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Sir Pipsalot's Wednesday Market Update 07-28-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jul 27, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    On EUR/USD we saw a bit of a poke out above 1.3026, but it failed to hang on and ended up being nothing more than a stop run/failed breakout, so now on EUR/USD, we're in no clearer of a spot than we were yesterday. At this point a trade lower through 1.2950 should see at least 60 pips of follow through to around 1.2890, while another breakout higher is a bit more ambiguous, but should still show some good buy-on-dips opportunities after the breakout solidifies.

    USD/JPY worked out quite well with a solid 100 pip rally today, and we're likely to see some further followthrough to the upside today. I took 1/2 profits on yesterday's buy a bit shy of 88.00, and my final TP is around 89.00. If you're looking for a fresh entry, a dip to around 87.40 should be a decent spot to get in long if you're not in from yesterday or if you took all of your profits.

    Stocks have consolidated a bit but have not dipped low enough to hit my 1100 scalp long. I still think a buy around 1100 with a 10-15 point SL and 15-25 point TP is a decent trade. As for the medium term, we will likely top out this retracement over the next 2 weeks (hopefully around 1130), and then start a very ambitious selloff, so I'll probably look to position short again for a medium to long term trade late this week or early next week if the market is cooperating.

    In news Tuesday, we saw US Consumer Confidence come in pretty much as expected, while AU CPI figures came in quite low and have led to 80+ pips of downside so far for both a great spike and afterspike trade thusfar. In news Wednesday:

    0830 US Core Durable Goods m/m (0.4% expected) - Even when conflicting with the headline number, the Core (or Ex Transportation) figure should control the ultimate price action for a 30-40 pip trade on USD/JPY. Oftentimes the move from this number is a bit slower taking 20+ minutes to reach its potential.
    If it comes out at 1.4% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.6% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30-40 pips.

    1700 NZ Interest Rate Decision (0.25% hike to 3.00% unanimously expected) - Last month NZ hiked rates for the first time since 2007, and they're expected to follow that up with another hike this month. Assuming they do hike as expected, the price action could really go either way based on the strength of the statement and its implications for future rate hikes. The only easy trade here is if they keep rates steady or hike by more than expected.
    If they hike by 0.50% or more, NZD/USD should rally 50+ pips.
    If they keep rates unchanged, NZD/USD should drop 50+ pips.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. matjazz

    matjazz Recruit

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    Tnx for 1.0 triger on Core DG :) Still think move was so good couse hedline came -2.0 not core was -1.0 or maybe couse they where both in same direction. Where really sceptic before news... and change from 1.5 to 1. in last minute :)

    cheers
     

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