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Gold falls back to early April levels!​

Currently, the probability for a 25bp hike in May is rated at 88%, but on the other hand, the probability for a hike in June is rated at 29%, so adding up the probability, it is expected that a hike will happen anyway.

From the current market perspective, we are seeing a decidedly stronger dollar, which is gaining along with treasury yields, which are above 3.6% for 10-year treasury yields. In addition to this, the BoJ is hinting that there should be no change in the yield curve management program at its April meeting, which is also propping up the dollar. In response, gold is losing heavily and falling not only below $2,000 per ounce, but already below $1,980 per ounce. Silver, on the other hand, is below $25 per ounce and losing almost 2%.

Gold is falling to its lowest level since early April. The next important support near the 23.6 Fibo retracement at $1950 per ounce.​

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Bitcoin

The major cryptocurrency has once again been pushed off the $30,000 level signaling a possible backdrop for a larger correction of the huge upward movement. Should the declines deepen, the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave, which began in November 2022, at $27,400, and the SMA100 (black line), which may overlap with the 38.2 Fibo at the psychological zone of $25,000, may prove to be important levels.

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DE30

The German leading index is coming under increasing pressure.


W1 chart

The DAX future / DE30 is falling today, pulling back from the high for the year, which was reached yesterday at 16,056 points. The record high remains the key resistance - the gap is around 400 points. In case of further losses, the breakout level at 15,698 points and the intermediate high at 15,463 points could be targeted.

The German leading index is coming under increasing pressure.

M15 chart

The DAX future / DE30 slipped below the low at 15,901 points, falling to its lowest level in six days. The technical situation has deteriorated in pre-market trading today - see crossover and lower lows and lower highs. With no sign of life from the bulls, the index remains vulnerable to further losses.​

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Chart of the Day - EURUSD

EURUSD is pulling back this morning. The move lower is driven mostly by strengthening of the US dollar. The main currency pair tried to recover some losses after the release of mixed PMIs for France and Germany that showed major improvement in the services sector and significant deterioration in manufacturing. While flash PMIs failed to trigger a strong recovery move, they seem to have been enough to halt declines.

Taking a look at EURUSD at the H1 interval, we can see that the pair dropped to the 1.0940 area, where the short-term upward trendline can be found. Bulls managed to defend this price zone and now we can see the pair trying to climb back above 1.0950. From a technical point of view, this is a bullish development but whether this translates into a large upward impulse will depend on whether bulls manage to break above the 1.0980 resistance zone that has been limiting upward moves this week. Should such a break occur, EUR bulls may target recent highs in the 1.1070 area next.

The pair may see some volatility around 2:45 pm BST when flash PMIs from the United States for April are released. Market expects a small deterioration in both manufacturing and services.​

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Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are losing ground against higher chances of a Fed rate hike, a stronger dollar, and regulatory risk.​

• Stronger-than-expected PMI indices in the US have increased the chances of a 25 basis point increase in Fed rates in May.​
• The stronger dollar has driven down risky assets, including Bitcoin, and weakened bullish sentiment in gold.​
• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has indicated that the company may leave the US, which has raised concerns about the shrinking global crypto market.​

Bitcoin has lost for the third day in a row. According to Coinglas data, leveraged positions worth nearly $160 million were liquidated in the past day, of which 80% were bullish bets. The value of liquidated positions on cryptocurrency derivatives this week has already exceeded $400 million. Data from Santiment shows that the number of leveraged positions in the crypto market has increased with the rising price of Bitcoin, driving optimism, but ultimately leading to a reversal in sentiment and a sharp correction. Other altcoins, including Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin, are also falling along with the largest cap BTC.

Higher-than-expected PMI readings in the US have increased the likelihood of another Fed rate hike, which the market currently values at nearly 90% probability. Hawkish statements by Fed members have also contributed to this increase. Gold, which was correlated with Bitcoin during the banking crisis, has also come under pressure. Due to regulatory uncertainty, the market may once again pay attention to the associated risks. Some US investors and traders may leave the decentralized market for safety reasons if Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US, closes its operations in the country.

The Bitcoin chart, on an H1 interval, shows that bulls are struggling to defend the $28,000 level, and a drop below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend that began in early March suggests that the next significant support level may only be at $26,700, where we see a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

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Coca-Cola on wave of strong demand and higher prices

Like other companies in the industry, the Coca-Cola Company has increased the prices of its products, but this has not affected consumer demand. In recent years, as pandemic-related restrictions have disappeared, the company has seen an increase in productivity. This is mainly due to consumers being willing to pay more for drinks in public places such as restaurants, stadiums and concerts.

Current premarket trading on Wall Street indicates that Coca-Cola (KO.US) shares have broken above the important resistance set by the local peaks of December 2022.​

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German consumer confidence at its highest level in over a year!

The index of German consumer confidence according to the GfK institute came in at -25.7 points for the reading, against a forecast of -27.7 points and a previous reading of -29.3 points. It is worth mentioning that this is the highest reading in more than a year.

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USDJPY

USDJPY is one of the FX pairs that may see elevated volatility until the end of the week. This is because of a number of top-tier releases and events from the United States and Japan, scheduled for the final two days of the week. Traders will be offered a flash release of Q1 GDP report from the United States today at 1:30 pm BST and PCE inflation data for March tomorrow at 1:30 pm BST. In between those two releases, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision.

The US GDP report is expected to show a slowdown in annualized growth rate from 2.6% in Q4 2022 to 2.0% in Q1 2023. PCE inflation for March is expected to show deceleration in core measure from 4.6 to 4.5% YoY. However, a rate decision from the Bank of Japan is potentially the biggest volatility event of the three. This will be the first BoJ meeting after Ueda took over as governor and because of that there are hopes that he may push for a change in BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy. While it looks rather unlikely that any major policy change will be delivered tomorrow, one cannot rule out significant changes in an accompanying statement. Any hints at a hawkish shift could be a significant driver for USDJPY moves.

Taking a look at USDJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in an upward channel since late-March. Advance was halted recently at 61.8% retracement of the downward move launched on March 8, 2023 (134.77 area) and the pair started to pull back. However, unless we see a break below the lower limit of the channel and below the lower limit of the Overbalance structure later on, technical picture continues to favor buyers.
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