Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, July 27 - 31, 2020

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,893
Fundamentals

So, gold starts to shine this week, finally showing the action that we were talking about and waiting for few weeks, or even months. Those driving factors that we've mentioned since unprecedented Central Bank liquidity supportive measures just could not show no impact. They could not pass unsigned like nothing has happened. They are too strong for that. And now we see starting point of this process. 1900$ is just a beginning. Probably we will see more...much more. Headlines explain this as rising US-China tensions, like it is just temporal moment. But we know that there is the fundamental background stands behind and US/China relations is not the major factor.

Safe-haven gold pierced the $1,900 per ounce ceiling on Friday for the first time since 2011 as a worsening U.S.-China row added to fears over the hit to a global economy already reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

“Concerns about more global economic slowing due to the increasingly acerbic U.S.-China spat is seen as likely to keep global government and monetary support going even longer,” said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO.


In yet another escalation, China ordered the United States to close its consulate in the city of Chengdu, responding to a U.S. demand for China to close its Houston consulate. This hammered risk sentiment and sent the dollar to a two-year trough.

Further bolstering bullion’s appeal was the constant surge in COVID-19 cases, with the U.S. tally crossing over 4 million and global infections breaching 15.58 million.

“The only thing I can see to take the wind out of gold’s sails is the rapid development of a coronavirus vaccine, because until that happens, all this uncertainty (in markets) will stay with us,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.

Non-yielding gold has surged over 25% this year, underpinned by low interest rates and stimulus from central banks.

A further slide in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note staying below 0.6%, damped financial stocks. The 10-year Treasury note fell 1.4 basis points to 0.5807%. Oil prices fell 2% as the surge in coronavirus cases triggered fears of a hit to demand and the latest U.S.-China spat outweighed the benefit of a weaker dollar.

“Financials are just going to have a tough time participating if we stay this low, that being the second-largest sector in the S&P 500,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.

Investors have flocked to the safe-haven metal as they seek shelter from a potential reversal in pumped-up stock prices and a possible rise in inflation following the enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world.

U.S. diplomats are clearing out of the Chengdu consulate after their Chinese counterparts were ordered to quit Texas in the latest round of tensions. Markets sold the moves, but not too much because nobody’s mentioned tariffs. Yet caution is warranted. This represents a big push towards de-coupling with Mike Pompeo saying the “old paradigm of blind engagement” is done. Currency markets are advising care; the yuan had its steepest three-day selloff since late March and the U.S. dollar is tanking for the fourth straight week.

COMING FED MEETING

The number of outright failures of U.S. small businesses in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic was comparatively modest, but the months ahead look far grimmer as cash balances dwindle, federal help expires, and the disease surges back.

That outlook, taking shape from a range of research in recent weeks by business organizations and think tanks, suggests a reckoning awaits Federal Reserve officials and other policymakers who rolled out support quickly in March and April, and by June seemed hopeful an economic rebound was taking root.

After the Fed’s June 10 meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said “assuming that the disease remains or becomes pretty much under control, I think what you see is...an expansion that builds momentum over time.” The 7-day moving average of daily deaths that day was showing a steady decline and the number of new coronavirus cases was under 20,000.

Both have turned higher, with daily new cases nearing 70,000. When the central bank meets next week it will have to re-calibrate its outlook around a new wave of infections policymakers had initially excluded from their baseline view of a steady rebound in the second half of the year.

While no updated economic projections are due at the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, its policy statement and Powell’s press conference could describe the turn the economy seems to be approaching, with no clear sense that a robust reopening can proceed without risking faster coronavirus spread.
1595750962598.png



May and June saw unexpected gains in employment as states lifted the virus-related restrictions that brought the economy to a halt in March and April.

Data released by Yelp this week showed the possible underside of that - a close correlation between user postings about bars and restaurants in May and the turn in infections that took root in June. States that have been more successful in controlling the virus, like New York, also have higher percentages of businesses reporting as closed in surveys by groups like Alignable.
1595751068872.png

Bars are considered a particular hot spot for transmission, and states like Florida and Texas have reinstated restrictions on them. Overall, a Goldman Sachs “lockdown index” combining information on official restrictions and social distancing data, turned higher in early July after falling steadily from April’s peak.
1595751050528.png


After slashing interest rates to near zero and engaging in huge asset buying, the U.S. Federal Reserve will probably sit on its hands at the July 28-29 meeting.

