Mp | Intermediate Term Points E/U

[mp6140]

as of today, daily chart showing upside to the 3155 area as a safe play, with a reverse to the 2997 bottom, following its present trend. NATURALLY once the highest point is reached, we take profit and WAIT for the next move instead of blindly heading in, having to be the first one at the new movie ---- often the banks and mm's take the price a bit above the TP point (18 to 23%) to catch those who left buy orders, and then WHAM --- down they go with all the money belonging to those who simply didnt wait for a decent signal.

kindly note that these figures are DAILY chart plays and naturally will take time to complete with obvious intraday reverses and climbs.

If i have time, i will try to post what are becoming very comfortable OVERNITE trades (midnite est to 10 am, est) which you simply set and forget and will encompass the current direction and at least one reversal during the european session --- we have found you just set em and forgetem and wake up happy.

PLEASE always keep in back of mind that EU is presently working in a major DOWNTREND, so be careful on longs that approach the tops of your h4 chart.

For this evening, while we sleep

15 MINUTE ---- 3592 safe and 3590 possible, with prob reversal to upside of 3618 safe and 3621 possible
30 MINUTE ---- 3580 appears safe
60 MINUTE ---- 3585 should reverse back up and if enough time, come down to 3581 with a possible 3576

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[mp6140]

MP -- longer range trends and thoughts

DAILY THOUGHTS

things got a bit whippy on that last prediction but the downside is still working which will be followed by an ultimate 4343 as the daily finishes up its present downtrend and heads for the land of milk and honey.

for the downside on the daily, looking at 2827 with a possible 2746 --- if 46 broken downside, after a move up, could see 2646

First upside move should go to 3437 - 3553, followed by retrace and then, in time, a move to the 4343 area



the present weekly trend is to the upside but must finish its downside move also, which is presently showing 2625

when fully bottomed, should begin its upside move towards the 4200's area with a stop in the 3435 area, retrace 3296 and start up again towards its 4727

 

[mp6140]

MP -- some additions

based on the weekly chart, which gives a much nicer idea of whats happening

if 2862 is broken to the downside, the weekly shows THREE support areas converging on 2623(GASP !) and the indicators seem to agree

2862 is a more natural springboard for a run up but in this world, stranger things happen constantly.

at 2862 I shall watch for where a retrace will take it and if its only 23%, prepare for more shorting.

do understand this thing is wanting to go up after it finishes having fun, but im not smart enough to figure the day and time this happens

enjoy and trade well

mp

ps, im way better on things like the 30 and the 60 especially overnite, which means the european session into the open of the USA session, which produces happy pips while i sleep

 

[mp6140]

MP -- H4 estimate

Daily shows probable 3025 for either early morning or during wed.

for tonite, 2979 for the downside of the 15 min chart, 2979 downside for the 30 min chart and 2961 downside for the 60 min chart

one of two scenarios exist --- either we just head on down, bottom on the 60 and turn up or we hit 15 min bottom, bounce back up to 2999 or possibly 3005 slightly above and then continuation down to bottom

emkpu amd trade we;;

mp

 

[mp6140]

MP -- H4 present analysis

3654 to the topside with 3498 bottomside showing

15 min chart shows 3578 - 3569 probable bottom before reversal to 3643 area during euro session ( ? )

30 min charts shows extension of bottom to 3576, with a possible 3570

60 min chart shows 3569 with a possible downside continuation to 3657 to take it under the pivot point

H4 chart shows 3526 as a point of 4 converging support areas, and while i said the daily only shows 3453, this could be one of those strange forex situations, although it appears to me that we must hit 3665 on the H4 before we drop to that point. Right now, stick with the above overnites for safety.

DAILY shows probable pullback to the 3453 area and up the road, on the weekly we see 4239 VERY VERY strong

presently looking like a small retrace to catch breath and then the continuation to the upside (small is a relative term in forex, often lasting a few days)

OH YEAH --- old time traders remember the expression "it dropped to kiss the - - - - - goodbye" which in this case is the pivot point at 3864, which i truly feel will be hit, dropped slightly below and KISSED GOODBYE as the price wends its way up the mountainside --- strong resist exists at the 3752-67 area and while I tend to scalp my way across this vast universe, its a place ill take notice, whether im on the 30 second or 30 min chart. (BUT, not something to overly worry about, at least this moment methinks)

EDIT -- 1/24 -- 7AM oh yeah, a large and wonderful kiss indeed, just that for today at least, the kiss sent the lover out the back door and DOWN the hill, SO WERE GOING FOR THE LARGER SUPPORT AREA before wending our way back up, assuming UP is a direction this thing wants .

NOW, there IS one fly in the ointment, and that is there is a bottom down there in the 2900 range THAT HAS NOT BEEN HIT, and would be highly unlikely if not, presenting two scenerios ---- we go up to create a double top, or any other comic book character and then we finally head back down to the land that we "should" have hit before this runup.

now lets see what reality has to say about all this theory stuff

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[mp6140]

MP -- exclnt tally from last nite

having hit every point last nite in the overnite prediction, its a little early to predict tonites (meaning what happens sunday) Hopefully some of you could get into those 100 pip moves on the 15, 30 and 60 min charts, and the reversals on the 15 --- made for a GREAT present upon waking this AM.

long term trades cannot (well - - - SHOULD not be made until candle closure, which is why my overnites are made AFTER midnite est)

if something is showing clearly for Sunday, ill post it but Fridays tend to be a bit difficult although the standard "if UP on friday, then Down on Sunday because of profit taking and a desire to drop price so as to have a lower entry for a continued UPside run.

last nite I stated to watch the 3730 area for topside run for the week as the MACD was just about to break from under to over its zero, which it sure did, BUT 3823 which is the 20 bols lies above the "safe" 3730 and giving signs of wanting to go there.

