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[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDCAD - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3691–1.3978. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3265.

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9455 – 0.9600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9140.

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Gold Drops to Six-week Low Amid Stronger USD

Gold price dropped over 1.0% during today's session and is trading at levels not seen since early January as fresh US inflation figures bolstered bets that Fed will stick to its tightening path in order to bring down inflation. Also latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Fed's Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. Markets now expect the Fed funds rate to peak around 5.26% in July from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This puts pressure on precious metals, while the dollar strengthens across the board, with the most pronounced buying activity against the antipodean currencies. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, is moving towards 3.8%, a level not seen in more than a month. Traders now look ahead to US retail sales data on 1:30 pm GMT for more clues about the economy. Higher than expected reading would give Fed more reasons to continue on a hawkish path and put further pressure on bullion.

From a technical point of view, gold prices pull back sharply after buyers failed to break above major resistance at $1875. Price is currently approaching crucial support at $1830, which is marked with previous price reactions and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020. Should break lower occur, sell-off may accelerate towards psychological support at $1800.



Gold price dropped over 1.0% during today's session and is trading at levels not seen since early January as fresh US inflation figures bolstered bets that Fed will stick to its tightening path in order to bring down inflation. Also latest Fed commentary also showed that policymakers largely backed more rate increases, though Fed's Harker said the Fed was nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough. Markets now expect the Fed funds rate to peak around 5.26% in July from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This puts pressure on precious metals, while the dollar strengthens across the board, with the most pronounced buying activity against the antipodean currencies. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, is moving towards 3.8%, a level not seen in more than a month. Traders now look ahead to US retail sales data on 1:30 pm GMT for more clues about the economy. Higher than expected reading would give Fed more reasons to continue on a hawkish path and put further pressure on bullion.

From a technical point of view, gold prices pull back sharply after buyers failed to break above major resistance at $1875. Price is currently approaching crucial support at $1830, which is marked with previous price reactions and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020. Should break lower occur, sell-off may accelerate towards psychological support at $1800.

US dollar strengthens across the board during today's session.

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Chart of the Day - GBPJPY

UK inflation data for January was released today at 7:00 am GMT. Release showed a bigger slowdown in price growth than expected, with headline CPI gauge moving down from 10.5 to 10.1% YoY (exp. 10.3% YoY). Core gauge dropped from 6.3 to 5.8% YoY (exp. 6.2% YoY). Unsurprisingly, lower inflation reading was taken as dovish with investors increasing bearish BoE bets. This, in turn, triggered a pull back on GBP market.

Taking a look at GBPJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to climb above the resistance zone ranging below 38.2% retracement of the downward move launched in October 2022 recently but this breakout was short-lived. Pair pulled back below it this morning but has bounced off the daily lows and it looks like another attempt to break above 38.2% retracement may be on the cards. However, if bulls fail and bears regain control, a deeper correction may be on the cards. In such a scenario, 156.76 zones will be a key support to watch. However, 23.6% retracement in the 159.30 area may also provide some support given that it saw numerous price reactions over the past 2 months.​

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NATGAS

US natural gas prices have been trading sideways since the beginning of February. Bulls attempted to break above the upper limit of the trading range in the 2.60 area on Tuesday but failed and a pullback was triggered. Price found support in the 2.43 area and an over-4% rally has taken place in the past few hours. The EIA report on natural gas inventories is released to watch for NATGAS traders today. It is expected to show much smaller inventory draw (-97 bcf) than in the previous week (-217 bcf). Such low expectations can be reasoned with the fact that the United States enjoyed relatively high temperatures. Moreover, the report will not yet capture the impact of Freeport LNG terminal resuming operations. Nevertheless, some short-term volatility is to be expected around release time.

