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Trade description - November 27, 2009

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Dec 4, 2009.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Trade Description
    November 27, 2009

    You can follow my trading here.

    Sive Morten Signals - Forex Trading Signals Test by Forex Peace Army

    Today, I'm going to go over these two trades.

    27 November, 2009. Sell EUR/USD 1.4904 t/p 1.4870 s/l 1.4903 (1,0 lot)
    27 November 2009. Buy EUR/USD 1.4885 t/p 1.4970 s/l 1.4850 (0,5 lot)
    Result – “179.00$” (closed at 1.4986)
    Result – “425.00$” t/p


    These were very interesting trades because they were based on directional signals, such as double penetration of moving average (Double Repo) and single penetration (Bread & Butter). So, let’s go through them.

    1. Bread and Butter trade.

    This was an 1 hour context – 5 min entry trade and context for this trade was as follows. Look at the 1-hour chart – we had an excellent down thrust move, market has reached an OP (maybe there was even an Agreement with Fib support, I don’t remember precisely) and stared retracement:

    1-hour chart
    [​IMG]

    So the basic entry for this kind of trade is a moment that the market should continue down move after a retracement higher, with great probability because of the strong down thrust. It’s like a momentum of the market. At least till the 0.618 Fib level of the whole back move. When the retracement has started, there is just one thing left – I had to find the Fib. Resistance level where price should reverse down and I could start my short trade. There were a lot of Fib levels, so which one I had to choose? I’ve chose Fib confluence area first, but then I’ve saw that price didn’t reach this Fib confluence resistance at 1.4939-1.4941 and had showed a Wash & Rinse of another Fib resistance level at 1.4920. This was my signal to enter. Target, as I say, is 0.618 support from the whole up retracement – 1.4867 level. Let’s see, what had happened then… (look at 5-min chart)

    1-hour chart
    [​IMG]

    20-min chart
    [​IMG]

    5-min chart
    [​IMG]

    So, the market has reached a predetermined target level at 0.618 support. Unfortunately, it didn’t reach my t/p for 0.5 pips, and it was very fast trade, so I had to exit manually. But then I saw another and even more interesting possibility to trade - Double Repo.

    2. Double Repo trade.

    DR uses the same thrust for context, but demands double cross of 3x3 SMA. Also it shouldn’t have too much and deep consolidation between tops (or bottoms). So, when I’ve saw appreciation of my target level by the price, when it reached it for the second time and couldn’t break through, I’ve entered for a long position. Strictly, you need to wait for confirmation first – second close above 3x3 SMA to open a position, but I was near the computer and can watch and control the situation. If I will not receive this close – I close the position. So, how does it look like:

    1-hour chart
    [​IMG]

    Besides, I’ve entered before confirmation, because saw a solid thrust from the level on 5-min chart:
    [​IMG]

    Then, I’ve calculated LPO’s and had chosen my target just above an OP (1.4963) at 1.4970. Although I could have chosen an XOP (It also was reached as you can see below), because the daily trends were up and confirmed the direction of the trade, my target was OP – because I had to leave this position overnight and I was sure that it will touch OP. About XOP I was not have confidence enough. Besides, remember that this trade was just after the news about Dubai came out.
    So, the last chart:

    1-hour chart
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Slim Trady

    Slim Trady Private

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    Hi Sive,

    Interesting analysis.

    Could you explain your frequent reference to the 3x3 sma please.
    I've never come across this.

    I use the 10 SMA which is almost the same but not quite.

    Just curious.

    Cheers

    Adrian
     
  3. CyberTrader

    CyberTrader Recruit

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    A 3x3 SMA is a 3 period SMA shifted 3 periods forward. :D
     
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hello Adrian,
    Well, in DiNapoli technic 3x3 means 3-period SMA displaced forward for 3 periods. MT4 allows to do that.
    And it uses in not common way. 3x3 not just SMA - it neccesary part of DiNapoli directional indicators - such as Double Repo, Bread& Butter, False Double Repo.

    Sive
     
  5. tadinda

    tadinda Private, 1st Class

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    Just purely fantastic Sive.

    THanks once again.

    If you can take us through trades like these,explaining the directional indicators of DiNapoli and your take on how the market is going to react would be simply bliss.

    THanks again and please keep it up.

    Ernest
     
  6. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Yes, Joe's technic is awesome. I wish that most of my trades should be like these.
    But they unfortunately not ;). Mistakes, mistakes... They are a part of this kitchen.

    By the way, look at NZD/ USD weekly (my demo at Alpari does not allow to trade at this pair)... I didn't analyze it with scrutiny, but picture looks interesting.

    Sive.
     
  7. tadinda

    tadinda Private, 1st Class

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    NZD USD Weekly

    Sive,

    I am going to be bold and try to analyise. Most probably I am going to get it all wrong.

    I am attaching the week chart as well and hereunder I will explain my reasoning and likely trade and TP objective. I will also try to state why.

