Trading the Week Ahead_29th April


Financialsource Representative

In this video, I dive into why monitoring economic calendar events is crucial for traders looking to seize high-probability opportunities. A prime example is the recent Australian dollar CPI print, which underscored the importance of being alert to central banks' shifts in stance—like the Reserve Bank of Australia's move to a more neutral position. This shift indicated potential two-way opportunities, a scenario that played out with the AUD/NZD pair when the CPI data came in stronger than expected.

I walk through the mechanics of these trades, explaining how surpassing expected metrics on key dates, like April 24th, offered clear buy signals. This process isn't just about watching numbers; it involves understanding how to strategically use pivot points and resistance areas to time trades perfectly.

Looking ahead, I outline the critical events for the upcoming week, focusing on several key areas. We start with the state CPI readings out of Germany, an important indicator not just for Germany but as a reflection of the Eurozone's overall inflation trend. While this might not directly present a trading opportunity unless there's a significant surprise, it's crucial background information that could influence broader market sentiments.

Next, I discuss the upcoming Eurozone GDP and inflation data. Given that the base case from the ECB is for rate cuts in June, any deviation in these figures—especially if inflation or GDP ticks higher—could adjust market expectations and potentially offer trading opportunities, especially against pairs like the EUR/GBP.

As the week progresses, attention will turn to the U.S., with consumer confidence and the manufacturing PMI on the agenda. These indicators are significant not just for their direct impact but also for how they might influence Federal Reserve policies. Especially following the surprise in the last U.S. GDP figures and the hotter-than-expected PCE inflation data, the markets are keenly awaiting the Fed's response. Could there be a shift from the anticipated rate cuts, perhaps even hinting at hikes? This is where the real trading opportunities could emerge, as market reactions to Fed communications are often pronounced.

I also touch on other critical data points like the Swiss inflation print and the non-farm payroll data later in the week. Each of these has the potential to significantly move markets, depending on their outcomes relative to expectations.

In essence, this video is all about preparing traders to capitalise on the opportunities that these economic calendar events can offer. By staying informed and ready to act, traders can position themselves advantageously in a market that shifts swiftly on new information. So, tune in, get the insights, and be ready to pounce on the opportunities as they arise.