Markets are seeking clues on its next move. The Fed doesn’t seem keen on yield curve control or negative interest rates. But if it wants to rely on asset purchases and forward guidance only, it might eventually need to expand QE, Fedwatchers reckon.

Also, this QE programme has spread purchases of Treasuries pretty evenly across the curve, while the last two rounds focused on the long end. Many predict the Fed will opt to up purchases in the 20- to 30-year bracket; that will keep in check the term premium - the extra return earned from holding long-term bonds.

Yet Fed Governor Lael Brainard recently mentioned the "thick fog of uncertainty" surrounding the U.S. economy. So for now, the Fed might just wait for that fog to dissipate.

1595751115041.png



U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday said that the Trump administration supports extending enhanced unemployment benefits until the end of the year in the next round of coronavirus aid, albeit at a reduced level. The administration and the U.S. Congress have been trying to strike a deal on the next aid package as enhanced unemployment benefits of $600 a week that Congress approved earlier in the pandemic expire on July 31.



Mnuchin said he had spoken on Friday with top Democrat in Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has said she does not want a short-term extension of unemployment insurance.

“We don’t want a short-term extension either, we want something till the end of the year,” said Mnuchin, who was in the Capitol on Saturday with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to meet with staff of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on finishing up details of the package.



Mnuchin said last week Republicans were looking at an extension of unemployment benefits that replace 70% of wages, an idea he repeated on Saturday. “We want to make sure that there’s a technical correction, so that people don’t get paid more money to stay home than to work,” he said. Mnuchin said he expected initial language of the legislation to emerge on Monday.

Meadows suggested that a deal on a standalone bill on unemployment benefits could be reached before the July 31 deadline, leaving time on other issues to help Americans deal with the economic slowdown from the pandemic.

REAL GOLD VALUE

Here, guys, I also would like to share with you an interesting article that I've found recently. It comes from Fathom Consulting, by the way. Here is what they write:

Gold has performed well through the COVID-19 crisis, returning some 20% year to date. Since the early 1970s there have been two major spikes in the real price of gold. The first was almost certainly a consequence of rising inflation uncertainty, as convertibility of the US dollar came to an end. The second, which began in the early 2000s is ongoing. Gold bugs might argue that it again reflects fears about currency debasement. But that does not fit with measures of inflation expectations, such as inflation breakevens, which remain well contained. A more plausible explanation is the steady decline in the real risk-free rate, driven in part by QE, which has pushed all asset prices higher (They confirm what we were talking about within few months!!). If we look at data back to the 1830s, the real price of gold appears to mean revert. But mean reversion is slow. On average it takes close to five years for the real gold price to move just halfway back to its long-term average. And if a slower-than-expected recovery from the economic consequences of COVID-19 pushes government debt higher and real yields lower, while causing some to worry even more about currency debasement, it may yet rise (much) further from here.

1595751458840.png


CFTC Data

Recent COT report shows that gold keeps bullish sentiment well. Net long position has increased, although speculators do not add too much. Open interest has increased significantly - for ~60K contracts. As a result net long positions is coiling around "old ultimate level" of 260K level. New "pandemic" ultimate level stands at 350K level:
1595751998725.png

Source: cftc.gov
Charting by Investing.com


The bottom line


Currently, guys, we do not see any signs of weakness in any of our driving factors. Just lets base our conclusion on Fathom theory of gold growth. Here is what they have written: "if a slower-than-expected recovery from the economic consequences of COVID-19 pushes government debt higher and real yields lower".
And I would ask you - are you ready to invest money for 10 years in US bonds for ~0.6% annual rate? Within recent three months US government has printed ~ 20% of US GDP. Is it really big difference in such background to get no return or to get 0.6%? I see no big difference. And definitely, in such background I would put money into gold. Yes, it provides no return, but the safety degree just is not comparable to US paper. They can't print gold.
Second - do we see on horizon that these liquidity "measures" should end soon? Nope. As intention of US administration, as situation in US economy suggests the opposite - more stimulus should come. Thus, we've answered and suggest that "government debt higher and real yields lower" tendency should continue. It means that following Fathom's statement also is correct - it may yet rise (much) further from here.
And these are just financial factors. We also have politics. There are a lot been said about US/China tensions and here I would like to add President's run. It could become real nightmare for US political system.

