Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)


Windsor Brokers Representative
The Euro failed to clear strong 1.2300 barrier, also 55 day EMA that capped the past two day price action, after today’s rally through 1.2300/15 failed at 1.2322 and subsequent pullback brought the price back under 1.2300 handle. Fresh slide below 20 day EMA, dips to 1.2260, Fib 38.2% of 1.2161/1.2322 ascend so far. As hourly indicators turned lower and 1.2300 proved to be tough barrier, more focus is seen towards the downside. Next supports lie at 1.2241 and 1.2223, 50% / 61.8% retracement, with more significant 1.2215/00 zone, yesterday’s low / bull trendline / round figure support, loss of which would signal an end of short-term corrective phase. On the upside, regain of 1.2335 is required to bring bulls fully in play. Larger picture’s bearish outlook, however, remains intact, with downside targets at 1.2150 and extension towards 1.2000 being in a short-term outlook.

Res: 1.2300, 1.2315, 1.2322, 1.2335
Sup: 1.2260, 1.2241, 1.2223, 1.2215

The near-term outlook remains positive, as the pair approached initial 1.5700 barrier, with gains being interrupted by dip to 1.5635, where 55 day EMA contained slide. Hourly studies remain supportive, as the price broke and close above 1.5776/1.5721 bear-trendline, however, toppish 4h conditions, with indicators in a sideways mode, see risk of possible further easing, as the pair holds below strong 1.5700/50 resistance zone, where 200 day MA stands. Loss of initial support at 1.5600 would increase downside risk towards 1.5580 and 1.5550.

Res: 1.5677, 1.5693, 1.5700, 1.5721
Sup: 1.5645, 1.5635, 1.5600, 1.5580

The pair remains at the back foot, as brief bounce through 79.00 barrier, also 200 day MA, failed at 79.15, with subsequent weakness, posting fresh 2 ½ month low at 78.45. This brings short-term bears back in play, as studies on lower timeframes hold in the negative territory. However, overextended hourly conditions, see potential for corrective action, with initial barrier at 78.67, previous low / 20 day EMA being tested so far, ahead of more significant 79.00 and 79.15 levels that are expected to cap for now.

Res: 78.67, 78.80, 79.00, 79.15
Sup: 78.45, 78.09, 78.00, 77.65

Near-term basing attempt is seen at 0.9750, where 55 day EMA keeps the downside protected for now, despite today’s spike lower. Quick recovery and regain of levels close to 0.9800 handle, sees potential for further extension higher, however, clear break above here and regain of minimum 0.9828, yesterday’s high / Fib 61.8% of 0.9871/0.9745, is required, as near-term structure still holds negative elements. On the downside, the main risk is seen on a break below 0.9750 platform that would signal a resumption of short-term corrective pullback from 0.9871 and expose 0.9700 zone next.

Res: 0.9792, 0.9808, 0.9828, 0.9851,
Sup: 0.9766, 0.9745, 0.9714, 0.9700