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Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Outlook for 11-22-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Nov 21, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    There's no forex news due out Monday, so I'll preview this week's news events in one signal later Monday evening. My plan with my signals moving forward is to preview all the major news events in one signal early in the week, then post additional updates as necessary throughout the week to cover any insights I may have to the trends and price action on the forex pairs or markets I'm focused on.

    Right now, the biggest thing I'm looking at in forex is to short EUR/USD on this rally. My plan from last week as you might remember, was to short EUR/USD between 1.3760 to 1.3900 and that plan remains relatively unchanged with us now at 1.3761 just shy of the 38% retracement of the November selloff. Because I'm looking for at LEAST a selloff to 1.3300, I'm going to throw a SL of 1.4000 on this trade, with an initial TP of 1.3370 and potential further TP's of 1.2930, and 1.2480. I do feel EUR/USD has some potential for an even bigger selloff to new lows below 1.1891, but if that's the case, I'd rather grab an earlier piece of it, then look to get in another trade short later if the odds improve.

    In the futures and equity markets, the S&P 500 is starting to look overbought and due for some sort of turn lower. I don't have a specific plan there just yet, but I'm watching it closely and doing a bit more research and should have a medium term trade plan put together soon. I'm just giving a heads up since I haven't covered the stock market in my signals for a couple months.

    To Our Success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Nov 21, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2010
  2. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    Looks like it's too late to go short at 1.3760 as it's at 1.3688 and looks set to go down further.
    Maybe it might trend upwards again for me to short it at a higher level : )

    Looking at market chart, what happened on/around 30/Mar/2010 when EUR/USD shot up like a cat on fire from 1.3458 to 1.4067??

    Thanks for your review....must admit it is much easier to read than to listen (no offense intended;yah!)
     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Initial TP of 1.3370 hit for about 390 pips profit in less than 48 hours. EUR/USD may bottom form for a bit now and stage a moderate rally off this support area... if so, we should see another chance to short into that rally in the 1.3500 to 1.3620 range.
     
  4. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    In other words, I have missed the boat; yah! : (

    Ok, thank you very much for the info....hmmmm, I think I'll go Long at the present level 1.4002 and set TP at 1.3600
     
  5. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    error!.....I meant go in Long at 1.3402 level and set TP at 1.3600
     
  6. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I don't really agree with that strategy as we're clearly in a pronounced downtrend. If you view the selloff from 1.4300 as a mere retracement of the uptrend, then buying on dips would make sense, but my strong view is that we've got lower to go and we should see a break below 1.3000. The odds of a bounce right now are probably around 50% or a bit less, and even then, 1.3620 is the maximum bounce I'd expect given the pattern seen thusfar. 1.3500-20 could be all you get. The key on downtrends is to sell into rallies... buying dips in a downtrend will hurt you more often than it pays off. The beauty of waiting for a rally to develop further and shorting into it, is if the rally doesn't fully materialize, you don't lose any money and you can just wait for the next potential bounce. If you're buying potential lows, you're trying to catch the falling knife so to speak and you need a bounce with good timing on the entry and exit to make money, and it's very tough to pull that off often enough to try that consistently.
     
  7. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    Oh, oh!..you are absolutely 100% correct as the pair is acting like geese right now heading South at 1.3383 level....But I only have a very small position on that and my free margin will ride out the losses until it head North again.

    Yes, I see your rational and logic in waiting for a clear rally to develop further.

    Thanks for the (free) tuition;yah! : ).... You have simply been great and fantastic!
     
  8. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hi guys,

    I just updated what we do at Profit Mongers where Sir Pips primarily host his forex signals. There is so much I plan to add in the future but even now it's pretty rich in content. One cool thing is we focus now both on Forex and Fx Futures. That's quite a big change because not everyone can make money on spike trading on Forex but it seems like Fx Futures and other markets are still good to go.

    So if you ever get interested in Fx Futures, check this out.
    Live Forex Room - News Trading - Forex Trading - Fx Futures Trading

    I have not been on FPA forum for a while so hello to everyone.

    Thanks,
    Crazy Cat
     

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