Forex Signal (Wednesday February 15, 2012 – 9:30pm EDT) – AU Employment Change

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547
Hello All,

Today we have AU Employment Change numbers due to arrive, please be mindful of the bellow trade plan and be diligent with your trading.

AU Employment Change
Forecast 11K
Previous -29.3K
Pair to trade: AUD/USD

Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD 35K
SELL AUD/USD -15K

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: monthly 10 days after month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

About our Triggers:
AU Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 11K
We are looking for a deviation of 25K to the upside to BUY AUD/USD and a deviation of 25K to the downside to SHORT AUD/USD
So the summary is we get 35K or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/ USD/ and if we get -15K or lower I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike.
This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike so I recommend trading the retracement method as stated bellow.

NOTE: We a conflict of AU Unemployment numbers that is due to arrive the same time, This is forecasted at 5.3% and is expected to come at 5.3%.

What is it? And why does the market care?
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in Australia.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in Australia and should be taken as positive for the AUD..

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

There is no Pre news; however in saying this we might see a little sell off in the AUD before the release.

I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

Historical Chart and Data for AU Employment Change

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
 

PipDog

Corporal
Messages
140
Ahhh...yet another chance to play the AU, which is currently the best correlation (with stocks) going in the FX world. I only hope that the news comes out opposite of the stock flavor (risk on/risk off) at the moment.

You may want to be careful about getting into a trade in the direction opposite the current Risk appetite. Risk usually overwhelms the news in a matter of minutes if this occurs...which is just enough time to get into the trade...a potentially bad one.
 

PipDog

Corporal
Messages
140
Ahhh...yet another chance to play the AU, which is currently the best correlation (with stocks) going in the FX world. I only hope that the news comes out opposite of the stock flavor (risk on/risk off) at the moment.

Yeah, something like that! News opposite the Risk Appetite...40 pip spike in the 'wrong' direction...up. Hit this one about as good as I could. I didn't trade the spike...always a concern about news leaking or late fire on Aussie news and getting a good fill on the AUDUSD can be tough. But, I got short at 1.0731 on 2 standard lots, bought those back at 1.0716...15 pips, then got short again at 1.0726 for 2 lots. Just took profit on half at 1.0675...51 pips. I think I'll get a little greedy with the last lot. Currently Asian stocks are down across the board and Dow futures are down about 50. This could be 100 pip profit. Set my take profit at 1.0626, with a stop at break even.

Hope everyone fared well!!


Update: I chickened out when I woke up this am and saw Dow futures headed north. Bought back half position at 1.0664...left the rest with breakeven SL...1.0726.
 
Last edited:

NicoRoets

Recruit
Messages
7
Hi did I miss something here, you said on a negative reading we should go short. But the market when 40+ pips long,
Is the reading to low to be traded or what was the problem here?

Thanks for replying,
Nico
 
Top