Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here’s the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 2.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.0% Previous 5.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL 0K
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to stay unchanged at 5.0%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a 0K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.
For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods
The Market
Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.
This release should help to add more pressure to the AUDUSD trend if we get a worse than expected number. On the fundamental front with recent flood and severe weather, there is a potential for a weaker than expected employment release; on the other hand, with global demand for commodities on the rise, many companies may be looking to expand and contribute to higher employment figure. Therefore, this release could come out either way.
Additional Thoughts
With AUDUSD unable to break the psychological and technical level of 1.0200, a worse than expected release combined with recent PBOC interest rate hike, traders may find plenty of reasons to push AUDUSD down below the parity for the very least.
Pre-news Considerations
There are no pre-news consideration for this trade, but my overall bias is to SELL AUDUSD on any significant rally.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change
Thanks,
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 2.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.0% Previous 5.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL 0K
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to stay unchanged at 5.0%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a 0K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.
For more information on my trading methods:
Henry's News Trading Methods
The Market
Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.
This release should help to add more pressure to the AUDUSD trend if we get a worse than expected number. On the fundamental front with recent flood and severe weather, there is a potential for a weaker than expected employment release; on the other hand, with global demand for commodities on the rise, many companies may be looking to expand and contribute to higher employment figure. Therefore, this release could come out either way.
Additional Thoughts
With AUDUSD unable to break the psychological and technical level of 1.0200, a worse than expected release combined with recent PBOC interest rate hike, traders may find plenty of reasons to push AUDUSD down below the parity for the very least.
Pre-news Considerations
There are no pre-news consideration for this trade, but my overall bias is to SELL AUDUSD on any significant rally.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change
Thanks,
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