    Looks to me like we have a Double Repo X 2. If that exists or is a contradiction in itself. Why? Well we had a very good number of UP THRUST Bars. Then we had the first Repo - Two Closes below the 3X3. And the second Repo another two closes below the 7X5.

    THe MACD is showing a short direction and so is the Stochastic.

    The Detrend Oscialltor is where I usually start having problems with and this is a perfect case to explain my difficulty.

    THe DEtrend is below zero line. So it also indicates Short. It has already made two Weekly OB Levels, so I imagine the next move will be towards a OS Level. (I say this becasue in most of your posts you say things like ........it has not made an OB or OS yet........)However, currently the Detrend Oscillator is Pointing upwards (this is where I start to disbelieve my own analysis).

    I have drawn Fib Support Lines for the Monthly as shown on the attached chart. Named MS1 3 and MS1 6.
    I have also drawn a Fib Expansion on the first ABC move. I labled them WD1 COP, OP and XOP.

    To me, it looks like there is agreement between WD1 XOP and MS1 3. There is about 70 pips difference. If this qualifies as Agreement am not sure. Or if it would be more technically correct to say Confluence.

    MS1 3 being the first Support that should me made as a retracement to the strong upmove strengthens my belief that the WD1 XOP should be my Profit Target.

    My Entry Comments. The daily appears bearish as well. However the HOurly looks it is set to retrace. Therefore my entry would be at 0.618 retracement on the Hour big down move. 0.7217. Not shown on the atatched Chart.

    As regards SL. That is something I have not mastered yet.

    Another thing I have not mastered is patience. I do not think I will be able to just take a trade and wait for it to develop towards the profit objective I have set. So most probably what I would be doing (and maybe this is another wrong thing I would be doing) is to use the Hour Chart to try to pick up as many short pips as possible with every attainment of the Hourly OS. Wait for a retrace on the Hourly Chart and get back in short at 0.618 fib.

    Sive as I said I have been very bold but wanted to give you an idea of how my brain works since I have been following your posts.

    Once again most probabaly the whole analysis is wrong and that is why I am still loosing money in the forex market.

    Excuse the length of this post, Sive, but I wanted to provide you with as much information as possible to hopefully tell me what I am doing wrong.


    Ernest
     
  8. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Ernest, your charts didn't attach at some reason.
    There is no such Directional pattern as DRPO with 7x5. There is only 3x3 DRPO can be. About the Thrust you're right.

    In general - Direction overruled the trend. If market shows directional indicator and trend does not confirm it you should trade in directional side.
    But the fact that trend confirms directional indicator - additional plus.

    Ernest, I said a bit another word - "reach" instead of "made" . So, the direction of DOSC does not matter. The only thing, that matter - extreme numbers. Why I have told that? Well, if market in trend, and does not REACH an OB/OS level then you should not worry about OB or OS that can be a barrier to the market move. If market reach an OB or OS with Fib level, then you get "Stretch" - another directional pattern. So, DOSC is needed only for determination of OB and OS levels and it direction does not important at all. The fact that DOSC is lower that zero does not indicate short. DOSC is just a filter to decide - does it safe to enter market now or not? Or, does it time to exit? When DOSC is near OB or OS it' just a signal for you that market can become unstable soon, especcially if FIb level near.

    Well, unfortunately, I do not see your chart as attach to post. I'll try to post a chart from CQG with markings on Monday, that I think important. Then, you can compare it with your own thoughts, and ask questions.
    I do not remember presicely for now, but it seems that you're right about Agreement with XOP. Besides, This DRPO is a tricky a bit for now, because it should reach OP on Friday (I do not see chart for now, but I expect that happened already). That's why model did it work already. But it does not mean that it can't reach an XOP. this is my target acctually, but I'd in short a week ago.

    Sive
     
  9. tadinda

    tadinda Private, 1st Class

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    Charts Uploaded

    Sorry Sive and Sentinel,

    I just learnt that there is an upload button which needs pressing. The charts are now atatched.

    Ernest

    PS. Now I read your comments
    Thanks
     

    Attached Files:

  10. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Nzd/usd Drpo

    Here it is...
    Ernest, looks like your expansions are calculated correctly. I also think, that zone around XOP is a bit wide for agreement, but nevertheless, it much stronger than ordinary Fib level.

    As I understand you are a bit confused with confluence and agreement difference. Confluence - is a coinciding of Fib levels (strictly 0.382 and 0.618) there can be no confluence between 0.382 and 0.382 or 0.618 and 0.618. Only 0.382 and 0.618. Agreement - is a coinciding of LPOs (i.e COP, OP or XOP) with any Fib level (0.382 or 0.618) or with Confluence area - in this case this level is much stronger.

    About enter... Remember - this is a weekly chart, so, I think that using of daily instead of hourly can be more appropriate. However this thing is very personal. You can use both of them - daily and hourly.
     

    Attached Files:

    #10 Sive Morten, Dec 7, 2009
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2009

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