Hey folks,
Sorry I didn't have time to put together a video for tonight. Just swamped right now so I'll keep this short and sweet. Basically, the expectation is Trichet dovishness tomorrow. I'm definitely biased south on EUR/USD.
At 7:45 we get EUR Interest rates expected to hold steady at 4.25%, but some are speculating that they may cut rates. This will likely keep the EUR/USD under pressure for most of the session. Once rates are affirmed as unchanged, we'll likely see some sort of push up on EUR/USD. If this happens, I'll look to short it at some sort of resistance and hold it into Trichet's speech since it's likely to be quite dovish. Conversely, if they actually do cut rates, we'll want to chase it short as long as the price isn't too horrible. Lastly, if the EUR/USD is incredibly weak and sells off hundreds of pips or something obscene overnight... Trichet's speech might actually reverse the EUR/USD higher since so many people sold EU on the rumor he would be dovish, then they would need to cover during or at the end of the speech. Of course, what Trichet ends up saying will have an effect upon the ultimate direction, but that is hard to preview effectively.
Good luck trading tomorrow guys.
--Sir Pips
Sorry I didn't have time to put together a video for tonight. Just swamped right now so I'll keep this short and sweet. Basically, the expectation is Trichet dovishness tomorrow. I'm definitely biased south on EUR/USD.
At 7:45 we get EUR Interest rates expected to hold steady at 4.25%, but some are speculating that they may cut rates. This will likely keep the EUR/USD under pressure for most of the session. Once rates are affirmed as unchanged, we'll likely see some sort of push up on EUR/USD. If this happens, I'll look to short it at some sort of resistance and hold it into Trichet's speech since it's likely to be quite dovish. Conversely, if they actually do cut rates, we'll want to chase it short as long as the price isn't too horrible. Lastly, if the EUR/USD is incredibly weak and sells off hundreds of pips or something obscene overnight... Trichet's speech might actually reverse the EUR/USD higher since so many people sold EU on the rumor he would be dovish, then they would need to cover during or at the end of the speech. Of course, what Trichet ends up saying will have an effect upon the ultimate direction, but that is hard to preview effectively.
Good luck trading tomorrow guys.
--Sir Pips