Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

IvanGlobalPrime

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Better Risk Conditions Ahead Of The FOMC

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

‘Risk on’ conditions made a comeback as US equities showed a better bid on hopes of vaccines to treat COVID-19 by the end of the year, even if you wouldn’t be able to tell such shift in dynamics judging by the performance of the Yen, an outlier on Monday.

The overall flow dynamics were kind of a mix-bag as the US Dollar did indeed give back some ground amid the better mood, yet the Aussie and Canadian Dollar were also for most of the day under pressure. The Aussie in particular got sold early on the day on speculation that the RBA could be laying the ground for further monetary policy easing.

As NAB research team notes: “A couple of AFR articles, seemingly well “sourced”, were suggesting the RBA was considering further monetary policy easing by buying federal and state government bonds further along the yield curve to bring interest rates down, complemented with a cut in the cash rate from 0.25% to 0.10%.”

The main winners included the Kiwi, the Pound and metals. The outlook on the latter is still uncertain near term as it consolidates the Q2 gains in a broad range while the Pound, after the worst losing streaks this year, aside from the COVID-led fall, saw shorts covering. As per the Kiwi, the combination of risk-on alongside plans to lift some of the virus restrictions appear to be the major contributors.

As a reminder, this week’s volatility in FX will be mostly concentrated around the outcome of the FOMC scheduled for Wednesday. Until then, it’s unlikely that the market will find new drivers aside from the recurring Brexit headlines, to still be a catalyst for GBP vol, while the EUR may too enjoy the momentum gained post last week’s ECB.

In terms of new trading opportunities, below I share a couple of trades that were made available in line with the TT pattern that I look to exploit every day. In the first chart, a long in EUR/USD around the London open went for a 3:1 risk reward, while in the overlap of Europe and US, a short in GBP/JPY also popped up in what’s still an ongoing yet free trade by now.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Hot Trade Of The Day
To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.




Insights Into Market Studies


In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.

Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

The FOMC Set To Gather All The Attention

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.



Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The time has come to start fully shifting the focus away from any second-tier events and be locked and loaded for the real fireworks in the form of the FOMC outcome (4.30 AEST), including both the Fed statement as well as Fed’s Chairman Powell press conference. Will the Fed continue to deliver on the ultra-dovish expectations in line with its new regime of AIT (Average Inflation Targeting) policies?

Volatility in FX, while awaiting the real risk event in the US afternoon, was quite decent, especially in the likes of the Oceanic currencies, both strengthening, spurred by better Chinese data where there is finally evidence that Chinese consumers are coming back, risk-on in stocks and the revelations as part of the RBA minutes that the Central Bank is in no hurry to alter its monetary policy settings in the near term.

The RBA Board Minutes repeated the easing bias from the September meeting with no further hints on what may come next. The Minutes did stick to the same dovish line from previous meetings noting that “the Board continues to consider how further monetary measures could support the recovery”. On the AUD, slightly more dovish remarks were made, noting “broadly aligned with its fundamentals” but “a lower exchange rate would provide more assistance…”

What’s also been quite noticeable this week has been the buy-side flows in the Japanese Yen non-withstanding the reversal in risk dynamics to a more constructive environment. This improved mood, as a reminder, continues to be rather oblivious to the fact that in the US there continues to be lack of progress on another US fiscal package as political games/brinkmanship is at peak ahead of the election.

Which takes us to the next key question. Will the Fed fell obliged to fill the void amid the unwillingness of politicians to agree on the fiscal side? Or will the Fed prefer to hold off any renewed commitment on further QE by first letting the storm (election) pass and being in a position to make better informed decisions after that? That’s why the forward guidance will be absolutely critical this time.

The recent adoption of a new regime whereby the Fed proactively seeks a sustainable boost in inflation makes this a key meeting where Powell needs to clarify what this will mean for the balance sheet and the rates outlook going forward. The reaction in the USD will be a by-product of the behavior we’ll see in inflation expectations (breakevens) and ‘real’ Treasury yields, the main barometers for equities, Gold, and the Dollar to take a directional gauge from.

Amid this new new monetary policy regime they set out last month called ‘Average Inflation Targeting’ (AIT), the Fed must remain credible so they need to inform the market how that will be achieved and massage the message in a way that doesn’t disappoint. As I mentioned in my previous notes, if the Fed hints at more expansionary policies to keep expanding its balance sheet, there are real risk of a lower USD. However, if they fail to properly communicate their plan of action, the more combatant stance seen in the USD as of late may continue. Either way, volatility will see a major spike.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.

Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Low Vol FOMC Outcome, USD Better Bid

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The main takeaway from the FOMC is that interest rates in the US will be depressed at the lowest bound for longer. After all said and done, it appears as though the Fed is making it clear that it has no intentions to fiddle with the rates setting policy until at least the end of 2023 judging by the median forecast of members in the dot plot charts.

Volatility-wise, the FOMC turned out to be rather disappointing. The net effect was a solid bid in the USD and the JPY in line with the turnaround in US equities as the market was left unconvinced of the dovish message. The Pound, battered as of late, was again the currency topping the leader board Cable in a mix of further short-covering and a repricing as PM Johnson appears to ease the threat against EU trade negotiations amid the internal bill controversy, while the Euro ended up under-performing the rest of its peers.

Going back to the FOMC statement, it noted: “The Fed will maintain the Fed Funds rate within the 0-0.25% target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”

As per new inputs on its QE intentions, the Fed re-phrased ever so slightly the message in what appears to be an attempt to communicate a stance a tad more aggressive by now saying that the bond purchases are meant to not only be supporting the market function but also to “help foster accommodative financial conditions”. Other than that, the forward guidance, which was described by Powell as a ‘powerful one’ going forward, didn’t contain any explicit references to further QE.

As part of Fed’s Chairman presser, we were left with more questions than answers, which means Powell did his best to sound as vague as he could in order to tame down market volatility. Gotta give it to him as he did accomplish low market movements indeed. Ironically, the one aspect we now have more transparency on is that the Fed’s forward guidance will now be more outcome than time-based, which honestly, is not telling us much about the future intentions as they now more than ever become heavily linked to ongoing fundamental dynamics.

Going forward, it’s another day packed with economic data releases with high chances to have a significant impact on currencies. We started the day with a -12.2% print in the NZ Q2 GDP, which was not as bad as feared (-12.5% were the expectations). Later on the August Labour Force report in Australia is due, followed by the BoJ monetary policy meeting. As we move into European hours, the EU final CPI readings are scheduled ahead of the BoE meeting. In the latter, with the employment and inflation outlook weakening, alongside a fragile recovery amid COVID-19 restrictions and the EU-UK trade deal uncertainty, the BoE may soon hint at further easing.

Shifting gears to FX charts, the FOMC has left us with a EUR/USD still trapped in no man’s land within its 2 cents range, while GBP/USD returns to retest the 1.30 round number. Meanwhile, the struggles in the Aussie to break through 7340 are evident even if the bullish trend in the daily is unquestionable. The Kiwi’s outlook looks even brighter. USD/CAD, price action wise, looks very choppy and with no discernible directional bias. Gold is also unable to break through its range top in the daily either. Last but not least, and for a change, watch USD/JPY momentum as it’s finally broken out of its daily range.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day
To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.

EUR/JPY presented a great short opportunity that I sadly missed by 1 pip yet makes me glad to know others got in. The 15m timeframe (left chart) shows an initial bullish price delivery only to see stops raided before a sudden bearish reversal trapping longs. From there, after a retest of what used to be support-turned-resistance, the market went straight into the profit target, even exceeding it by an addition 3 RR.


Insights Into Market Studies


In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.

Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts


The Fortitude Of Asian/Oceanic FX Stands Out

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.



Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The USD had a bad day as the FOMC-induced gains were erased to the point that the currency ends the day as the worst performer across the FX board even if the net daily gains/losses for in most currencies were all compressed in a paltry +/- 0.2% range.

That’s how tight these markets have turned out to be in recent weeks with ranges still predominant in the vast majority of pairs. Even the British Pound, one of the only exceptions displaying volatility above the depressed levels elsewhere also ended up with little net changes for the day after being jigsawed in both directions.

We had two main catalysts in the unfolding of vol in the Pound. Firstly, it plummeted on news that the BOE is mulling to go down the route of negative interest rates at some point in the near future. Secondly, what sent the Pound back up, were comments from Ursula Von Der Leyen (The President of the European Commission), who stated that she remains “convinced” that a EU-UK trade deal is still possible.

We also learned in the early hours of the Asian session that the Australian jobs report for August came spectacularly hot at +111k vs -35k expected with the unemployment rate at 6.8% vs. 7.7%. Even the full time/part-time employment split was a solid one. In New Zealand, the Q2 GDP reading wasn’t as bad as feared, while in Japan the BOJ monetary policy meeting came with no surprises.

