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Forex Signal (Wednesday November 2, 2011 – 10:00am EDT) – ADP Non-Farm Emp Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Nov 1, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello members,

    Today we have employment change, not much of a change from last time and the expectations are quite similar.


    ADP Non- Farm Employment change
    Forecast 103k
    Previous 91K
    Pair to trade: USD/JPY

    Numbers we need:
    BUY USD/JPY 148K
    SELL USD/JPY 58K

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike


    About our Triggers:
    US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 103K
    We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
    If we get 148 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get
    58K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of non-farm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.


    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

    My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

    Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Nov 1, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Julian Lo

    Julian Lo Private, 1st Class

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    Is this correct?
    "If we get 148 or better I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/JPY and if we get 58K or lower I will go LONG on USD/JPY. "

    They are in conflict with the explanations.
    "A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD."
     
  3. forexx.ch

    forexx.ch Recruit

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    I'm not a fundamental analyst, but i would say a good result in the employment will reinforce the usd. So, the upper explanation is false i think, and we have to follow the 2 sentences below...
     
  4. Sivamayam

    Sivamayam Recruit

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    Dear Julian Lo,

    That was a typo error as Stravo is busy in making too much of reports.The correct way is to
    BUY USD/JPY 148K or more
    SELL USD/JPY 58K or less.

    ie.. the statement with out any conflict is

    "A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD."
    For further details on this trade contact me in sivaraj.t@gmail.com
     
  5. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    sorry for typo, as you are aware FPA site has been attacked and im finding it hard to access via a proxy as many IP's are blocked so the delay and the view in what i write is so hard to see
     

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