Technicals
Monthly


So, on monthly chart market has exceeded all previously specified targets and now even challenging the 1920 top area. Thus we need to increase the scale to see what next destination point we could get. Now it seems that we have historical AB-CD pattern and nearest COP extension stands at ~2100$ area. Still, I have to remind you again, that market is at overbought here. I can't forbid you to take long position, as gold is a specific asset and it could keep rising paying no attention to technical indicators. But I have to warn you in terms of probabilities that we are at overbought. You have to make your own decision on whether you stand with probabilities and wait for the pullback to buy gold, or, you ignore the probabilities and just jump in here. Difficult to predict who will be correct in result, as driving factors behind the gold are really strong. Personally, I'm waiting. But I do not want you to accuse me, if rally will continue without us. That's why it should be your personal decision.

gold_m_27_07_20.png


Weekly

On weekly chart is overbought as well and no signs of retracement yet. Still, here we could point few moments that could become useful later. First is, hardly retracement will be deeper than 1732 area by few reasons - driving factors are strong and stable, weekly oversold stands at 1708, previous top is 1765 and, finally - we have K-support. Thus we could say that 1730-1760 area is our perfect range for long entry.

Applying of harmonic swing tells that pullback could be even smaller, just to the first level at 1816. But, right now it is impossible to foresee definitely. Market at strong overbought and theoretically it suggests stronger downside reaction. Weekly oversold looks as logical destination for that.
gold_w_27_07_20.png


Daily

On daily and intraday charts we could try to catch only short-term tactical trading setups, at least until major retracement starts. Thus, on daily, It seems that we could treat recent action as the thrust for DiNapoli purpose. Yes, it is not perfect and 2nd part is faster than the first one, but in general, it is acceptable for B&B trade if we will get it. Here is 1800-1816 area looks good this task:
gold_d_27_07_20.png


Intraday

The same story is here - nested suitable thrust for potential DiNapoli B&B or DRPO trades. But again - no signs of pullback yet.
gold_4h_27_07_20.png
 

kris82

Private, 1st Class
Messages
34
Sive, I would personally add ONE more very important for gold point. Commercials are heavily long on dollar index which is strongly opposite correlated to gold. I would be really very careful going any long now.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,893
Commercials are heavily long on dollar index

Thanks for valuable add-on Kris, I've missed to check it. Just to explain the others - commercials means "Hedgers". They usually open position in opposite direction to anticipated action of the asset. As they "extremely" long it means that they are hedged against dollar's drop. In other conditions it could mean that dollar should drop and gold goes up. But as they "extremely" long, it means the opposite thing and dollar could reverse showing upside retracement, that is promised downside retracement to gold.
 

RogerTC

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
250
Fundamentals

So, gold starts to shine this week, finally showing the action that we were talking about and waiting for few weeks, or even months. Those driving factors that we've mentioned since unprecedented Central Bank liquidity supportive measures just could not show no impact. They could not pass unsigned like nothing has happened. They are too strong for that. And now we see starting point of this process. 1900$ is just a beginning. Probably we will see more...much more. Headlines explain this as rising US-China tensions, like it is just temporal moment. But we know that there is the fundamental background stands behind and US/China relations is not the major factor.

Safe-haven gold pierced the $1,900 per ounce ceiling on Friday for the first time since 2011 as a worsening U.S.-China row added to fears over the hit to a global economy already reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

“Concerns about more global economic slowing due to the increasingly acerbic U.S.-China spat is seen as likely to keep global government and monetary support going even longer,” said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO.

