Market Reports by GulfBrokers - 2023

[syamfx2020]

Bulls are holding ground on the last trading day of the week, the last trading day of the month, and the last trading day of the quarter. The US dollar turned more bullish following the release of upbeat US economic data and stocks in the US which ended in positive territory on Thursday.

Today again the US economic data completely dominate markets. Investors wait for one of the most awaited economic events of the week US PCE inflation data for more clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps. Markets are currently assigning a nearly 87% chance the Fed will raise the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month.

The PCE inflation data is set to be released at 12.30 GMT. The consensus is that Fed's preferred inflation will increase to 4.6% on an annual basis from April’s 4.4%.

EQUITIES

European shares regain momentum after the latest Eurozone inflation data indicated that inflationary pressures in the Euro Area had cooled down in June. Eurozone inflation fell more than expected to 5.5 percent in June, its lowest rate since the start of last year. While US stock futures hold weekly gains, and the further direction will depend on US GDP figures which will release later today.

OIL

Oil prices are turning in a fine performance on Friday, extending gains from the previous session despite the strong dollar and strengthening bets the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. The recent bullish sentiment is supported by a larger-than-anticipated decline in US inventories from the US Energy Information Administration and API.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, EURUSD extends the fall and slipped to a fresh weekly low of 1.0840 after the release of weak German employment data. The data showed Germany's unemployment rate edged up to 5.7 percent in June 2023, exceeding both the preliminary estimate and market expectations of 5.6 percent. Meantime, improved risk sentiment and positive economic indicators in Australia favor the Australian dollar against the Euro and dollar.

GOLD

Gold price remains under pressure after a set of strong US data bolstered the view that the Fed will likely keep rates higher for longer. During the previous session, the metal broke below the psychological support area of $1900 after the release of robust US economic data. The overall momentum remains mixed for the long term as the improvement in the risk appetite of the investors is shifting the focus from safe-haven assets.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the U.S. real GDP printed 2% annual growth in the first quarter of the year, higher than the 1.3% estimated earlier. Weekly jobless claims fell to 239,000, well below expectations of 264,000.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – PCE price index: GMT – 12:30

US – Michigan consumer sentiment : GMT – 14:00

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: EURUSD price drops towards 1.0830. The currency pair is expected to be extra volatile today due to the month-end volatility. Technically the short-term trend looks bearish after heavy selling pressure and the medium-term support is still around 1.0820 then 1.0790.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0820 and 1.0790 Resistance- 1.0870 and 1.0910.

GOLD: Gold price needs to stay above 1900; otherwise, 1890 and 1880 may be visible soon. On the upper side, if the metal breaks and closes above 1914 then the next resistance area to watch is around 1920/26.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1900 and 1888 Resistance- 1920 and 1926.

Quote of the day – “Always trust your intuition, which resembles a hidden supercomputer in the mind. It can help you do the right thing at the right time if you give it a chance.” - Michael Steinhardt.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-679

 

[syamfx2020]

Global markets and Wall Street ended last week on a positive note supported by upbeat US economic data and mega tech stocks rally. On the other hand, the soft PCE inflation numbers gave traders confidence that the Federal Reserve will curtail its hawkish tones on inflation. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, shows that overall price levels are continuing to cool down.

This week the market will get more information about the central bank’s path ahead to digest when Federal Reserve will release the last meeting minutes on Wednesday, which investors may closely scrutinize for clues on rate hike timings in the second half of 2023. Meantime, Investors will also likely keep a look at the economic releases which include the release of the US employment report, RBA rate decision, Eurozone retail sales, and US ISM PMI.

GOLD

Gold reversed from Friday’s gains as investors remain concerned about the prospect of further monetary tightening. Fundamentally the gold price is expected to be extra volatile from Wednesday onwards due to a busy economic calendar and all eyes remain on Friday’s US employment data. The NFP data might influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to act more aggressively.



Technically the current price action signals suggest that a medium-term bearish trend remains intact. On the downside, the decline is more extensive, and it will be hard to rule out a run toward $1890 and $1880 if the bearish momentum continues. On the flip side, the metal needs to stay above $1930 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. If the gold price breaks and closes above $1930, the next upside level to watch is $1945/48.

DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. Dollar currency Index started the new week of trading on a bullish note as chances of a July rate hike increased. On Friday, DXY ended slightly lower after data showing a slowdown in PCE inflation offered fresh evidence of easing price pressures due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive policy tightening. The crucial NFP data and FOMC minutes this week will be the key economic data points that could determine the next move for the currency.



The king dollar remains above 103 despite the retreat, and the initial bias remains neutral for the upcoming week. The key resistance is located for the index around 103.60, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 104 and 104.30. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 102.70 and 102.40 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 102 regions.

EURUSD

The currency pair ended flat last week as easing inflation expectations sparked hopes for less aggressive interest rate hikes. The latest Eurozone CPI report showed that inflation fell more than expected to 5.5 percent in June, its lowest rate since the start of last year. This week, the movement of the US dollar is likely to significantly affect the currency pair. The latest Eurozone retail sales and German factory orders arrive on Thursday. That's the next piece of major economic news that could alter the ECB's thinking on interest rates.



This week, good support is expected at the 1.0840/30 area, with this zone having held last week while further down, demand is also expected around 1.0770, which will act as the next area of support. On the flip side, the first immediate resistance level for the pair is 1.0940, then the stronger resistance is 1.0970/80, which is important to be stable above it for a continuing rise above 1.1000 levels.

DOW JONES

Dow Jones and other key US indices ends on a strong note last week. The upside momentum was boosted by a stronger-than-expected US GDP and jobless claims figures. US GDP from Q1 was revised up and Jobless Claims fell in the third week of June. While Dow futures started the new week slightly lower with little activity and low volatility ahead of the early close of US markets on July 3 and the Independence Day holiday on July 4. For the Dow, the main attraction for this week is Investors waiting for the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting after the release of soft PCE inflation data last week.



Technically, the medium-term trend is very supportive, and the index has room to climb If the upside momentum continues. On the upper side, considering upside pressure there are chances that the Dow can easily rise towards the next key resistance of 34,600 then the 34,800 area. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 34,150 and then 34,000 zones.

Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/weekly-review-gold-usd-eurusd-and-dow-jones-85

 

[syamfx2020]

Shares of luxury electric vehicle (EV) maker Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) rebounded from a new 52-week low of $5.46. The stock surged more than 13% last week and the stock gained another 2.4% to $7.06 in pre-market trading Monday. The upside momentum was supported by two major announcements.

One of the main announcements, once again Saudi Arabia's investment fund has transferred a cash injection to EV maker Lucid. According to a filing with Lucid, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) reported the acquisition of 259.69 shares of LCID stock. It is a $1.8 billion purchase that represents nearly 15 percent of the total shares outstanding prior to issuance. The acquisition has increased PIF’s ownership stake from approximately 60% to roughly 65% of the total common shares.

One of the other major breakthroughs, the company has revealed a significant partnership with British luxury sports car manufacturer Aston Martin. This partnership involves Aston Martin purchasing products from Lucid, and in return, Lucid receives cash and stock. As part of the agreement, Lucid Motors will acquire a 3.7% share in Aston Martin and receive up to $236 million in cash and stock. The deal gives Aston Martin access to Lucid's compact and powerful twin-motor drive unit, which uses a pair of radial flux electric motors, as well as battery technology. After the deal was announced Aston Martin’s stock price also increased by 10.76%.

“This partnership will represent a landmark collaboration between Aston Martin, a storied marque with a rich history, including winning at Le Mans and its current successes in F1, and the very best of Silicon Valley innovation and technology from Lucid.” Lucid, CEO Peter Rawlinson said.

Check out the original article here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/why-lucid-group-stock-surged-13-last-week

 

[syamfx2020]

The Australian dollar remains volatile after the RBA decision. The currency pair initially fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by holding rates unchanged in its monetary policy meeting. The central bank decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 percent following a 25-basis point lift last month. However, RBA indicated that some further monetary tightening may be needed to ensure inflation returns to its target of between 2%-3% within a reasonable time frame.

“In light of this and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the board decided to hold interest rates steady this month. This will provide some time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.” - RBA governor Philip Lowe said.

EQUITIES

European and UK shares opened flat as the price movement is seen as cautious due to the thin trading volumes and absence of any major economic data. US stock and bond markets are closed today in observance of US Independence Day. The US markets will resume normal trading hours on Wednesday.

