Trade-Vantage.com

Konstantine

Recruit
Messages
2
Hello Gentlemen/Ladies.

My name is Konstantin, and i'm the creator of TradeVantage software.

First, let me give my apologies about all those issues that we were having with the software during the last 2 weeks, and which was the reason of such a weird behaviour of the system that you could observe.

These issues were the results of data inconsistency that happened on the server, and i was trying to do my best to get it recovered and have the functionality that i supposed to give to that product. Unfortunately, with those extra time zones to be added immediately after product release, didnt bring simplicity into whole project, except new issues and bugs that i was trying to fix as soon as i could.

So the major reason of these issues is the data inconsistency, and neural network models worked exactly as expected-once they got new data from the database, they gave the recommendations, but having in mind that the data is different that was previously used, neural network changed it accordingly. I was working on rebuilding server side, and it seems that it's done, fixed, and the data is stable right now as i can see using AUE version of the software. No bars changed, the models are updated correctly, and once the final end of day bar appears in the system, it gives the final recommendation which goes to the history and never can be changed.

Let me give you brief description of how it works in background.

We have 3 different timezones built on the data server, which allows users from different regions to pick up one that is the most comfortable for them to get entry and exit points for trades. So the first one is 8am ET, second one is 3am ET for Europe, and 7pm for Japanese people. Based on these timeframes, hourly bars are processed to form end of day bars. When we switch between different timezones, different bars are used to build up the model. That's the point that we have to keep in mind-it's important to make sure that at the moment of model update, the last bar is the final, and will not be changed.

Like you could notice, when we updated the models on the server at 7-55am, they could give changed recommendation at the next update, because daily bar at 7-55am wasnt the same as at 8am. Some of them had significant price gaps, and hi-lo-cl prices were different. We could see that neural network gave you BUY for example at 7-55, and then, at the next day, when it's updated, and previous non-closed intraday bar was replaced with the final one, it gave HOLD/NONE or even SELL signal.

I do agree that it looked more than suspicious, and i wish i could get it fixed earlier! With 69 models running on the server, it took some time, sorry.

But, it seems that it's done, and the software doesnt have those issues anymore. Right now, when you click the model in Basic version, it downloads the neural network results from the server, and gets the latest intraday bar (which is updated every 10 minutes) to show the dynamics of price change during the day, and reflect current profit/loss based on it. And till the moment that bar is not closed (at 8am), neural network will not give any new forecasting on that bar. Signals are consistent now, and are not changed in the history.

As for AUE version, which i would recommend to use instead of Basic one.. AUE version is not tied up with server models, so they are all adjustable, you can create them on your PC locally, track their performance, do paper trading-whatever you want to make sure that the model is stable, robust, and works exactly as supposed. This AUE version has many adjustable parameters for neural network model, like filtration level, signals frequency, neural network structure, and many others. You can do all the steps that are supposed to be done on the server by DB manager, by yourself, and that way, you can create the model that fits the best for your needs and trading style. Here're basic steps to operate with it, so you'll not be confused:

1. we need to find optimal model for our pair, and selected timezone. There're 5 pre-defined models that are available, so all we need to do is to create 5 different models for saying EURUSD, with different model types. One they created, we need to:
2. learn them all. it will take about 10 minutes to get them learned, so we'll be able to estimate their performance and decide which one works the best for us. Someone wants higher accuracy with lower risk, and someone-higher profit with higher risk, so it's up to trader to define which one seems the best. for estimating and picking one, we can use LISTING batch process that will place all the statistics for those models into one Excel file.
3. Now, we can select the model and continue working with it. I would try to relearn it couple of times to make sure that it produces similar results every time, and is not stuck into local minimum.

You need to know, that every neural network model is unique. At the moment of its creating, the weights in internal structure are randomized, that gives us unique model that gives its unique results of data analyzing. After creating the model, if we do not learn it, the models with the same parameters will show exactly the same results (which are just the set or random signal as the model doesnt have any memory or classification functions yet), because i had to replace randomization function with pseudo-random, trying to avoid questions 'why the same model for the same pair with the same parameter shows different results even after creating'.

So, learning process is target function optimization to minimize error (or to maximize profit, which is the same in our point), and every single model will try to find its own optimal state. That gives us the result that the models will show slightly different results after learning, even if they have the same parameters. The results will not be too different, they will be close, but the numbers can be 'not the same' which might bring some confusion too. That's all right, and that's how neural network theory is working. They still show similar results, but the signals can be shifted to 1-2 bars in one of them.

So once the model is learned, it's ready to use, and if you dont change the model, it will not change the signals that it built for the past. We can expect similar accuracy on unknown data, if we selected optimal model for the pair, all we need to do is to update model every day at 8am (to make sure that the current bar is closed and the prices will not be changed), and relearn it periodically if we see that the accuracy decreases, or if out of sample period is getting longer than 10%-15% of overall historical period we used for modelling.

Of course, when we relearn the model, internal structure is randomized, all the memory is erased, rules are undefined, patterns are not formed, and after relearning, it will (may) show different results (signals) that it had before relearning. That's why it's important to do relearn when the model in flat state-there's no open trade.

Someone could notice last week that AUDCAD placed on the server (which is Basic version) had weird accuracy about 30%, with loss on overall history. I found that the model wasnt learned correctly, and produced wrong signals that were used. So i had to relearn it, which gave model performance increase, signals changes in the past, numbers jumping up, etc.

Well, i think that the server side is stable right now, i'm going to do optimization work for all those models that are placed on the server, as they are not optimized, that's why they are not performing well. Also, they are running for 3 weeks already, and need to be relearned soon. I just need to notify users about that, and clarify the results of that maintenance so they understand where from those signals changes are coming.

Neural network is not fixed system, it's flexible, and during learning, it's trying to set up internal rules, define patterns and clusters so it will be able to work with unknown data. Every time we learn it, those rules sets are different. It's just like changing period for indicator, but actually TradeVantage has 300+ inputs to analyze and make its own decision on current market data. And after successful learning, i can say it has the ability to do that correctly on unknown data-pattern recognition, classification, different trends definition, and so on.

Well i hope that my clarifications helped anyone to understand it better, and i still hope that you'll find it useful finally, having in mind that all those major issues were fixed and now it works how it should from the beginning.

If you have any questions, i would be happy to assist and answer any of them.

Thank you!

Best regards,
Konstantin.
 

BigT1

Sergeant Major
Messages
951
Hello Bogie,
Read the documentation I provided. Their Programmer works from within in Dustin's office. He is Konstantin Grek. He has replied to me with an attempt to explain how his system works, but he is clueless on the legal and ethical ramifications of marketing false past future predictions as having occurred in real time, which he openly acknowledges. As a geek programmer from a foreign country with weak English skills, he appears genuine in his efforts to create a system that works; but he has hooked up with a devilish marketeer who has no scrupples, and has abused him for their mutual gain. Please search for Dustin's past "Managed Accounts" scam from 2008, well documented here at FPA.
 

BigT1

Sergeant Major
Messages
951
Thank you Wavefour for your helpful contibution. I can confirm that the TradeVantage webinars were a constant replay of one singular, previously recorded webinar, with some live chat accompanyment behind the scenes to make it appear the webinars were live. Pointed questions I raised during them about the system were simply ignored during the webinar presentations. You are 100% correct on that point.
I do sense however, that their unfortunate programmer, Konstantin Grek has been misused in the worst way. My hunch is he has a good kernel of an idea, but he has been duped and hijacked by a cheap marketeer for a quick buck. He has been shackled and beaten like a rented mule. His hopes of riches are soon to be dashed. Dustin is an urchin and deserves to be roasted over an open flame not only for this, but his history of mediocre crap and outright fraud ( please refer to the Managed Account fraud of 2008). Konstantin appears unfamiliar with US legalities, and is clueless regarding the ethics of presenting false past future predictions. That term has specific meaning in fianancial regulatory environments. I urge you to review my Scam Alert, Review, Forum postings, and Uploads on this matter. I am Anthony Ingrassia, an NFA registered CTA ID#: 0278164 and am placing my credentials and reputation behind my statements here, for no possible gain, and at great personal risk. Someone must stop this creep in his tracks.
 
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wavefour

Recruit
Messages
4
Here is an update on my refund with TradeVantage.

Today 4/26/2012 I received this email.

We have received your TradeVantage refund request and you are within your refund period. We will be attempting to reach you by phone to complete your refund within 2-3 business days. However, if you would like to expedite this process you may try to reach this department directly by calling 904-638-1990 ex 405 between the hours of 8AM - 6PM ET. Voicemails will be returned.

FYI - we took down the Ask a Question link only temporarily as we didn't have the resources to manage it at the moment and clients were using it instead of the support system to submit support questions.

Daniel

I went ahead and called the number listed and got a recording stating that this voicemail box was full and to try back at a later time. I would imagine it would be.

I will keep you posted.
 

BigT1

Sergeant Major
Messages
951
Wavefour,
Daniel,
We will all be interested in your progress in obtaining a refund, which should have required nothing more than an email request.
My guess is this is going to be a real mess. I suggest you notify your Credit Card company, bank, PayPal, or any other payment venue of your demand to them at this time; this to confirm you made your request within their advertized refund period. My sympathies; and best of luck.

FPA has offered my the opportunity to open a Trader's Court Case against Dustin. Since I was not roped into purchasing their system, I can only act as a "Friend of the Court", not a plaintiff. Please consider doing so yourself, whether or nor not you eventually obtain a speedy refund. Use my posts and uploaded documents, and contact me should you require support.
 
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ForexVerified

Private, 1st Class
Messages
581
I'd be cautious about disputing the charge with the CC company that quickly - most of them give you 90 days. And with many CC's, if you dispute a charge because of a problem with a vendor, they might force you to change your CC number and get new cards. Big pain in the rear if you have auto-pay stuff set up. :mad:

Speaking from a vendor's perspective... a charge dispute fee runs about $35 and puts a black mark on your record with the merchant provider. If someone was trying to get a refund from me I would hope they could give me a little chance to process it myself before filing a dispute. If anything, a follow-up email with a threat to file a dispute should do the trick since they'll want to save the fee and the black mark on their record. Might get your request faster attention too. :cool:

Scott Wang
Forex Verified
 

BigT1

Sergeant Major
Messages
951
Hello Scott,
You misunderstood my recommendation. I did not suggest disputing the charge as a first line of defense. I meant to suggest a disgruntled customer should NOTIFY the CC company by telephone of his disagreement with the vendor, and their failure to honor their guarantee. They will annotate your account with your remarks, which later will put you in good stead if and when it becomes necessary to force a chargeback. FYI, the law in the US is quite strict. The CC company has only 60 days to reverse a charge; after that, the client is out of luck. In most cases, the path through ClickBank, Digital River (SWReg, RegNow), etc. will be effective. Plimus has had such a bad experience with digital products it has exited the business of offering them.

I also recommend all clients use American Express for digital purchases whenever possible. They, by far, offer the best customer service and consumer protections. They are also least favored by vendors because they are the most expensive and discriminating intermediary. FYI, Paypal specifically refuses to process refund requests against digital product vendors.

Black Marks are certainly accrued against vendors with much greater effectiveness than against a long standing, good paying client who has complained he received no relief from any vendor who refuses to honor his guarantee. I would not do business with any CC company that charges a customer a chargeback fee. Never heard of it. The fee is always assessed against the errant vendor. As a vendor, your best protection is to not sell crap, and immediately honor your guarantee.
Note: As a Grand Affiliate Marketer, Forex Verified is surely in a weak position with most of its offerings. That Scott, is the price of your doing business with dubious vendors.

I'd be cautious about disputing the charge with the CC company that quickly - most of them give you 90 days. And with many CC's, if you dispute a charge because of a problem with a vendor, they might force you to change your CC number and get new cards. Big pain in the rear if you have auto-pay stuff set up. :mad:

Speaking from a vendor's perspective... a charge dispute fee runs about $35 and puts a black mark on your record with the merchant provider. If someone was trying to get a refund from me I would hope they could give me a little chance to process it myself before filing a dispute. If anything, a follow-up email with a threat to file a dispute should do the trick since they'll want to save the fee and the black mark on their record. Might get your request faster attention too. :cool:

Scott Wang
Forex Verified
 
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ForexVerified

Private, 1st Class
Messages
581
I would not do business with any CC company that charges a customer a chargeback fee. Never heard of it.
I'm sorry I think you misunderstood, I said that "speaking from a vendor's perspective" I would always ask that a client contact us about a refund rather than going straight to the CC company. I was implying that if the voicemail box was full, perhaps one more attempt via email would be better than going through the hassle of disputing charges with the CC company.

Note: As a Grand Affiliate Marketer, Forex Verified is surely in a weak position with most of its offerings. That Scott, is the price of your doing business with dubious vendors.
I'm sorry, what do you mean? We don't process payments for any vendors so we don't have issues with that. :) When we operated Metatrader247.com we would get chargebacks from people buying VPS service using stolen credit cards and that was a hassle. Sometimes a full 6 months of VPS fees would get charged back because some poor sucker only looks at their CC statements twice a year. Normal limit I've seen is 90 days but some companies go back even further.

ANYWAY this is getting pretty far off topic and it was not my intent to hijack the thread! I was just saying don't contact the CC company until you know you're filing a dispute. I'm sure TradeVantage/Dustin is flooded with refund requests right now and they take time to process. I actually feel sorry for him, hyping up the system so much, putting all that work into making sales, just to have everyone get refunds. Maybe he'll forward test the next one before marketing it. :cool:

Scott
 

BigT1

Sergeant Major
Messages
951
Good find wavefour. Dustin indicated in his marketing campaign for TradeVantage that they had a "Stock Version", the basic version to be included with the purchase. After viwing that Omnovia recorded presentation, it is quite obvious this is the same work, repackaged for forex; with the same issues no doubt, at 5 times the price.
Please update us on your progress in trying to obtain a refund.

Here is something you might find interesting. Looks like our friend Konstantin Grek also works with Options University out of Boca Raton, FL. Click this link http://pennystockinfo.org/go/optionsneuromaster.php to watch the seminar.
 
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