoughts
With severeign debt concerns in Europe and China's adamant gesture to curb inflation, AUD should drop against USD. My expectation is to retest 0.9500 in the next few trading sessions, provided that we don't get any risk appetite news to provide support for AUD.
Pre-news Considerations
There are no pre-news consideration for this trade, but my overall bias is to SELL AUDUSD on any significant rally.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change
Thanks,
Last edited by a moderator:
