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Binance sued by CFTC - Crypto in retreat

US regulator CFTC is suing cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao due to issues related to violation of trading rules and derivatives. The news triggered a sharp sell-off of Binancecoin. Bitcoin also took a hit and dropped below the 28,000 mark. Nevertheless, at the moment Binancecoin is losing less than 2%.

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FRA40 pulls back as investors continue to follow the banking turmoil

FRA40 and other major European indices gave back most of early gains in the afternoon amid renewed concerns over the European banking sector. French prosecutors raided five banks including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and HSBC as part of an investigation into suspected cases of tax fraud and money laundering related to dividend payments. Meanwhile, protests against the pension reform continue and strikes entered a 10th day on Tuesday, with public transport disrupted and deliveries halted. From a technical point of view, the French index pulled back as buyers failed to break above 50 SMA (green line) around 7180 pts. If sellers manage to uphold control, downward move may deepen towards upward trendline or even crucial support zone in the region 6550 pts - 6650 pts, which is marked with lower limit of the 1:1 structure, 200 SMA (red line) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in March 2020.

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Ripple

Cryptocurrencies are rebounding today despite the still-uncertain news about the conflict between the CFTC and the Binance exchange. Among all the projects, Ripple (XRP) stands out again. Fintech company Ripple will hold a closed-door consultation with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 30. The market took the news of the warring parties meeting in court as a signal of a potential settlement. Bringing it about would be a victory for the entire decentralized finance sector in the States. It would undermine the SEC's decision-making role and reduce the fear of the prospect of restrictions proposed by Gary Gensler.​

• Ripple is cited by many analysts as one of the future foundations of a digital financial infrastructure based on blockchain technology. For example, recently Ripple's blockchain was able to process a $755 million transaction, in 4 seconds, for a fee of tenths of a dollar (0.01 XRP). By the crypto market, the company is seen as a major competitor to the interbank market, which charges high commissions for processing international transfers;​
• Iron Key Capital analysts point to Ripple as a winner in the multi-billion dollar global payments market. In addition to Ripple itself, cryptocurrencies Stellar and Algorand are also gaining today. Both of them, along with Ripple, have been pointed out as being integrated into the new ISO20022 international settlement standard. This system will replace the SWIFT standard in the coming years. Ripple's victory with the SEC is expected by Ark Invest fund manager CathieWood, among others;​
• The next few weeks may bring a 'rally under the event' in the price of Ripple tokens. A similar course of events is characteristic of the crypto market at the same time as it often ends in a sell-off (profit realization, so-called 'fact selling', as the decisive moment is very close. This was the case, among others, with the price of Cardano, which implemented smart contract technology in September 2021, and Ethereum Merge, in the summer of 2022.​

The largest holders of Ripple so called 'whales' have increased their buying activity in view of the upcoming SEC decision.

Ripple chart, D1 interval. The price has overcome the key resistance near $0.55, set by previous price reactions. The chart, which resembles a technical saucer formation, may indicate a more permanent reversal of the downward trend.​

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DE30​

German retail sales data for February was released today at 7:00 am BST. Report was expected to show a 0.5% MoM increase as well as 5.1% YoY drop in retail sales. However, actual data turned out to be much worse than expected with monthly data showing a 1.3% drop and annual data showing 7.0% YoY plunge. DE30 ticked lower following the release while EURUSD saw a minor uptick.

DE30 dipped after miss in German retail sales.
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Cardano​

• Bitcoin stays above $28,000, smaller projects record increases​
• Among altcoins, Cardano records record highs​
• Growth is fueled by the prospect of Cardano's integration with the Ethereum Virtual Machine​

The Ethereum Virtual Machine is a place for developers to build decentralized applications. The new feature is expected to allow Ethereum developers to create projects on the Cardano network using the Solidity coding language used on Ethereum Solidity. Without installing new tools or learning another programming language.Thanks to a new feature provided by Milkomeda, Cardano holders may soon be able to access Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), directly from their digital wallets. Investors positively welcomed the information about the potential expansion of the Cardano blockchain utility. This information was confirmed yesterday by Sebastien Guillemot, CEO of Milkomeda. Additional features are expected to include rewards for so-called staking and the construction of smart contracts on the Ethereum decentralized system (EVM). According to Guillemot, rewards for staking from Cardano's digital products built on Milkomeda will be automatically paid, every 5 days.

Cardano chart, D1 interval. The price has overcome short-term resistances approaching a test of the local peaks of mid-February 2023, at $0.42. The SMA100 average (black) is wrapping upwards and if the bulls maintain momentum it will be possible to cross the SMA200 from below, called in AT a bullish 'golden cross' formation. The formation could signal a change in trend. However, if resistance holds back the bulls the first important support should be sought at $0.35, which is set by the SMA200.​

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Economic Calendar: Manufacturing ISM, OPEC+ JMMC meeting​

• European markets set to open slightly lower​
• Oil surges after surprise OPEC output cut​
• ISM manufacturing and final PMIs in the calendar​

Futures markets point to a slightly lower opening of today's European cash session. Investors' attention is on the oil market as Brent and WTI trade 5% higher on the day after OPEC countries surprised with voluntary cuts of more than 1 million barrels. OPEC+ Joint Minister Monitoring Committee is set to meet again and will be watched closely. Timing of the post-meeting announcement is unknown, however. Apart from that, investors will be offered US ISM manufacturing print as well as final PMIs from Europe and the United States. Traders should keep in mind that this is a pre-Easter week and liquidity on the markets may be thinner. The week will also be shorter with many stock exchanges being offline on Friday.​