OIL

Crude oil prices started the new week on a positive note as Saudi Arabia announced that it would extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day to August. While the oil prices ended the day slightly lower after Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia will reduce its oil exports by 500,000 bpd next month. Moving ahead, global cues such as the FED's hawkish stance, trends in dollar strength and US crude inventory report are expected to drive investors' sentiments in the remaining days of this week.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the king dollar ceded ground in Asia on Tuesday with greenback bulls still struggling to find strong upside momentum. The EURUSD rebounded back to above 1.0900 after the currency pair found buyers near the key support area of 1.0870. Moving ahead, no important economic events are expected from the Eurozone in the first half of this week, so the US dollar movement will continue to play a vital role in the Euro's future direction.

GOLD

Gold price ended slightly higher on Monday following the release of weaker-than-expected ISM services PMI data. As of this writing, the metal trades above $1925. Considering the recent rebound, the overall momentum remains mixed as investors continued to bet on further Federal Reserve tightening to bring decades-high inflation under control.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 46 in June 2023, from 46.9 in May and below forecasts of 47. The reading points to the fastest rate of contraction in the manufacturing sector since May 2023. 2020. On the other hand, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at a six-month low of 46.3 in June of 2023.

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: For the euro, the first nearest support level is located at 1.0870. In case it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located near 1.0840. On the upside, 1.0940 will act as an immediate and strong hurdle while 1.0970 will be a critical resistance zone because, above this, bulls are likely to dominate.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0870 and 1.0840 Resistance- 1.0940 and 1.0970.

GOLD: The metal rebounded back to 1930 during the North American session on Monday. For today, the next resistance is located around 1934, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 1945. On the flip side, any break below 1920 again then the next support near 1914 followed by the 1910 level.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1920 and 1914 Resistance- 1934 and 1940.

Quote of the day – If your goal is to trade like a professional and be a consistent winner, then you must start from the premise that the solutions are in your mind and not in the market. Mark Douglas.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-680

 

[syamfx2020]

The largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) shares slightly reversed today in the pre-market trading session. The stock bounce more than 13% on Monday after the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and Nasdaq named Coinbase in their refiled applications to launch a spot bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund. In the updated filings, Cboe proposed Coinbase as its partner in the "surveillance-sharing agreement," that would enable Cboe to improve oversight and prevention of market manipulation and fraud.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had previously rejected CBOE's application, citing concerns about fraud and market manipulation. Cboe also resubmitted applications to several other companies looking to launch BTC spot funds last week. These include Fidelity, WisdomTree, VanEck, and Invesco, which all list Coinbase as a custodian-sharing partner. These filings followed a significant regulatory crackdown on the digital asset sector, with the SEC filing lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance for alleged rule violations.

EQUITIES

European stocks made slim gains on Wednesday while US stock futures trades slightly lower as investors waiting for the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June 13-14 meeting, which is set to be released later today. The minutes are expected to reveal a lively debate on the possibility of further rate hikes because the US Fed futures currently price 12% for pause and 88% chance for a 25bps rate hike on July 26th's FOMC decision.

OIL

Crude oil futures held sharp gains from the previous session, amid concerns about a global economic downturn, particularly in China. While oil futures slightly eased the early gains following the release of weak service sector data from the Eurozone and China. Moving ahead to the North American session, the oil traders should closely monitor the release of the latest FED meeting minutes and the API weekly inventory report, which is set to be released after the US session.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, EURUSD turned under pressure following the release of disappointing services PMI data from across Europe. As of this writing, the currency pair trades below 1.0880. Services PMI In the Euro Area decreased to 52 points in June from 55.10 points in May of 2023. On the other hand, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars inched towards recent peaks on Wednesday morning driven by oil prices recovery and the weaker US dollar.

GOLD

The safe-haven metal is struggling to firm to the upside despite the weak US dollar due to aggressive Fed rate hike bets. The overall momentum is expected to be remained under pressure for the medium term due to the expectations that major central banks including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 53.9 in June 2023 from 57.1 in the previous month. The sector showed signs of softening growth, with both the business activity and new orders expanding at notably slower rates than seen in May, according to the report. While the Caixin China General Composite PMI slipped to 52.5 in June 2023 from 55.6 in May, pointing to the lowest figure since January.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Factory orders: GMT – 14:00

US – FOMC minutes: GMT – 18:00

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: The currency pair needs to stay above 1.0900; otherwise. 1.0840/00 may be visible soon. On the upper side, 1.0970 is the key resistance zones to watch, if the pair breaks and close above this area then the next supply level to watch is around 1.1030/50.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0870 and 1.0840 Resistance- 1.0940 and 1.0970.

