Forex Signal (Wed September 29 2010, 8:30Am NY Time EDT) - CA GDP m/m...

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
473
We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today. Here’s the forecast:

8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast -0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.4% SELL 0.2%

The Trade Plan

I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a -0.4% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.2% or higher… With recent uncertainty in the U.S. economy, a stronger GDP number may provide strong contrast and we should see more demand for CAD; on the other hand, on a worse than expected figure, market turn on CAD... I’ll be looking for a Retracement Trade Method for this release.

For more information on my trading methods, please read:
Henry's News Trading Method.

The Market
Because GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a tremendous impact on the official interest rate, because better GDP equals to higher inflation, and higher inflation means higher interest rate. However, Canada releases its GDP on a monthly basis, which diminishes chances for surprise. As a matter of fact, CA GDP has not been a very tradable release due to the most in-line with expectation figures...

With USDCAD trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks, I do believe that regardless of the outcome of this release, USDCAD will ultimately fall back into this range again, therefore we could look for reversal from the top/bottom end of the range.

Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair does not give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.

Pre-news Possibilities:
We should be looking to BUY USD/CAD on dips.

Definition
GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”

For Historical Data & Chart For CA GDP m/m


Thanks,



 
Last edited by a moderator:

Beroska

Recruit
Messages
1
I dont know why, but i receive all your e-mail ( news trading) late, For example about news on 29th at 8 am, i received at 9 pm!. can this problem can be fixed please?
 

Reda DAIMELLAH

Recruit
Messages
4
Got off quotes

Please can anyone help me, every time I try to place an order at the time of news release, I got off quotes all the time, I have FXDD MT4. Is there any better broker, what about FXCM ???
 

C. Collins

Private
Messages
20
Date & Time

To all who read this blog...The date and time for the above message from Henry is for Thursday morning 8:30am New York Time.
C. Collins
 

rizzo8

Recruit
Messages
3
Dear Henry,

With the US also have some FA news at the same time, would it still be safe to trade the USDCAD?

Especially if both the CAD and USD news are favorable to its respective currencies.

Thanks for the insight.
 

rizzo8

Recruit
Messages
3
Simulataneous news for USD and CAD. So how?

Dear Henry,

With the US also have some FA news at the same time, would it still be safe to trade the USDCAD?

Especially if both the CAD and USD news are favorable to its respective currencies, or unfavorable on both ends.

Thanks for the insight.
 

Huwee

Corporal
Messages
92
I dont know why, but i receive all your e-mail ( news trading) late, For example about news on 29th at 8 am, i received at 9 pm!. can this problem can be fixed please?
Beroska, what timezone are you in?

Try using the calendar feature I mentioned in this weeks "Upcoming Signals Overview" post.

Huwee.
 

Huwee

Corporal
Messages
92
Please can anyone help me, every time I try to place an order at the time of news release, I got off quotes all the time, I have FXDD MT4. Is there any better broker, what about FXCM ???
Rami,

Try reading through the "Forex Brokers Reviews", which is available in the "Revews & Ratings" menu in the top-left.

Might help you get an overview of what's available!

Good luck,

Huwee.
 

Punle

Recruit
Messages
4
So weird... the actual number was right on the forecast, and two other news at the same time were good for the US, yet USD/CAD went way down??? Oh well I can't complain, got 30 pips out of this :D Thanks again Henry.

It's still going down should have waited. How do you know when to get out? Does the news that bring a spike usually move 40 pips or more?
 
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