Mark Miller (FortFS)
FortFS Representative
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
06.08.2015
Fundamental analysis
The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects.
The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month.
The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand.
The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease.
Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.
The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date.
The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5.
The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.
There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September.
The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards.
The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
06.08.2015
Fundamental analysis
The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects.
The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month.
The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand.
The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease.
Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.
The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date.
The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5.
The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.
There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September.
The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards.
The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.