In yet another escalation, China ordered the United States to close its consulate in the city of Chengdu, responding to a U.S. demand for China to close its Houston consulate. This hammered risk sentiment and sent the dollar to a two-year trough.

Further bolstering bullion’s appeal was the constant surge in COVID-19 cases, with the U.S. tally crossing over 4 million and global infections breaching 15.58 million.

“The only thing I can see to take the wind out of gold’s sails is the rapid development of a coronavirus vaccine, because until that happens, all this uncertainty (in markets) will stay with us,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.

Non-yielding gold has surged over 25% this year, underpinned by low interest rates and stimulus from central banks.

A further slide in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note staying below 0.6%, damped financial stocks. The 10-year Treasury note fell 1.4 basis points to 0.5807%. Oil prices fell 2% as the surge in coronavirus cases triggered fears of a hit to demand and the latest U.S.-China spat outweighed the benefit of a weaker dollar.

“Financials are just going to have a tough time participating if we stay this low, that being the second-largest sector in the S&P 500,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.

Investors have flocked to the safe-haven metal as they seek shelter from a potential reversal in pumped-up stock prices and a possible rise in inflation following the enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world.

U.S. diplomats are clearing out of the Chengdu consulate after their Chinese counterparts were ordered to quit Texas in the latest round of tensions. Markets sold the moves, but not too much because nobody’s mentioned tariffs. Yet caution is warranted. This represents a big push towards de-coupling with Mike Pompeo saying the “old paradigm of blind engagement” is done. Currency markets are advising care; the yuan had its steepest three-day selloff since late March and the U.S. dollar is tanking for the fourth straight week.

COMING FED MEETING

The number of outright failures of U.S. small businesses in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic was comparatively modest, but the months ahead look far grimmer as cash balances dwindle, federal help expires, and the disease surges back.

That outlook, taking shape from a range of research in recent weeks by business organizations and think tanks, suggests a reckoning awaits Federal Reserve officials and other policymakers who rolled out support quickly in March and April, and by June seemed hopeful an economic rebound was taking root.

After the Fed’s June 10 meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said “assuming that the disease remains or becomes pretty much under control, I think what you see is...an expansion that builds momentum over time.” The 7-day moving average of daily deaths that day was showing a steady decline and the number of new coronavirus cases was under 20,000.

Both have turned higher, with daily new cases nearing 70,000. When the central bank meets next week it will have to re-calibrate its outlook around a new wave of infections policymakers had initially excluded from their baseline view of a steady rebound in the second half of the year.

While no updated economic projections are due at the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting, its policy statement and Powell’s press conference could describe the turn the economy seems to be approaching, with no clear sense that a robust reopening can proceed without risking faster coronavirus spread.
View attachment 56053


May and June saw unexpected gains in employment as states lifted the virus-related restrictions that brought the economy to a halt in March and April.

Data released by Yelp this week showed the possible underside of that - a close correlation between user postings about bars and restaurants in May and the turn in infections that took root in June. States that have been more successful in controlling the virus, like New York, also have higher percentages of businesses reporting as closed in surveys by groups like Alignable.
View attachment 56055
Bars are considered a particular hot spot for transmission, and states like Florida and Texas have reinstated restrictions on them. Overall, a Goldman Sachs “lockdown index” combining information on official restrictions and social distancing data, turned higher in early July after falling steadily from April’s peak.
View attachment 56054

After slashing interest rates to near zero and engaging in huge asset buying, the U.S. Federal Reserve will probably sit on its hands at the July 28-29 meeting.

Markets are seeking clues on its next move. The Fed doesn’t seem keen on yield curve control or negative interest rates. But if it wants to rely on asset purchases and forward guidance only, it might eventually need to expand QE, Fedwatchers reckon.

Also, this QE programme has spread purchases of Treasuries pretty evenly across the curve, while the last two rounds focused on the long end. Many predict the Fed will opt to up purchases in the 20- to 30-year bracket; that will keep in check the term premium - the extra return earned from holding long-term bonds.

Yet Fed Governor Lael Brainard recently mentioned the "thick fog of uncertainty" surrounding the U.S. economy. So for now, the Fed might just wait for that fog to dissipate.

