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Gold - Chart of the Day

Gold traded lower yesterday after the publication of CPI data, with its price falling to $1941 per ounce. Today, gold traded calmly as investors await the Fed's interest rate decision later today. While many expect the rates to remain unchanged, some anticipate a more hawkish stance given the high core CPI, prompting some to exit the gold market. This has added to the caution in the market, causing a slide in gold prices.

From a technical standpoint, gold is still viewed as being in a bullish uptrend channel, suggesting also a potential upward movement in the medium time frame. However, recent price action has been rejected several times from a short-term descending trend line, suggesting that gold might be at a crucial turning point. Support is around the 1920 - 1940 area, where the 100-day SMA currently lies. A break below these levels could unfold further bearish momentum. On the upside, if gold can manage to move above the 2000 level, it could suggest a resumption of bullish momentum.​

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Economic Calendar: US Holiday opens a busy week​

• European indices set for lower opening​
• US traders off to observe a holiday​
• Rate decisions from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank later this week​

European index futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session today. This comes after declines on Wall Street on Friday and after a rather downbeat Asia-Pacific session earlier today. Oil is trading lower at the beginning of a new week after a number of banks cut GDP growth forecast for China over the weekend and Bloomberg reported that Iranian oil exports reached a 5-year high.

Economic calendar for today is empty with no top-tier releases scheduled. Trader should also keep in mind that liquidity conditions on the markets may be limited, especially in the afternoon, as traders from the United States will be off to observe a holiday and there will be no Wall Street trading session today (changes to trading hours on xStation listed below).

However, things get more interesting later into the week with a number of events that can move the markets. Those include rate decisions from Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday, flash PMIs for June on Friday as well as semiannual testimonies from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and Thursday.
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Central bankers' speeches​

• 9:00 am BST - ECB Simkus​
• 12:00 pm BST - ECB Lane​
• 12:40 pm BST - ECB Schnabel​
• 2:00 pm BST - ECB Villeroy​
• 7:00 pm BST - ECB De Guindos​

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Trading hour changes because of US holiday​

• No trading - CORN, SOYBEAN, WHEAT, SUGAR, COCOA, COFFEE, COTTON, LEANHOGS, CATTLE, SOYOIL​
• Trading until 4:30 pm BST - VIX​
• Trading until 6:00 pm BST - TNOTE, US100, US30, US500, US2000​
• Trading until 6:30 pm BST - OIL, LSGASOIL​
• Trading until 7:30 pm BST - GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM, OIL.WTI, NATGAS, GASOLINE​

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AUDUSD​

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered its last interest rate hike as a finely balanced decision.​
• There is increasing frustration due to the lack of stimulus in China.​

The Australian dollar (AUD) has become more volatile following the release of RBA minutes and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) interest rate decision. The RBA's minutes revealed a balanced stance in votes regarding interest rates, which dampened expectations of further tightening in the near future. However, the RBA remains committed to achieving its target range for inflation. Furthermore, the AUD's performance has been influenced by concerns about the Chinese economy's recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. As investors worry about China's economic outlook, the Australian dollar, often seen as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, has declined. The absence of new policy stimulus from Beijing has led to frustration in the markets, affecting the AUD's performance alongside a drop in the Chinese yuan.

From the technical perspective, AUDUSD price is 0.6% lower at 0.6810. The price attempted to break above a resistance level at 0.6887 but faced rejection, resulting in a retracement towards the support zone around 0.6793. Currently, the price consolidates and if it fails to hold above this 0.6793 level, the next support zone can be found around 0.6707. On the other hand, if the price manages to bounce back, it can potentially come back towards 0.6887.​

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Bitcoin near 29,000​

"Bulls" return to crypto. The market is reacting to more moves by financial institutions

The cryptocurrency market has had some really good days. Fear over the Binance exchange and regulations has given way to positive sentiment due to the recent actions of investment funds. It's thanks to them that the market is reassured that cryptocurrencies 'won't disappear' from Western financial markets, and Bitcoin can finally count on interest from institutions. As a result, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to break through $29,000 today.
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• Following news of a Bitcoin Trust ETF from BlackRock and a similar fund application from Fidelity Investments, investors were optimistic about Deutsche Bank's application to provide digital trust services.​
• In the evening, the market also reacted to news of the opening in the US of a new crypto exchange EDX Markets. For the moment, however, the entity will specialize in serving institutions and cannot be compared to Binance or Coinbase​
• EDX is backed by Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial, among others, some of the largest market makers in the world, as well as Charles Schwab , Fidelity Investments fund and other Wall Street institutions.​
• Today's reports from the US indicate that another institution, Invesco, has once again applied to the SEC for approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF​
• A Nomura survey indicated that 96% of professional institutional investors managing nearly $5 trillion (303 institutions) are willing to invest in cryptocurrencies, and 82% had a positive view of the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and Ethereum​
• As a result of Bitcoin's sudden rise in the market, the largest wave of short position liquidations since May 28 took place (Approx. $40 million liquidation in the last 24 h according to CoinGlass)​