But first we deal with the 3730 and my feeling is we then see a downside, profit taking, which could easily take us to 3406, but only next week will provide trends and directions for that supposition.

Always remember, even though a laengthy process, there is a 2902 and a 2779 down there THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN HIT, but were NOT, which simply means, given the present downtrend, they WILL be hit, just WHEN being the big bad question.

last nites numbers from the daily and weekly still apply, so lets live with them until the market shows anything different next week (after all, what the DJI does affects what WE do in direct proportion and simply becomes another barometer to use.

enjoy and trade well,

mp

Experience and Knowledge are the two handmaidens of trading, and I buy them roses each morning

 

[mp6140]

Having hit every point last nite in the overnite prediction, its a little early to predict tonites (meaning what happens sunday) Hopefully some of you could get into those 100 pip moves on the 15, 30 and 60 min charts, and the reversals on the 15 --- made for a GREAT present upon waking this AM.

long term trades cannot (well - - - SHOULD not be made until candle closure, which is why my overnites are made AFTER midnite est)

if something is showing clearly for Sunday, ill post it but Fridays tend to be a bit difficult although the standard "if UP on friday, then Down on Sunday because of profit taking and a desire to drop price so as to have a lower entry for a continued UPside run.

last nite I stated to watch the 3730 area for topside run for the week as the MACD was just about to break from under to over its zero, which it sure did, BUT 3823 which is the 20 bols lies above the "safe" 3730 and giving signs of wanting to go there.

But first we deal with the 3730 and my feeling is we then see a downside, profit taking, which could easily take us to 3406, but only next week will provide trends and directions for that supposition.

Always remember, even though a laengthy process, there is a 2902 and a 2779 down there THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN HIT, but were NOT, which simply means, given the present downtrend, they WILL be hit, just WHEN being the big bad question.

last nites numbers from the daily and weekly still apply, so lets live with them until the market shows anything different next week (after all, what the DJI does affects what WE do in direct proportion and simply becomes another barometer to use.

enjoy and trade well,

mp

Experience and Knowledge are the two handmaidens of trading, and I buy them roses each and every morning with genuine humility and gratitude !

 

[mp6140]

having hit every point last nite in the overnite prediction, its a little early to predict tonites (meaning what happens sunday) Hopefully some of you could get into those 100 pip moves on the 15, 30 and 60 min charts, and the reversals on the 15 --- made for a GREAT present upon waking this AM.

long term trades cannot (well - - - SHOULD not be made until candle closure, which is why my overnites are made AFTER midnite est)

if something is showing clearly for Sunday, ill post it but Fridays tend to be a bit difficult although the standard "if UP on friday, then Down on Sunday because of profit taking and a desire to drop price so as to have a lower entry for a continued UPside run.

last nite I stated to watch the 3730 area for topside run for the week as the MACD was just about to break from under to over its zero, which it sure did, BUT 3823 which is the 20 bols lies above the "safe" 3730 and giving signs of wanting to go there.

But first we deal with the 3730 and my feeling is we then see a downside, profit taking, which could easily take us to 3406, but only next week will provide trends and directions for that supposition.

Always remember, even though a laengthy process, there is a 2902 and a 2779 down there THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN HIT, but were NOT, which simply means, given the present downtrend, they WILL be hit, just WHEN being the big bad question.

last nites numbers from the daily and weekly still apply, so lets live with them until the market shows anything different next week (after all, what the DJI does affects what WE do in direct proportion and simply becomes another barometer to use.

enjoy and trade well,

mp

Experience and Knowledge are the two handmaidens of trading, and I buy them roses each morning with genuine humility and gratitude

 

[mp6140]

MP -- just a simple observation

Brokers have a multitude of methods of creating massive damage to ones account, and while I could write a book (ooops, I wrote a chapter on it anyway) they can get sneakier every day.

What I considered "honest" brokers are now GIVING US DELAYED CHARTS --- granted, they are only delayed by a second or so, but when scalping it is the difference between a successful trade or one that was entered TOO LATE.

So one of the things I ask you to do is examine YOUR broker and see if what shows up on the tick chart or your order ticket AGREES with what the chart says ---- I will bet dollars to a cops doughnuts that most will be OFF and therefore throw your trade off.

We of course can compensate for this by watching support and resistance points and reading WHAT price the brokers offer out at, rejecting those trades that do not give us enough spread to make a profit, BUT its simply another version of home field advantage (lol --- at the LEAST) or downright CROOKED behavior, and I shall take the latter choice !

WATCH FOR IT AND IF YOU SEE IT, YELL, SCREAM, CARRY ON BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, WORK AROUND WHT THEYRE DOING !

enjoy and trade well my friends

mp


Experience and Knowledge are the two handmaidens of trading, and I buy them roses each morning with genuine humility and gratitude

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- Eu Thinking

probable upside to 4480 with retrace during europe and morning USA sessions.

retrace looking good to 4448 with the pivot at 4419 being strong support on H4 charts and normally hit during these actions

if the retrace is a solid one, 4347 is a strong possible before it ends (2 days run), but I am setting trades at 4419 presently

overall upside at end of retrace shows 4503 as resistance which should create another retrace and then on to 4552 area which is then getting very toppy.

since the banks have been in a all out rush to get this price up there, wondering how soon trend may change, considering how close to top of the H4 we are getting.

Just a thought, but while Im definitely not a fundimentals follower, europes condition vs ours doesnt seem to bear out the ever growing price of the euro --- just some thinking on my part






enjoy and trade well

mp