Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
Hello members,
Today we have employment change, not much of a change from last time and the expectations are quite similar.
ADP Non- Farm Employment change
Forecast 103k
Previous 91K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 148K
SELL USD/JPY 58K
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 103K
We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
If we get 148 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get
58K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of non-farm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Change
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Today we have employment change, not much of a change from last time and the expectations are quite similar.
ADP Non- Farm Employment change
Forecast 103k
Previous 91K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 148K
SELL USD/JPY 58K
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 103K
We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
If we get 148 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get
58K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of non-farm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Change
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
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