View attachment 56056


U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday said that the Trump administration supports extending enhanced unemployment benefits until the end of the year in the next round of coronavirus aid, albeit at a reduced level. The administration and the U.S. Congress have been trying to strike a deal on the next aid package as enhanced unemployment benefits of $600 a week that Congress approved earlier in the pandemic expire on July 31.



Mnuchin said he had spoken on Friday with top Democrat in Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has said she does not want a short-term extension of unemployment insurance.

“We don’t want a short-term extension either, we want something till the end of the year,” said Mnuchin, who was in the Capitol on Saturday with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to meet with staff of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on finishing up details of the package.



Mnuchin said last week Republicans were looking at an extension of unemployment benefits that replace 70% of wages, an idea he repeated on Saturday. “We want to make sure that there’s a technical correction, so that people don’t get paid more money to stay home than to work,” he said. Mnuchin said he expected initial language of the legislation to emerge on Monday.

Meadows suggested that a deal on a standalone bill on unemployment benefits could be reached before the July 31 deadline, leaving time on other issues to help Americans deal with the economic slowdown from the pandemic.

REAL GOLD VALUE

Here, guys, I also would like to share with you an interesting article that I've found recently. It comes from Fathom Consulting, by the way. Here is what they write:

Gold has performed well through the COVID-19 crisis, returning some 20% year to date. Since the early 1970s there have been two major spikes in the real price of gold. The first was almost certainly a consequence of rising inflation uncertainty, as convertibility of the US dollar came to an end. The second, which began in the early 2000s is ongoing. Gold bugs might argue that it again reflects fears about currency debasement. But that does not fit with measures of inflation expectations, such as inflation breakevens, which remain well contained. A more plausible explanation is the steady decline in the real risk-free rate, driven in part by QE, which has pushed all asset prices higher (They confirm what we were talking about within few months!!). If we look at data back to the 1830s, the real price of gold appears to mean revert. But mean reversion is slow. On average it takes close to five years for the real gold price to move just halfway back to its long-term average. And if a slower-than-expected recovery from the economic consequences of COVID-19 pushes government debt higher and real yields lower, while causing some to worry even more about currency debasement, it may yet rise (much) further from here.

View attachment 56057


CFTC Data

Recent COT report shows that gold keeps bullish sentiment well. Net long position has increased, although speculators do not add too much. Open interest has increased significantly - for ~60K contracts. As a result net long positions is coiling around "old ultimate level" of 260K level. New "pandemic" ultimate level stands at 350K level:
View attachment 56059
Source: cftc.gov
Charting by Investing.com


The bottom line


Currently, guys, we do not see any signs of weakness in any of our driving factors. Just lets base our conclusion on Fathom theory of gold growth. Here is what they have written: "if a slower-than-expected recovery from the economic consequences of COVID-19 pushes government debt higher and real yields lower".
And I would ask you - are you ready to invest money for 10 years in US bonds for ~0.6% annual rate? Within recent three months US government has printed ~ 20% of US GDP. Is it really big difference in such background to get no return or to get 0.6%? I see no big difference. And definitely, in such background I would put money into gold. Yes, it provides no return, but the safety degree just is not comparable to US paper. They can't print gold.
Second - do we see on horizon that these liquidity "measures" should end soon? Nope. As intention of US administration, as situation in US economy suggests the opposite - more stimulus should come. Thus, we've answered and suggest that "government debt higher and real yields lower" tendency should continue. It means that following Fathom's statement also is correct - it may yet rise (much) further from here.
And these are just financial factors. We also have politics. There are a lot been said about US/China tensions and here I would like to add President's run. It could become real nightmare for US political system.

Technicals
Monthly


So, on monthly chart market has exceeded all previously specified targets and now even challenging the 1920 top area. Thus we need to increase the scale to see what next destination point we could get. Now it seems that we have historical AB-CD pattern and nearest COP extension stands at ~2100$ area. Still, I have to remind you again, that market is at overbought here. I can't forbid you to take long position, as gold is a specific asset and it could keep rising paying no attention to technical indicators. But I have to warn you in terms of probabilities that we are at overbought. You have to make your own decision on whether you stand with probabilities and wait for the pullback to buy gold, or, you ignore the probabilities and just jump in here. Difficult to predict who will be correct in result, as driving factors behind the gold are really strong. Personally, I'm waiting. But I do not want you to accuse me, if rally will continue without us. That's why it should be your personal decision.