GOLD: On the daily time frame, the gold is currently supported at 1918, and the resistance is around $1930. On the upper side, the long-term buyers should wait for a daily close above the $1935.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1918 and 1914 Resistance- 1930 and 1935.

Quote of the day – If a trader is motivated by the money, then it is the wrong reason. A truly successful trader has got to be involved and into the trading, the money is the side issue… The principal motivation is not the trappings of success. It’s usually the by-product – simply stated, “the game’s the thing” - Bill Lipschutz.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-681

 

[syamfx2020]

The first half of 2023 was a strong period for stock markets around the globe and remarkable for Wall Street, defying expectations amid widespread layoffs, interest rate increases, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, the U.S. stock market, particularly the NASDAQ 100, has experienced a significant rally, with mega-cap tech stocks leading the way. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed its best first-half performance in 40 years, with a 31.73% surge year-to-date. The S&P 500 also rallied 15.9% for its best first half since 2019 while the Dow climbed 3.8%.

In this article, we take a look at the top five stock market winners in the first half of 2023 and find out why they’ve done so well. However, note that the best-performing stocks during the first half do not necessarily mean that they will do well in the next 6 months.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)​

Companies involved with artificial intelligence were the real winners for 2023. One of the most volatile stocks in this category today has a $1 Trillion Market cap, thanks to the AI boom. Nvidia is at the top of our list. 6 months ago in December, the stock traded at $150, today it trades at $425. Nvidia had a terrific year, driven by AI-fueled demand for its semiconductor chips. The stock spiked 190% in the first half and hit an all-time high in May.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)​

The social networking company Meta Platforms has been another investor favorite so far this year, returning 138% over the past six months. Meta is the company that owns Facebook and is the world's largest social network. Meta’s involvement in the thriving AI technology sector has further bolstered its prospects. Adding to the rally, Meta reported solid results for Q1 2023 as it beat both its revenue and earnings growth estimates. The stock experienced a significant increase in its stock price following a positive Q1 earnings report and outlook.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)​

The third one on our list we decided to focus on Tesla, as a stock that still stands out at the top among electric vehicle companies. The shares of the EV maker have impressively appreciated by 112% in the first half of this year. The strong rally lifted after the company signed landmark deals for Ford and GM to use its charging network. The stock also started the new quarter on a bullish note. On Monday, the stock gained almost 6% after the company reported record quarterly sales. For the second quarter ending June 30, 2023, Tesla delivered 466,140 vehicles, up 83% year-over-year and 10% higher quarter-over-quarter.

Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE: RCL)​

Cruise line operators were in the limelight in the last couple of months. Shares of the Cruise line giants Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Group extend the rebound in recent weeks as the demand for Cruise companies continues to recover. Carnival stock made some big strides in the first half of 2022, with its shares rising 130% since the turn of the year. Carnival stock jumps 20% last week after the company posted record revenues and bookings for the last quarter. The company saw a continued acceleration of demand, with total bookings made during the quarter reaching a new all-time high for all future sailings.



While Royal Caribbean is the 3rd best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, up over 105%. Cruise line stocks should continue to be volatile in the coming months as the market expects the companies to continue to see unprecedented demand.

Read more with charts - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/best-performing-stocks-through-the-first-half-of-2023

 

[syamfx2020]

EURUSD recovered from the early losses. The currency pair hit a fresh weekly low of 1.0833 during the early session today. Although the pair rebounded back to above 1.0870 after the data published by Destatis revealed upbeat German Factory Orders data. German factory orders rebounded in May by 6.4% MoM outpacing the 1% expected a sign that the manufacturing sector recovery is finding its momentum. Meantime, the latest Eurozone retail sales data showed that retail sales in the Euro Area remained unchanged for the second consecutive month in May. While the overall momentum remains mixed as the pair remains undecided as to which way its next directional break is. In the long term, watch for weekly closing above 1.0940 or below the 1.0750 area, which will give a larger confirmation of direction in the long term.

