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Forex Trading Signal 05/05/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, May 5, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Well, we just got a pretty vanila trade out of the RBA Interest Rate statement where they left rates unchanged as expected, but a nice, rosy statement along with the release helped prop up the AUD/USD for a long where we made a small profit.

    Stocks staged an impressive rally today with big new highs, but now we're jutting up against the top of the daily chart channel and may be due for a "turn around Tuesday" round of profit taking lower, but the scope for a bigger pullback to 800 or below is now starting to look less likely. Instead, we may just extend this rally to our final target of the area around 1000 on the S&P 500. Since the larger retracement opportunity to get in long for that rally seems less and less likely to occur, I'm going to shift into buying smaller dips and channel support instead of merely TPing short positions on selloffs. Right now I'd be looking to buy in the 855-875 range. Gold has pushed fervently up against trendline resistance, but remains contained and is a great short in the 900-909 range where it presently is as I mentioned yesterday.

    A rally through the recent 919 highs would increase the odds of further bullish potential and is a good place for a mental stop if you get in here.

    The EUR/USD is working higher but pushing up against channel resistance extremes, so a rally near yesterdays highs or even a modest breakout higher may create a good short opportunity, so I'm looking to get in short in that region with a limit sell.

    For news Tuesday:

    1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing and Bernanke Testimony - ISM Non-Manufacturing on its own is a mediocre indicator good for maybe a 30 pip move on EUR/JPY, but I would focus more on the Testimony from Bernanke. He's set to testify on the economic outlook and any emphasis on those "green shoots" and optimism will lead towards risk appetite (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY higher), and a more sobering warning of risks and bad news to come will push markets towards risk aversion (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY lower).

    2130 Australia Retail Sales - I don't think this is a good trade to focus on this month, so we're skipping it.

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