Technically speaking, these markets remain in a topsy-turvy state with no clear directional biases in the higher timeframes. This is true in pairs where European and North American currencies are involved. There are some exceptions such as the out-performance of the Asian FX complex (AUD, NZD, JPY). It is especially head-scratching to see the Oceanic currencies doing so well after the falls in equities as of late, which speaks volumes of the underlying strength in these two.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead




Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts


Imbalance Of Flows Mainly In Yen And Kiwi

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

There has been and continues to be for the most part a serious entanglement in currency flows with a very limited number of pairs exhibiting congruence in trends when studying the combination of 4-hour and daily charts. A few exceptions exist but not a whole lot.

There was a chance that last week’s FOMC could ignite new life to the markets but other than a near-term spike, the market has spoken and it judges Powell’s stance in this new ‘average inflation targeting’ as not sufficiently committal towards more easing.

The S&P 500 has fallen for 2 weeks in a row following diminishing prospects of US fiscal stimulus, the FOMC not filling the void, extremely high valuations, a controversial US election and the pick up in COVID leading to renewed global lockdowns on the rise.

The only multi timeframe trends to be found as per the combination of 4h+daily where an acute imbalance of flows has and still exist involve crosschecking the weakest links against either the Yen or Kiwi. The Yen has been in a way front-running and exceeding in proportional terms the move down in stocks while the Kiwi has been invigorated by Central Bank-related news, not as dovish as anticipated.

On Friday, Finance Minister Robertson told Bloomberg TV that the RBNZ has made it clear and provided “certainty” by stating that it will stand pat on rates “until at least March next year. ” The statement by the NZ FinMin reinforces the view from RBNZ’s forward guidance and even exceeds it as previously the talk was for February to cut rates.

Heading into this week, the series of fundamentals events lined up are not precisely very encouraging to see the majority of currencies breaking away from the current ranges. At least not in the likes of the US Dollar or the Euro. More chances exist of movements in the Pound or the Yen amid the vol around the EU-UK trade talks and stocks. The Kiwi will also be a major contender to see a spike in vol mid this week as the RBNZ monetary policy is due. Pay attention nonetheless to Fed’s Powell, BoE’s Bailey, RBA’s Debelle appearances and Flash PMIs.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Risk-Off Returns With A Vengeance

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

Plenty of markets are finally coming back to life following tight ranges in most pairs. What’s driving these sell-side flows in equities, which have finally hit hard the sentiment in Forex, where the USD has regained its dominance, is anyone’s guess.

There are several schools of thoughts as to what’s driving the markets: Is it the diminishing prospects of US fiscal stimulus amid political brinkmanship? The FOMC not filling that void? A rethink of valuations ahead of the US election? A second wave of COVID-19 in Europe/US leading to renewed global lockdowns?

What do you notice in the above list of potential drivers? It’s all largely subjective, hardly quantifiable to incorporate as part of an edge to trade, and for the most part, is almost always going to be talked about to fit the narrative of today’s market movements.

Instead, in the Daily Edge report, while not ignoring when fundamental drivers are well timed leading to an adjustment of valuations, I’d rather focus on the right side of the charts, that’s where the value is inn order to anticipate tomorrow’s news today.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day
To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.


Insights Into Market Studies


In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts


USD Strength Is The Story Of The Week

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The story of the week is the strength in the US Dollar. This move is definitely very meaningful and carries behind the type of real-money commitment that has finally allowed some huge technical milestones.

The equally-weighted USD index has transitioned into bullish reads in the daily chart both structurally and momentum wise. What this means is that the currency should now be seen through the lenses of an overall bullish trend until this outlook negates.

The Japanese Yen, while unable to level up the performance by the US Dollar in the last 48h, is nonetheless the other currency that definitely stands out as the implosion in equities continues amid the admissions by Fed’s Chairman that the Fed has done all it can think of so far. This seems to have resulted in renewed selling interest in risk assets.

On the other side of the equation, with money flowing out of commodities and stocks, the Oceanic currencies, not long ago the darlings of FX, have hit particularly hard. The combination of back to back losses in equities, the fall in Silver/Gold and the appreciation of the US Dollar set out an awful contextual setting to deal with.

When looking at the EUR and GBP indices, both remain chopping around. The former found little volatility around the European ‘flash’ PMIs where manufacturing reads came quite solid, especially in the engine of the continent as is Germany, even if in stark contrast with poor flash services PMIs. The GBP saw a better tone on the back of its own PMI readings where manufacturing came slightly improved.

In terms of trending markets, it continues to be a very conducive environment to trade in congruence with multi-timeframe trends since the imbalance of flows in risk-off currencies (especially in the USD) against the rest of peers have been particularly one-sided as of late. In today’s video I will touch on this current environment, on the hot trade of the day and to top it off will look at the indices outlook.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day
To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade. Today’s is a long in USD/CHF.


Insights Into Market Studies


In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.

Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Small Reversal In Risk Sentiment

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

It was largely an undecisive and choppy day in the markets on Thursday with both the USD and the Yen giving back a small portion of the huge gains made over the last week. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar outperformed, followed by a solid run in the Euro and Pound. The Aussie and the Kiwi saw a small round of buying too at last.

But the conviction in a protracted recovery in risk sentiment is simply not there yet. When looking at the US equity market, which becomes the bellwether to take directional gauges in the rest of global indices, the S&P 500 went back and forth within a 1.5% range only to end eking a marginal gain for the day. The same can be said for the Nasdaq.

By the end of the day, we are none the wiser. In terms of trending markets, we are still predominantly in the midst of a decent environment to jump on developing trends, especially when cross-checking risk-off currencies against the Oceanic complex. Some shorter term opportunities are also up for grabs to long CAD.

On the fundamental front, US jobless claims came with few variations, not acting as a catalyst for volatility. Earlier in Europe, Germany’s IFO survey saw a minor uptick in business confidence, but don’t add too much weight as other sub-indices disappointed. Going forward, it’s a quiet day in the economic calendar with only US durable/capital orders and NY Fed President Williams talking on COVID-19 job market impacts, even if no surprises expected post FOMC.

Also, heading into the weekend, I picked up the following by NAB: “Some relief is in store for Victoria with Premier Andrews likely to ease lockdown restrictions on September 28 given the 14-day moving average for Metro Melbourne at 26.7 has moved below the 30-50 benchmark required for easing of restrictions. Also be watchful for a revised re-opening schedule given the sharper than expected fall in virus numbers – the AFR notes Victoria only recorded 5 new virus cases yesterday, which was the third single-digit day of reported cases this week when accounting for reclassifications.”

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day
To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade. Today’s is a follow up in USD/CHF.


Insights Into Market Studies


In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.

Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts


Order Flow Tells Us USD & JPY Rule In FX

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.



Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen were the clear winners last week, while the Oceanic currencies and Gold were decimated. Sandwiched in the middle we find a group of four currencies (EUR, GBP, CAD, CHF) characterized by a far less acute imbalances of flows. US equity indices have been fairing far better, which helps explain the stalling in aggressive buy-side flows in the USD, JPY from earlier in the week.

Fundamentally, all eyes will be on the first televised debate between Trump and Biden on Tuesday and the subsequent poll reactions. Should Trump come up ahead in the debate, that likely to be perceived as a ‘risk on’ play for the markets. Besides, any news on the US fiscal support front will also be closely scrutinized, while on the other side of the pond the EU/UK trade talks will too take the limelight. Later on Friday, US labour market data is also due (last before the US election).

As we kick off a new week, I’ve taken the time to provide my take on the state of affairs in the currency markets from an order flow perspective by adding a new script I call ‘OFA’. What this does is to create in the chart zig-zag type studies of the most recent buy and sell-side waves based on breaks of fractal breakouts and whether or not buyers or sellers become the new force in control. I then account for the magnitude and velocity of each wave alongside the aggregation of tick volume in each leg to get a global objective read.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Studies

In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Better Risk-On Mood, GBP Stands Out

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.



Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The strength in the British Pound was the stand out feature on Monday amid less pessimism over a no trade deal between the UK-EU coupled with growing chatter that the BOE won’t go down the route of negative rates in the near future. The final round of negotiations are upon us ahead of the EU leaders’ summit on October 15th.

On the negative rates, Deputy Governor Ramsden set the ball rolling for the GBP reinvigoration after it tamed down the chances of negative rates in the near term, a view shared by Governor Bailey. Deputy Governor Ramsden said “I see the effective lower bound still at 0.1 which is where Bank Rate is at present” and on negative rates “we are not about to use them imminently. It will take time to do this work”.

Overall, the vibes in the market place were far more propense to bid risk as reflected by the strong gains in equities, which in turned benefited the likes of the Aussie and kept the USD and JPY pressured. Be reminded, however, that the pullback in the latter two only represent a marginal hiccup in an otherwise strong bullish trend.

In today’s video analysis, I keep hammering home the concept of order flow analysis based on fractal structures. Not only I demonstrate how the read of order flow could have gotten us long in GBP/NZD, but I also study the latest ebbs and flows in the equally-weighted Forex indices through the hourly chart, which gives us a more granular view of the latest buy/sell-side business in the last 24h of trading activity.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day
To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade. Today I exhibit a long trade example in GBP/NZD based off order flow fractal structures.


Insights Into Market Studies


In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead




Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 
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