Weekly review: Gold, USD, EURUSD and Dow Jones


Global stocks, precious metals and commodities ended on a bullish note last week after the latest inflation numbers stoked hopes the next rate hike from the Fed in July could be the last one. US Inflation Rate slowed to 3.1% in June of 2023, which would mark a 12th consecutive month of falls & the lowest reading since March of 2021. However, the market is broadly pricing in a quarter-point interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting later this month.

This week's economic calendar is packed with important events which include the inflation data from UK and Eurozone and the retail sales data from US, UK and Canada. On the other hand, investors should shift their emphasis from inflation risks to the Q2 earnings season. The second quarter earnings season is expected to be strong with sectors such as banking, entertainment and airlines likely to report the latest financial results.

On the earnings front, the companies scheduled to release their last quarter financial results this week will be Tesla, IBM, Netflix, American Airlines, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.


Gold price had its best week since April supported by dollar weakness and boosted by expectations for the end of U.S. interest rate hikes. The precious metal rises above $1960 last week. While the metal started the new week slightly lower and retreated back to $1950. The recent bounce from last Monday’s low stalled at the daily resistance around $1965 per ounce and showed multiple failures in the lower time frames. For this week, the main drivers for the gold remain the movement of the US dollar, FED policymaker's comments and fresh retail sales data from the US.

Technically the overall momentum remained bullish throughout last week. On the bullish side, this week the resistance stays above $1973, and a break above this exposes the index to the $1982/85 level. On the flip side, rejection and pullback from the $1972/73 resistance area allow for a dip towards $1950, with $1940/35 forming additional downside targets.


The U.S. Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, suffered its worst weekly loss since November of last year, falling below 100.00, to the lowest since April 2022. While on Friday the index slightly regained momentum after the latest data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level in nearly two years in July. The consumer sentiment came in at 72.6 this month, the highest reading since September 2021, compared to 64.4 in June. Some of the key data points expected to dictate this week's dollar price movements include the US retail sales due on Tuesday and the US housing data on Wednesday.

Technically the current price action signals suggest that the medium-term bearish trend remains intact. On the downside, the decline is more extensive, and it will be hard to rule out a run towards 99.60 then 99.30 if the bearish momentum continues. On the flip side, the immediate resistance stays above 100.20, and a break above this exposes the Index towards the 100.40/60 levels.


Euro recorded strong gains in relation to the US dollar last week, the recent pick-up has been driven primarily by the recent sell-off of the US dollar and also supported by hawkish ECB minutes. The minutes of the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting showed that the Governing Council may consider raising interest rates after July if necessary. For the euro there is no major economic data scheduled this week except Eurozone inflation data, so this week again the trend of the euro would largely depend on the trend of the dollar index.

Technically, the medium-term trend is very supportive, and the currency pair has room to climb If the upside momentum continues. This week, key resistance is located for the pair around 1.1270, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 1.1310/30. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 1.1200 and then 1.1180 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 1.1140/30 zones.


Dow Jones and other US indices ended last week firmly in positive territory following the US inflation report offered hope that the Federal Reserve will ease the pace of its interest-rate increases. The indices received additional buying pressure after the big US investment banks JP Morgan and Wells Fargo reported better-than-expected earnings results. For this week, Dow trader's focus will turn to the US retail sales data on Tuesday as well as the earnings results from banking giants Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

This week, the resistance is located around 34,650, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 34,950/35,000. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 34,350 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 34,200 and 34,050 regions.

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