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Forex Trading Signal 10-28-2009

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Oct 28, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    I've got family visiting, so I'm going to try to keep it brief tonight. The Euro has continued its selloff even further past our entry price on the short last night and remains under some pressure. The evidence is pointing towards a more major USD strengthening reversal that should last at least weeks, but could last months, so I'm looking for at least 1000 pips on the Euro short before I close the last of it (obviously take some profits sooner as discussed yesterday). If you missed out getting in short at 1.4900 or better, it's still not horrible getting in near here around 1.4800, you'll just have to use a 300 pip SL instead of 200 and be prepared for a bit bumpier of a ride.

    Stocks consolidated somewhat today after many failed attempts at a rally. My best guess short term is that we ease lower around 1050 and set a multiday low somewhere in that region between now and Friday. I plan to close most of my shorts there and wait for either a better price on a bounce, or higher probabilities accompanying a break of key support in that region before jumping back in.

    We kind of missed the boat on shorting Gold and silver so far, but with the strong potential multiday low coming into play here in both stocks and commodities between now and the end of the week, I'd prefer to stay out and wait for a healthy bounce before considering shorting.

    In news Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence came in significantly lower than expected, and EUR/JPY made a great move for us down 60 pips in the first 10 minutes which is a bigger move than it usually makes. Thanks to the identified EUR/USD downtrend, the price never really recovered and we're now 170 pips lower as I type this. AU CPI figures came out too close to expectations for much of a trade. In news Wednesday:

    0830 and 1000 US Core Durable Goods and New Home Sales - I think both of these figures have potential, but they've been big busts lately in providing us good predictable price action to make money from. To play it safe, I'd rather see these indicators give great reactions at least once before I consider trading them again. While I think news is doing quite well in the last couple weeks and these indicators may be due for a comeback, I don't want to throw money at them too soon, so I'm going to refrain from giving specific recommendations on them.

    1600 NZ Interest Rate Decision (no change at 2.50% expected) - There is very little chance of a surprise move at this decision, so most of the price action will be in response to the statement released and the tone it contains. Markets are expecting the RBNZ to raise interest rates within the next 12 months, and any especially hawkish tone with focus on inflation will shorten that time window to 6 months and lead towards NZD/USD strength. On the other side, if they maintain a very cautious and neutral tone, the markets will probably be disapoointed and the NZD/USD should exhibit weakness. How much and for how long depends on the severity of the statements.
    If it comes out at 2.75% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 70+ pips.
    If it comes out at 2.25% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 100+ pips.

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    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Oct 28, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2009
  2. M.Nazri

    M.Nazri Private, 1st Class

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    Thank you sir very much......i hope you enjoy with your family.......god bless you and your family......i will take a chance to short EU........thanks again;:D
     
  3. tsam

    tsam Recruit

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    Trading style

    Nazri,

    I'm a newbie at this. I've been following this forum for a while now, trying to learn what i can. You seem to be able to trade the news by Sir Pips quite well, judging by your comments. Can you share your trading method, i.e do you make straddle orders prior to the news release or ?? What have you found to be an effective method for trading the news?

    Thanks for your help.
     
  4. sopel

    sopel Private

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    i think that the Core Durable goods would be better than expected... between 1,5-2 so im going to buy usd/jpy 2 minutes before release. Hope it would work great :)
     
  5. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    There are a lot of different ways to try to take advantage of news volatility, but a lot of it depends on what types of orders your broker is able to handle and how they process them. Maybe when I have some spare time at some point in the future I'll write an article with 10 detailed methods of capitalizing on news volatility. Because I run a trading room, I tend to focus on scalping the price action after the initial 20 second surge so that my trades are easily replicable and everyone can get a similar price. Doing that on your own though definitely takes some experience, but I try to offer advice on that when I see patterns or tendencies worth mentioning.
     
  6. bhasspoken

    bhasspoken Recruit

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    Times

    Dear Sir

    I live in the UK and would like to know what time you start and finish trading in your trading room, this is important to me if i decide to join you on your new site.

    Kind regards
    Glen
     
  7. davidiyaji

    davidiyaji Recruit

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    News Brokers

    Hi Sir Pipsalot,
    You know trading at news times or immediately after the news could be somewhat difficult as brokers tend you give you requotes after requotes until the action is almost or completely over. Kindly advise a broker/brokers who we can confidently place market or pending orders during news events.:unhappy:
     
  8. ayngel

    ayngel Recruit

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    Very Very interesting! Please keep us informed when you can write this article. Thanks and best wishes for your family with your new baby.
    Angela
     
  9. tsam

    tsam Recruit

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    10 methods to capitalize on news volatility...wow, fantastic. I look forward to seeing that article - sooner the better, as i'm not doing too well trading this news thing at the moment.....

    Cheers,
     
  10. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    This can vary even within a broker. If you make modest amounts of money during news trades, you may stay under their radar. If you start doing really well, then you'll suddenly encounter requotes and other issues.

    First, make sure your broker even accepts news trades (ask them). Otherwise, they might just cancel the trades later.

    For this style of trading, an STP or ECN broker is your best bet. Even then, watch out for stupid broker tricks.

    This should help:

    How to select a Forex Broker
     

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