On-Chain data shows the fastest increase in Bitcoin flows to institutions with very little or even zero trading history in more than 6 months. This behavior of the network may indicate an accumulation trend on the part of long-term investors.

Bitcoin (BITCOIN) stock chart, W1 interval. The largest cryptocurrency has rebounded from the lower limit of the uptrend sustained since the beginning of this year and is currently heading towards the upper resistance barrier, set by the zone of local peaks from April this year.​

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Economic Calendar: Survey Data from Germany and US, central bankers speeches​

• European indices set for flat opening​
• Survey data from Germany and the United States​
• Speeches from ECB and SNB members​

Markets remain calm after a short-lived Russian coup that took place over the weekend. PMC Wagner rebelled against the Russian Ministry of Defense, took control of few Russian cities and launched an armored column towards Moscow. However, agreement between Wagner and the Kremlin was brokered by Belarusian leader Lukashenko and rebellion ended before any hostilities took place.

European index futures point to flat opening of today's cash session on the Old Continent. Energy commodities and precious metals are trading slightly higher while the US dollar is pulling back. Economic calendar for today is light. Traders will be offered German IFO indices for June in the morning as well as Dallas Fed index for June in the afternoon. Apart from that, EUR and CHF may see some moves today as we have a number of SNB and ECB officials scheduled to speak.

Economic release schedule gets more interesting later into the week with CPI inflation from Europe and PCE data from the United States.​

• 9:00 am BST - Germany, IFO Business Climate index for June. Expected 90.8. Previous: 91.7​
• 9:00 am BST - Poland, unemployment rate for May. Expected: 5.1%. Previous: 5.2%​
• 3:30 pm BST - US, Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June. Expected: -20.0. Previous: -29.1​

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Central bankers' speeches​

• 8:15 am BST - ECB Villeroy​
• 9:40 am BST - SNB Jordan​
• 3:00 pm BST - ECB McCaul​
• 3:25 pm BST - SNB Maechler​
• 6:30 pm BST - ECB President Lagarde​
• 6:30 pm BST - ECB De Cos​

 

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EURUSD

The EURUSD rate reached the zone where very strong supply has been triggered in recent months. We can also see that each time as we approached 1.10 the bears eventually took control. The key support on the Eurodollar is at 1.073 where we see the SMA200 on the D1 interval and the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from the autumn, last year. A drop below the SMA100 (black line) at 1.084 could indicate an imminent test of these levels. Another key level set by the Fibo and price reactions is 1.05 where we see the 38.2 abolition. If sellers take control, we may see an RGR-like formation on the chart - a downward scenario, could reverse the medium-term trend.

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Oil​

• Saudi Arabia and Russia's supply cut announcement fails to offset concerns over manufacturing activity slowdown worldwide​
• Deceleration in China, Eurozone, and the US manufacturing PMI data contribute to the downward pressure on WTI prices​

Despite the supply cut efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI crude oil prices continue to face downward pressure due to concerns about a global economic slowdown. The slowdown in manufacturing activity worldwide, as evident from PMI data, has overshadowed the impact of the supply cuts. China's manufacturing PMI indicates a modest expansion but a continued deceleration, while the Eurozone and Germany are experiencing deceleration and a technical recession. The US manufacturing PMI suggests a slowing economy, which could have implications for the rate hike decisions of the US Federal Reserve. Additionally, Russia's plan to reduce exports to boost oil prices is overshadowed by China's slow reopening.

Amidst the deteriorating global manufacturing sector, the bearish sentiment for crude oil persists. Despite OPEC+ cuts and monetary stimulus from China, oil prices remain range-bound. The resistance at $73 has led to repeated rejections, maintaining a bearish bias. There is a possibility of testing the support level at $67.44 or further at $64, and a break below this level could trigger a significant downward movement towards the $57 level. Currently, the price is likely to test the $67.44 support, where buyers might enter the market. Otherwise, if buyers step in, the price may find support and potentially rally towards the $73 resistance zone.​

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