NEW!!! Japan Yen Forex Pro Weekly, September 06-10, 2010

[Sive Morten]

JPY/USD Daily Update, Tue 07, September

Good Morning,

Before proceeding with update, please, reread daily and 4-hour analysis above.

As you remember, 120.50 area is a strong resistance just above the market, that includes daily 161.8% expansion target, 4-hour 1.27 Butterfly target and 4-hour 100% expansion target. So,
As i've said, if 4- hour trend will turn bullish and market will hold above pivot points - we can possess ourselves on the long side of JPY/USD with target 120.50.

That has happened - look at 4-hour chart. Market also has reached 61.8% expansion target and can show some retracement to the downside, that can be used for Long entering.

Personally, I would like to see not deep retracement -118.92 Confluence support area (look at hourly chart). So, that hourly trend will remain bullish.
For now it's impossible to say, how deep this retracement can be. The main condition - market has to stay above weekly pivot. If it move below it then something is wrong.

 

[Sive Morten]

USD/JPY Daily Update, Wed 08, September

Good morning,

Today I have some problems with CQG software, so I've prepared USD/JPY MT4 chart.

So, although market continuing it's down move, it has not reached yet 83 area, that is a target of a Butterfly Buy pattern and AB-CD Buy pattern. I think that it should reach it. But one thing worries me a bit - two recent bars in opposite direction look like Wash and Rinse of a previous lows. This kind of price actio can lead to a deeper retracement up.

So, if you have a short position already -may be to tight stops will not be bad Idea.

 

[Sive Morten]

JPY/USD Daily Update, Fri 10, September 2010

Hello everybody,

From the first view on the market, it seems that up move is over, but is it really so?
Look at the first picture - this is daily chart of the Yen. As you remember, we've estimated a solid targets and resistance just above the market around 120.50 area. So, the price action in the channel looks like 2 step forward - 1 step back. It means that market makes deep retracements (around 0.618) during the pulls back in the channel. Also take a note how weekly pivot (blue line) and weekly pivot resistance 1 (red line) hold the market.
This helps us understand that the butterfly, that we've marked on 4-hour chart probably should work well, but possibly after pull back to 118.50 area -this is a 0.618 support from the last swing high, and this seems logical, based on previous price action.
Thanks to this kind of movement is also simple to estimate when it will fail. It will happen if market will move below the previous low. In our case this is 117.47 area.