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Forex Trading Signal 06/11/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jun 11, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    We saw some see-saw action on the EU and GU and while the turn towards a longer term downtrend is still the higher probability here, we could face some further strength in the near term, especially if we get good retail sales out of the U.S. and/or bullish equity markets on Thursday. EUR/USD will likely trade short term bullish working towards the highs around 1.4140 or even the 78% retracement at 1.4211 before capping out and turning lower. Stocks right now seemed to have formed yet another triangle pattern, this one with short term bullish implications. From what I can see is that there's about a 70% chance we trade up to new highs on the S&P in the 965-985 range over the next 4-10 days before turning the corner for a very deep selloff. The other 30% chance is that we manage to break through the 920-923 support shelf before hitting new highs and start the steep selloff now. On Wednesday we got a buy signal on NZD/USD that gave plenty of time to get in and managed a nice 70-100+ pip rally depending on how long you stayed in. AUD/USD also gave a near buy signal and managed to rocket up 70 pips as well going much further than I thought, so some decent price action yesterday. For tomorrow's news, there's only one worth trading:

    0830 US Core Retail Sales (+0.2% expected) - We've seen some very nice trades with strong price action on this report with relatively small deviations, so look for a nice trade here if we get a surprise.
    If it comes out at +0.7% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
    If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.

    We're also getting NZ Retail Sales, but this number rarely gets worthwhile price action, so it's probably better to play it safe and stay out of it.

    *EDIT* at around 0235 we had some USD bullish commentary from the ECB about SDR's not being able to functionally replace USD as a reserve currency, so the short term EU and GU strength part of the picture may not play out as envisioned. Either way, the longer term trend is still very likely down on both pairs.

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    #1 Crazy Cat, Jun 11, 2009
    Lasted edited by : Jun 11, 2009
  2. jlnh

    jlnh Recruit

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    highs on the S&P in the 765-785 ?

    That should be 965-985 - no doubt



     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Yes, it was a typo. I meant to say 965-985, sorry. I went up and edited the original post.
     
    #3 Sir Pipsalot, Jun 11, 2009
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2009
  4. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Sir Pips accidentally posted the numbers for the S&P for next month. :p
     
  5. Hypochondriac

    Hypochondriac Recruit

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    Have a quick question. Can you recommend a good news source to find the numbers ASAP?
     

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