Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus today. Here is the forecast:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.5% Previous -0.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.0% SELL -0.8%
The Trade Plan
Since this is the second release of the 4th quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of -0.5% and previous release of -0.5% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.
However, we'll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at -0.8% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.0% or better, as I believe the only reason that would justify a short-term LONG on Sterling is definitely a flat or positive figure.
Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
For more information on my news trading methods:
Henry's news trading methods
The Market
With recent market focusing on the situation in Libya, this GDP release may not move the market, especially when it is the 2nd release of the quarterly GDP...
However, with the recent bullish sentiment in GBP and the split vote during last MPC Meeting, traders will look for any reason to BUY GBP, therefore a positive or flat release should justify a BUY.
Additional Thoughts
I'd be possibly inclined to jump in as a spike trade if we get a positive release, I believe market will remain bullish for an extended period of time, possibly extending the move through next week.
Pre-news Consideration
There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.
Definition
Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
Historical Chart & Data for UK Revised GDP
Thanks,
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.5% Previous -0.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.0% SELL -0.8%
The Trade Plan
Since this is the second release of the 4th quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of -0.5% and previous release of -0.5% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.
However, we'll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at -0.8% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.0% or better, as I believe the only reason that would justify a short-term LONG on Sterling is definitely a flat or positive figure.
Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
For more information on my news trading methods:
Henry's news trading methods
The Market
With recent market focusing on the situation in Libya, this GDP release may not move the market, especially when it is the 2nd release of the quarterly GDP...
However, with the recent bullish sentiment in GBP and the split vote during last MPC Meeting, traders will look for any reason to BUY GBP, therefore a positive or flat release should justify a BUY.
Additional Thoughts
I'd be possibly inclined to jump in as a spike trade if we get a positive release, I believe market will remain bullish for an extended period of time, possibly extending the move through next week.
Pre-news Consideration
There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.
Definition
Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
Historical Chart & Data for UK Revised GDP
Thanks,
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