Taking a look at NATGAS chart we can see that the price is currently trading near the midpoint of the trading range. Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate in the next 8-14 days with temperatures in key heating regions dropping. This combined with resumption of exports at Freeport LNG terminal may provide some upward pressure on NATGAS prices going forward.​

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Tesla's 2023 Recall of Full Self-Driving Targets a 'Fundamental' Flaw

More than 360,000 vehicles will receive an over-the-air update after the US government said that Autopilot can be dangerous in some driving situations.

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NZDUSD ​

• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher at the beginning of a new week. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.1% higher, Kospi added 0.2% and Nifty 50 dropped 0.1%. Indices from China traded up to 2% higher.​
• DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today.​
• US index futures trade little change compared to Friday's cash closing prices.​
• US and Canadian traders are off for holidays today so liquidity conditions in the afternoon may be thinner.​
• US Secretary of State Blinken said that US has information suggesting that China is considering providing Russia with ammunition and lethal weapons for war in Ukraine.​
• Bloomberg reports that meeting between Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi over the weekend was rocky and far from encouraging.​
• People's Bank of China left 1- and 5-year prime lending rates unchanged at 3.65 and 4.30%, respectively. Decision was in-line with expectations.​
• According to Reuters report, People's Bank of China has reportedly asked domestic bank to slow issuance of loans this month.​
• North Korea fired two ballistic missiles today. UN Security Council will convene at 8:00 pm GMT today to discuss the situation.​
• Cryptocurrencies are trading mixed today with major coins experiencing rather small moves. Bitcoin drops 0.2%, Ethereum trades 0.3% higher and Dogecoin adds 0.4%.​
• Energy commodities trade mixed - oil gains 0.8-0.9% while natural gas pulls back around 2%.​
• Precious metals benefit from USD weakening at the beginning of a new week - gold and silver gain around 0.1% each while platinum adds almost 0.5%.​
• AUD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF, EUR and USD lag the most.​

NZDUSD bounced off the 0.62 support zone last week but failed to launch a major recovery move. There is a lot of uncertainty around NZD as RBNZ is set to announce rate decision this week (Wednesday, 1:00 am GMT) and some see a chance for rate hike cycle pause amid recent floods and cyclone hit.​

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[SOLID ECN LLC]

Platform

The popular trading platforms are narrowed to a few. We chose the newest and the most advanced platform that is available in the market, the MetaTrader 5!

Why MetaTrader 5?

Contrary to commune belief, MetaTrader 5 is not an upgrade of MT4. The MT4 platform was developed for trading in the Forex environment, whereas MT5 was coded for CFDs, Stocks, and futures access. To be short, MetaTrader 5 is for more experienced and advanced traders, but before we go with the MT5, at Solid ECN we ran a survey of the traders we know, and found out that most rookies and novice users are already with the MT5 platform, and for the first time the MT5 users have surpassed the MT4’s!

Major differences ​

• MT4 has 9-time frames, whereas MT5 offers 21-time frames. More time frames assist technical analyzers to have a better conception of the market movement.​
• MT 4 has 4 pending orders, whereas MT5 provides 6 types of pending orders.​
• MT 4 doesn’t have the market depth, but MT5 market depth is accessed within the chart.​
• MT5 has the Economic calendar on default.​
• MT4 has 4 types of pending orders, whereas MT5 holds 6 types.​
• MT4 allows hedging only, whereas MT5 allows both hedging and netting on request.​
• MT5 has 38 technical indicators, 44 analytical objects and unlimited charts​
• Partial order filling policies (fill/kill or cancel return) is another advantage of the MT5 for advanced traders.​
• The strategy tester of the MT5 platform is multi-threaded but MT4 is single-threaded.​

MetaQuote corporation has been sending announcements about stopping MT4 updates. Therefore, we believe it was in the best interest of all parties to go with the MT5 platform!​

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Economic Calendar: FOMC Minutes, German IFO​

• European indices set for flat opening of the cash session​
• FOMC minutes due at 7:00 pm GMT​
• German IFO data for February, Nvidia earnings​

European stock market indices are set to open little change compared to yesterday's cash session closing levels. This comes after a downbeat US session yesterday and in Asia today. Nevertheless, moods look to have calmed down a bit as we head into a new trading day. Risky assets, like commodities or cryptocurrencies, are pulling back while precious metals trade a touch higher. NZD is G10 top performer following RBNZ rate hike while AUD lags the most after disappointing Q4 data.

Economic calendar for the day ahead is light but includes some interesting releases. FOMC minutes release is a key macro event of the day. Powell has been rather hawkish at its latest meeting and investors are eager to see details of discussion. Apart from that, traders will also be offered German IFO indices for February and API print on US oil inventories. RBNZ Governor Orr is set to speak in the evening while Nvidia is scheduled to report earnings after Wall Street close​

• 9:00 am GMT - Germany, IFO index for February. Expected: 91.2. Previous: 90.2​
• 9:00 am GMT - Italy, CPI inflation for January. Expected: 10.1% YoY. Previous: 11.6% YoY​
• 7:00 pm GMT - FOMC minutes​
• 9:40 pm GMT - API report on US oil inventories. Expected: +1.1 mb. Previous: +10.51 mb​

Central bankers' speeches​

• 7:10 pm GMT - RBNZ Governor Orr​
• 10:30 pm GMT - Fed Williams​

Top Wall Street earnings reports​

• Baidu (BIDU.US) - before market open​
• TJX (TJX.US) - before market open​
• NVIDIA (NVDA.US) - after market close​
• Lucid Group (LCID.US) - after market close​
• Etsy (ETSY.US) - after market close​

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[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDCAD - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3691–1.3850. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3440.

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9455 – 0.9600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9213.

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[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDJPY
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• Wall Street indices had a volatile session yesterday but have ultimately finished trading with decent gains. S&P 500 gained 0.53%, Dow Jones added 0.33%, Nasdaq moved 0.72% higher and Russell 2000 jumped 0.71%​
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today. Nikkei gained 1.3%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.3% higher, Kospi dropped 0.6% and Nifty 50 traded flat. Indices from China traded 0.5-1.4% lower​
• DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session​
• Ueda, nominee to succeed Kuroda as BoJ chief, said that he sees inflation as peaking but warned that inflation trends do not improve, yield curve control will need to be maintained.​
• Speaking of tweaking BoJ yield curve control tool, Ueda said that targeting shorter-dated yields is one of the options on the table (BoJ currently targets 10-year yield)​
• Ueda did not make any specific comments on FX rates apart from saying that discussion on a specific JPY levels should be avoided​
• According to a Reuters poll, almost half of Japanese companies want the Bank of Japan to exit the negative rate policy. 47% of respondents think that new BoJ governor should change policy​
• China made a cease-fire proposal to Russia and Ukraine. However, it is said that proposal gives too much concessions to Russia and is unlikely to win backing in Kyiv​
• According to Der Spiegel report, Russia is holding talks with China over supply of Chinese combat drones as well as know-how needed to manufacture them in Russia​
• French finance minister Le Maire said that a new sanctions package on Russia is being prepared​
• Japanese CPI accelerated from 4.0 to 4.3% YoY in January (exp. 4.5% YoY). Core CPI accelerated from 4.0 to 4.2% YoY (exp. 4.2% YoY)​
• Cryptocurrencies trade mixed but scale of moves is really small. Bitcoin drops 0.1%, Ethereum gains 0.1% and Dogecoin adds 0.2%​
• Brent and WTI trade around 0.6% higher each while US natural gas prices drop 0.7%​
• Gold gains 0.2%, platinum adds 0.1% and silver trades flat. Palladium rallies over 1%​
• NZD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF and USD lag the most​

USDJPY experienced some volatility during Ueda confirmation hearings, but is ultimately trading little changed compared to pre-hearing levels. The pair is trading in a short-term 134-135 range.​

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