• 8:00 am BST - Poland, manufacturing PMI for March. Expected: 48.2. Previous: 48.5​
• 8:15 am BST - Spain, manufacturing PMI for March. Expected: 50.1. Previous: 50.7​
• 8:45 am BST - Italy, manufacturing PMI for March. Expected: 51.0. Previous: 52.0​
• 8:50 am BST - France, manufacturing PMI for March (final). First release: 47.7​
• 8:55 am BST - Germany, manufacturing PMI for March (final). First release: 44.4​
• 9:00 am BST - Euro area, manufacturing PMI for March (final). First release: 47.1​
• 9:30 am BST - UK, manufacturing PMI for March (final). First release: 48.0​
• 2:45 pm BST - US, manufacturing PMI for March (final). First release: 49.3​
• 3:00 pm BST - US, ISM manufacturing index for March. Expected: 47.5. Previous: 47.7​
• 3:00 pm BST - US, construction spending for February. Expected: 0.0% MoM. Previous: -0.1% MoM​

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Central bankers' speeches​

• 11:00 am BST - ECB Simkus​
• 1:00 pm BST - ECB Vujcic​
• 9:15 pm BST - Fed Cook​

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AUDUSD​

• US indices finished yesterday's trading mixed - S&P 500 gained 0.37%, Dow Jones moved 0.98% higher, Nasdaq dropped 0.27% and Russell 2000 traded flat​
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher today - Nikkei gained 0.3%, S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.1% higher, Kospi added 0.3% and NIfty 50 moved 0.2% higher. Indices from China traded mixed​
• DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today​
• The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the main rate unchanged at 3.60% at today's meeting. Such a decision was expected. AUD dropped as wording of the statement hinted that future rate hikes are not so certain​
• RBA noted that Australian banking system is strong, well capitalized and has ample liquidity, and therefore should not be viewed to be at similar risk as recently-failed banks in Europe or the United States​
• China has once again voiced discontent over possible meetings of Taiwanese president with US officials, saying that it will undermine regional peace, security and stability​
• ECB Simkus said that the European Central Bank is done with the larger part of the rate cycle. ECB Holzmann said that there is likely room for another 50 basis point rate hike​
• SNB Schlegel said that Swiss central bank is ready to conduct more FX interventions if necessary​
• South Korean CPI inflation decelerated from 4.8 to 4.2% YoY in March (exp. 4.3% YoY) while core gauge stayed unchanged at 4.0% YoY. This was the lowest reading of headline CPI since March 2022​
• Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 2023 Brent price forecast from $95.00 to $87.50 per barrel and 2024 forecast from $95 to $85 per barrel. Bank says that OPEC output cut hints that demand must be weak​
• Major cryptocurrencies are trading higher today - Bitcoin gains 0.7%, Ethereum trades 0.8% higher and Dogecoin rallies around 5%. Dogecoin surged yesterday after Elon Musk changed Twitter logo to Shiba Inu dog​
• Energy commodities are trading higher - oil gains around 0.4% while US natural gas prices jump 1.2%​
• Precious metals are pulling back - gold and platinum trade 0.3% lower while silver drops 0.6%​
• NZD and USD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and AUD lag the most​

AUDUSD is pulling back after the RBA decided to keep rates unchanged. The pair is retesting a recently-broken 0.6765 resistance zone but this time as a support.
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USDCHF rebounds to the 38.2% retracement of the week's trading range

The USDCHF fell sharply in the early NY session and in the process moved below the swing low going back to early August 2021 at 0.90178 (see red numbered circles on the daily chart above). The low price today reached to the nice round number of 0.9000 where some traders put a toe in the bearish water. Those buyers are breathing a sigh of relief as the price has indeed rebounded. The price has rebounded to a high of 0.90756.

That has taken the price above the February 2 low at 0.9058, and tested the swing low from March at 0.90706. The high correct price has extended to 0.90756 just above the March low.

Looking at the hourly chart, the move up off the low tested the 38.2% retracement of the week's trading range at 0.9075. Getting above the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement target of a trend like move i.e. the move down from Monday's high.

A move above the 38.2% retracement would next target the 50% retracement at 0.9098. Move above that and focus will turn toward the falling 100 hour moving average and swing area near 0.9120. Getting above all those levels would ultimately be needed if the buyers are to be taken more seriously.

Nevertheless, they could still get short-term satisfaction on a move above the 38.2% retracement.​

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DOGECOIN
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• Wall Street finished yesterday's trading higher as market odds for Fed rate hike in May dropped following another streak of disappointing data from US jobs market​
• Market now sees around 50% chance of 25 bp rate hike in May and around 50% chance of Fed leaving rate unchanged and pausing rate hike cycle​
• S&P 500 gained 0.36%, Dow Jones traded flat, Nasdaq rallied 0.76% and Russell 2000 moved 0.13% higher​
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded higher today - Nikkei gained 0.1%, Kospi added 1.3% and indices from China traded up to 0.8% higher​
• Liquidity during today's European trading session is expected to be very thin as majority of stock exchanges from the Old Continent will be shut in observance of Good Friday​
• Japanese household spending increased 1.6% YoY in February (exp. 4.2% YoY)​
• Major cryptocurrencies trade mixed - Bitcoin drops 0.1%, Litecoin gains 0.1%, Ethereum trades 0.3% higher and Dogecoin slumps 2.8%​
• AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and CAD lag the most​

DOGECOIN is one of the worst performing cryptocurrencies today. The coin has almost fully erased the price jump triggered by Elon Musk changing Twitter logo to Shiba Inu.​

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