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Sir Pipsalot's Wednesday Market Update 03-03-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Mar 3, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    So far, the EUR/USD has yet to break out of its range just yet; however, if you took my advice yesterday and bought the EUR/USD below 1.3500 somewhere, you should be well in profit and poised to take advantage of a potential upwards breakout. In my view, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are likely to push higher through resistance over the next 2 days and target levels around 1.3800, 1.5200-1.5700, and 0.9200-0.9300 respectively. Keep in mind though, that doesn't mean we will head straight there without a pullback this session, so make sure to wait for a dip to get in if you want to buy. Also, there is a chance we whip around very soon and break out into more of a selloff mode instead, but I believe the odds of that are considerably lower. While I am still long term bearish on all of these pairs, the short to medium term looks quite bullish at the moment. If this move develops, it will be an excellent long term shorting opportunity once it is over.

    Stocks worked a bit higher today and continue to squeak out the final gains of this countertrend rally. Long term, it's a great short as I discussed yesterday, but I continue to refrain from prognosticating on any short term stock action until we resume the trend-based move lower in a more confirmed manner.

    In news Tuesday, we saw very little to trade off of with the CAD interest rate statement, and no big surprises on AU GDP. In news Wednesday:

    0428 UK Services PMI (55.0 expected) - This has been a pretty consistent trade when triggers are hit.
    If it comes out at 56 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40-50 pips in a few minutes.
    If it comes out at 54 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40-50 pips in a few minutes.
    If the deviation is much larger at 2.0 or larger, the number could set a trend extending gains/losses for 100+ pips as seen last month.

    0815 US ADP Employment Change (-20K expected) - It's been awhile since we've seen a surprise here, and with the focus this week on jobs, it could be a decent trade if that surprise comes through.
    If it comes out at 30K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at -70K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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