View attachment 56060

Weekly

On weekly chart is overbought as well and no signs of retracement yet. Still, here we could point few moments that could become useful later. First is, hardly retracement will be deeper than 1732 area by few reasons - driving factors are strong and stable, weekly oversold stands at 1708, previous top is 1765 and, finally - we have K-support. Thus we could say that 1730-1760 area is our perfect range for long entry.

Applying of harmonic swing tells that pullback could be even smaller, just to the first level at 1816. But, right now it is impossible to foresee definitely. Market at strong overbought and theoretically it suggests stronger downside reaction. Weekly oversold looks as logical destination for that.
View attachment 56061

Daily

On daily and intraday charts we could try to catch only short-term tactical trading setups, at least until major retracement starts. Thus, on daily, It seems that we could treat recent action as the thrust for DiNapoli purpose. Yes, it is not perfect and 2nd part is faster than the first one, but in general, it is acceptable for B&B trade if we will get it. Here is 1800-1816 area looks good this task:
View attachment 56062

Intraday

The same story is here - nested suitable thrust for potential DiNapoli B&B or DRPO trades. But again - no signs of pullback yet.
View attachment 56063

Just want to mention the trend push on daily timeframe.

gold_d_27_07_20.png
 

Joshnix

Corporal
Messages
100
I got in at 1457 and took profits at 1700. I have been waiting for a decent drop with nothing available. Hope you're right and we see a retracement of any kind soon or we might as well watch 2500 from afar.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,893
Greetings everybody,

So, here we see very similar situation to EUR - Gold makes us to wait not too long as it seems that pullback starts. We have W&R of long-term top of 1920 - stops have been grabbed and Gold turns to downside retracement.
On daily chart, as motion is just has started, we can't precisely estimate the target. But again, initially we stick with harmonic swings. First approximation of pullback points on 1865-1880 support area on daily chart. And potentially this is the level where daily B&B "Buy" could start. So let's focus on this area first:
gold_d_28_07_20.png


On 4H chart, the minor setup that we discussed in weekly report is already triggered - this is B&B "Buy" trade as well, but of a minor scale. The top in a shape of perfect bearish engulfing pattern confirms that this was W&R, guys...
This B&B suggests long entry at K-area, upside pullback should be for 30-35$ per contract, to 5/8 Fib resistance from the top (not shown here).
gold_4h_28_07_20.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,893
Just to be clear. W&R at the top is rather bear or bull signal?
Short-term bearish. It means that action has happened just to lick stops, not for major breakout and continuation at current moment.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,893
Greetings everybody,

Overall situation has not changed too much on gold market, but some technical moments we should mention. On daily chart picture is the same - the thrust, harmonic swing, and we're still watching for some DiNapoli pattern, B&B or DRPO. Nothing is really new here:
gold_d_29_07_20.png


On 4H chart our B&B "Buy" is completed perfectly, but now we have the question - what's next?
gold_4h_29_07_20.png


And here is we have two scenarios - either direct downside AB-CD pattern, or wash&rinse of "A" top and forming some more extended reversal patterns. Personally, guys, I'm tending to the 2nd scenario. In current situation with strong momentum on the back, it is absolutely not in gold's habit to show AB-CD's. I would suggest some upside action, W&R of A top, or even more extended action that could give, say, Butterfly "Sell" pattern on 1H chart. So, I gravitate to idea of more extended reversal pattern, either Double Top, or even H&S, started with butterfly.
At the same time we do not talk on direct upside continuation up from here, as market is OB as on monthly as on weekly chart. This should be a kind of W&R.
Thus, theoretically we could get AB-CD's that I've drawn on the chart, but more probable is a flirting with the top and appearing of larger patterns...
 
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