Sir Pipsalot's Thursday Market Update 04-01-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

The EUR/USD did start it's 2nd leg up fairly quickly and momentum trading EUR/USD today on the 15m and 1hr chart off the 10ema as I advised worked beautifully. Once another trend establishes on the EUR/USD, give it a shot as we've got room above current 1.3550 resistance up to the 1.3800 region over the next week or two, and the downside could easily retrace back into the 1.3300's as well.

Longer term, we're in a retracement phase for now, but the larger downtrend will resume and another 2000+ pip selloff is the most likely scenario on the EUR/USD whenever this retracement phase ends.

On stocks, we had another sideways day that helped affirm my decision to close my short yesterday due to lack of movement. If we break down through 1159, that will likely wake things back up and confirm a reentry opportunity short.

In news Wednesday, US ADP Employment Change came in lower than expected, and we saw a solid 50 pips down on USD/JPY in the first 20 minutes. In news Thursday:

0428 UK Manufacturing PMI (56.8 expected) - This has been a bit of a hit-or-miss type trade where half of the time there are very exaggerated moves of 50-100 pips over 30-90 minutes, and the other half of the time moves are limited to 15-30 pips max with whipsaws on similar deviations. My suggestion is to stick with the trade and see if a trend develops off the number, but use a fairly tight SL in case this one duds.
If it comes out at 58.3 or higher, GBP/USD may rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at 55.3 or lower, GBP/USD may drop 40+ pips.

1000 US ISM Manufacturing (57.0 expected) - This one can be a bit of a slow mover as well which means there may be a good chance to get in at a good price after the news hits in that first minute or two. However, I'd only trade it now with a fairly large surprise.
If it comes out at 59 or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at 55 or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot