Forex Trading Signal 05/02/08

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Hi my dear Trader :)

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.



HI-res Review.: http://www.yummyapple.com/5-02-2008review.html

HI-res Preview.: http://www.yummyapple.com/5-02-2008preview.html


Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK Manufacturing PMI. I did not recommend to trade it; it did not deviate much anyway, so it was just a no trade.

At 8:30 a.m. we had US Core PCE. It came out slightly high but not high enough to enter a trade. The Initial Jobless Claims came out higher by 15 K so it slightly hit sell signal on USD/JPY. First few minutes were very tough but then it worked very well. Watch the video for more details.

At 10:00 a.m. we had U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. It did not hit my trigger so it was a no trade. The most aggressive trigger you can use is 1.0 trigger but we got only 0.6 deviation. However, the price moved quite well with 0.6 deviation although it would be too risky to trade with a such small trigger.

At 9:30 p.m. we had Australian Retail Sales which came out pretty close to expectations. It deviated only by 0.2 but the price moved quite well. The price initially moved by 25 pips but again it was not worthy to take a risk.


Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, May 02nd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected to come out at -75K but the expectations range from -150K to -18K. Even the most optimistic economists expects a decline on the job market. I would use conservative triggers here. If it comes out at 0K or positive, then it would be good enough to buy and hold USD/JPY, assuming there is no big conflict with the revision. In such case, you can expect 50 to 70 pips move in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -150K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, hold for a while and expect 50 to 70 pips move as well. Watch out for the unemployment rate. 0.2 is a significant deviation. If it is conflicting, be extremely careful. In general, higher unemployment rate is bad for the U.S. dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for the U.S. dollar.

For tips and suggestions how to trade Non-Farm Payroll, please watch the video. Today's preview video is all about the NFP.

If you want to make some money on nice spikes, try The Secret News Weapon - they also offer 21 days money back policy so try it and see if you can grow your account that way. A nice thing about the SNW is it has not only the autoclick feature but it will also allow you to see other reports so you will immediately know if there are any conflicts, and therefore you would know if you should stay in your trade or get out, or maybe even reenter on the retracement. With a fast market moving I cannot imagine checking on-line forex calendars which are really slow.

If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot



The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
 
Last edited by a moderator:

F-soldier

Recruit
Messages
5
Video's not available

The news trading video is not available, could you please check the link so that we can view it!! Thanks!:unhappy:
 

Pharaoh

Colonel
Messages
19,691
The links to the hi res videos do seem to not be working. I'm watching the YiuTube low-res videos now and they are fine.
 

akglod

Recruit
Messages
1
Tutorial on effect of revision of Market data

Greetings Sir Pipsalot,

I am immensely grateful for your kindness in offering this service to the world.

Being relatively new to the market trading, I humbly appeal for a tutorial on the possible effects a revision of fundamental market data could possibly have on the market with respect to the forecast and actual data using several scenarios like when the actual comes in greater, lesser or equal to forecast in a revised case.

Wishing you and us all many more pipful trading experiences.

Sincerely,

Akglod
(Knight of St. Pips)
 

EZE OBI

Recruit
Messages
4
O'brainy

Hi Sir Pipsalot,
I am so excited to receive your first signal yesterday. Thanks. Sorry to bother you with these questions. I am still a novice and there are lots of terms I do not understand, [a] Non-Farm Paroll, K, -75k, 150k to -18k, 0K or positve,
[c] Job market, [d] Conflict and revision in trading signal [e] 0.2 deviation. I am confused and cannot trade without understanding them please.
Thanks.
recruit O'brainy
 

EZE OBI

Recruit
Messages
4
Hi Sir Pipsalot,
I am so excited to receive your first signal yesterday. Thanks. Sorry to bother you with these questions. I am still a novice and there are lots of terms I do not understand, [a] Non-Farm Paroll, K, -75k, 150k to -18k, 0K or positve,
[c] Job market, [d] Conflict and revision in trading signal [e] 0.2 deviation. I am confused and cannot trade without understanding them please.
Thanks.
recruit O'brainy
 

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Sorry for the belated response. To answer some of your questions:

Non-farm payrolls is the main US employment economic number released usually on the first Friday of the month and gets a whole lot of attention.

K = 1000... so something expected at 75K is really expected at 75000 but no one really prints the three zeros

Job market is well, how well employment is doing. A strong job market is a sign of economic health and usually good for a currency while a poor, weak job market is a sign of stifling growth and has a negative effect on a currency and its interest rates.

Conflict is when 2 or more reports come out at once with deviations (see below) in different directions. In other words, one comes out higher than expected, while another comes out lower than expected. Such conflict can create confusion that can hurt or kill a news trade.

Deviation is the difference between the actual and expected value. For example, if a CPI number has a consensus figure of 2.3 percent, if it comes out at 2.5 percent, then it's coming out with a positive 0.2% deviation. Generally in news trading, the deviation from expectations is far more important than how it did compared to the prior release.

I hope that helps... take care.

-Sir Pipsalot
 
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