EQUITIES

US stock futures remain under pressure. The latest bearish sentiment was driven by the hawkish minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting. The markets are now pricing in an 89 per cent chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting later this month. The next two days are expected to be an incredibly busy trading session as the US will release the latest ADP employment and ISM services PMI data on Thursday followed by US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday.

OIL

Crude oil futures extend the weekly gains after the release of the API inventory report. The API data showed the U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.382 million barrels during the week. Moving ahead, the key data for the oil prices today will once again be the weekly EIA crude inventory report, movement of the US dollar and ISM services PMI data.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, Euro and the Canadian dollar were the main losers among major currencies in early European trade on Thursday. Meantime, the New Zealand dollar is holding its impressive gains against the US dollar. the recent Kiwi’s strength is primarily due to a recovery in oil prices. On the other hand, the US dollar index trades flat and the key event to watch for DXY today is the ADP employment report which might have a very high impact on the dollar.

GOLD

The safe-haven metal jumps back above $1920 ahead of US ADP employment data, which is set to be released at 12:15 GMT. During the previous session, the metal dropped to below $1915 after the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes revealed that most officials would support more rate increases this year. Technically, the medium-term trend remains mixed but If the US dollar started to retreat in the coming days, we could see a rebound in the precious metals.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that the decision to hold interest rates steady in June was not unanimous and that most officials expected further rate hikes would be necessary, as the dot plot had shown. The Fed predicts a mild recession, anticipating slower economic growth from the second half of 2023 into early 2024, followed by subdued growth in 2024 and 2025.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – ADP employment report: GMT – 12:15

US – ISM services PMI: GMT – 14:00

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: For today, the first key support level is located at 1.0830. In case it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located near 1.0810. On the upper side, If the pair regains strong upside momentum and press back above 1.0900 then the key resistance area to watch is 1.0940.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0830 and 1.0810 Resistance- 1.0900 and 1.0940.

GOLD: For today, the key support remains for the metal near 1910, a break below this level will confirm a possible move to 1900. On the upper side, the key resistance is located around 1925, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 1930 and 1934 minimum.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1910 and 1900 Resistance- 1926 and 1934.

Quote of the day – “Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you've invested.” - Peter Lynch.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-682

 

[syamfx2020]

Global markets are volatile again after the release of robust US economic data. This can stay for a while. Volatility means indecision and the bulls/bears are fighting for the next direction. Today the focus will also turn to the US employment report (NFP), which should prompt even more volatility. Employment is a very important indicator to the Federal Reserve Bank. The range of US NFP estimates for today’s number is broad, and it is expected to be anywhere between 180K to 250 marks.

If NFP comes below 180k then the Federal Reserve may start being less aggressive with hikes, a fact that could potentially set markets for continued relief. On the other hand, the Fed would be inclined to continue its series of aggressive rate hikes if the numbers support a strong labor market. However, most of the market participants still expect that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% this month even though the jobs data comes lower than expected.

EQUITIES

Global stocks and US futures extend the slide. The strong bearish momentum is fueled by the enduring pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike. On Thursday, Wall Street ended lower despite the release of strong US economic data as strong US jobs data fueled fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy further in July.

OIL

Crude oil prices ended a choppy session in positive territory after the EIA data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories declined more than expected last week. The EIA data showed the US crude oil inventories dropped by 1.508 million barrels in the week ending June 30th. The US labour market will set the tone for the price action in crude oil on Friday, as it will offer fresh cues on the Fed’s next policy move and any speakers from the Fed will also be closely watched.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, EURUSD reversed from the early gains after the release of disappointing German industrial data. The pair again failed to break above 1.0900 and now there is a real battle going on at the current level and we could see a strong move in either direction. While the dollar index trades higher, and the index remained in demand throughout this week as investors positioned ahead of the US jobs data. The upside momentum was also largely supported by the latest stronger-than-expected US economic data.

GOLD

The precious metal has been under intense selling pressure on Thursday after the release of hotter-than-expected US ADP data. As of this writing, gold price trades below $1915. The strong ADP data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could shoot even higher interest rates. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates since higher rates dent gold's appeal as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the US Institute for Supply Management released a report on Thursday showing services PMI climbed to 53.9 in June from 50.3 in May, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the sector. The bigger-than-expected rebound by the headline index was partly due to a notable acceleration in the pace of growth in business activity. Meanwhile, Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data showed that the number of job openings (Job Openings) in the US fell by 496,000 to 9.82 million in May, slightly below market expectations of 9.93 million.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Non-Farm payrolls: GMT – 12:30

Canada – Employment report: GMT – 12:30

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: For today, the key support level is located at 1.0820. If it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level, which is near 1.0780. On the upper side, If the pair regains upside momentum and press back above 1.0940 then the key resistance area to watch is 1.0970 and 1.1010.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0820 and 1.0780 Resistance- 1.0940 and 1.0970.

GOLD: Technically the current price action signals suggest that the medium-term bearish trend remains intact. On the downside, the decline is more extensive, and it will be hard to rule out a run towards $1895/90 if the bearish momentum continues. On the flip side, the first resistance is located around $1926, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 1850 and 1855.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1900 and 1892 Resistance- 1920 and 1935.

Quote of the day – “The core problem, however, is the need to fit markets into a style of trading rather than finding ways to trade that fit with market behaviour.” – Brett Steenbarger.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-683

 

[syamfx2020]

Wall Street ends lower and the king dollar sold off heavily on Friday after the recent jobs report shows a healthy but smaller-than-expected increase. The ADP private payrolls report showed strong numbers, while Nonfarm Payroll data from BLS underperformed expectations. However, both reports suggest that the U.S. labor market remains tight, which could lead Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike campaign.

However, all eyes are on this week's US June CPI report, as it will shape the Fed’s next move, particularly after the latest job market report. US June CPI is expected to cool off to around 3.1% from May’s figure of 4% which would be the lowest rate since March 2021. The inflation data might influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to act more aggressively.

On the earnings front, the companies scheduled to release their last quarter financial results this week will be Delta Airlines, Pepsi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi.

GOLD

Precious metals experienced some relief and gold price ended ended slightly higher on Friday as the Nonfarm payrolls in June were lower than expected. While the gold price started the new week slightly lower as investors are trading cautiously ahead of Wednesday's release of the consumer price index reading for June. Moving ahead, the metal could continue to find support again below $1910 this week but the long-term direction of the gold price will depend on the US CPI data.



The metal retreats back to below $1920 after it failed to break above $1935. Although if the metal manages to settle above $1935/38, it will move towards the next resistance at $1948/50. On the downside, the immediate support prevails at $1918, a further breakout of $1918 can lead the pair towards $1910/00 levels.

DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. Dollar was sold off heavily on Friday following the release of US jobs report, the mixed economic data raised bets the Fed will deliver smaller rate increases. This week USD traders await the latest US CPI data, looking for clues on future rate hikes by the central bank. If inflation data is lower than expected, the US dollar may weaken further. The USD trader's focus will also turn to the focus will be on Fed speakers lined up through the week and the Wednesday release of the Beige Book, which should prompt even more volatility.



The greenback daily chart is still biased to the downside and still possible we will get further downside as the chart has downward pressure. If the bearish momentum continues bears will probably try to achieve the previously tested support at 101.90 and then 101.60. On the upper side, the immediate resistance is located for the index around 102.70, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 103.00/10.

EURUSD

EURUSD opened modestly higher this week. On Friday, the euro regained strong upside momentum against a broadly weaker dollar. The currency pair could see a resumption of the upside move this week if the pair holds the current bullish momentum. This week, again the movement of the US dollar and the latest economic sentiment data from Germany and the Eurozone is likely to significantly affect the currency pair.



This week as long as the currency trades above 1.0900 levels, the medium-term uptrend will remain in place. The long lower wicks on the candles last week suggest that there was little demand at the lower prices, which keeps buyers hopeful of further upside. Buyers could look for a rise of 1.10, which would be a bullish signal, opening the door to a 1.1050 round number and 1.1075..

DOW JONES

Dow Jones and other US key indices ended lower on Friday after a volatile session following the release of the US employment report. The data showed hiring slowed in the U.S. economy last month while the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged lower to 3.6%. This week, the US CPI and PPI data will likely have a significant effect on Dow and other precious metals indices. On the other hand, investors await the next round of earnings results. Q2 Earnings season kicks off this week and all eyes are on the largest U.S. financial institutions.



For Dow this week, the first key support level is located at 33,450. In case the pair breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located at nearly 33,200. On the flip side, a move above 34,000 again will push the pair into a new trading zone, which may offer further buying opportunities until the 34,300 and 34,550 zones.

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