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Tuesday September 13, 2011 NY TIME 4:30am EDT – UK CPI y/y

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Sep 12, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello members

    Today we have UK CPI, and a chance for us to make some pips, I have provided a in-depth analysis of this release, Please find my trade plan below which I’m sure you will find it useful and educational too.

    UK CPI y/y
    Forecast 4.5%
    Previous 4.4%
    Pair to trade: GBP/USD

    The numbers we will look for:
    BUY GBP/USD if we get 4.8%
    SELL GBP/USD if we get 4.2%


    Economical Impact: High (will bring strong volatility)
    Typical Result: Good for currency
    Occurrence: Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends

    Spike Analysis Based on last Release of CPI y/y Range

    [​IMG]

    About our Triggers:
    We will be looking for a deviation of 0.3% to BUY and a negative -0.3 to SELL.
    If our deviation is hit, there is a strong and concussive possibility that the market will move 40 pips on spike immediately either way, based on history this spike will have a good chance 50% retracement, I do not recommend entering in the trade unless we see a 50% retracement.

    What is it? Why does the market care?
    Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. The common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment. Consumer price index is a key way to measure these changes and inflation in the UK.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Special Note
    Please be diligent trading this report as the core CPI figures are also out; however I do not expect the numbers to conflict.

    Pre News
    Approximately 15 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term LONG position using GBP/USD pair.
    I would be out of this LONG trade 1 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

    How to determine my Pre news trade
    Please only follow this if you have basic knowledge of technical’s, if not please practice and use various demo accounts prior to using any professional strategy I suggest. To determine my long position on an MT4 chart, I will pull up a 1min time frame GBP/USD chart. I will then load two MA (moving average) indicators to my GBP/USD chart, the first MA I will load will be on set to period 9 whilst the other I will set to a period of 20. I would also recommend you change the colour of both I usually use green and red.
    when I see the uptrend occur and my MA crosses over I will enter long, I want to be out of this trade in profit at least 2 min before the release. I will have a Stop loss of 15 pips and a TP either when I see the trade looking flat (looking at Volume Bars that is) or when an initial reversal comes to play.

    Your MA should look like the chart below, red and green I would have entered long on this trade during the cross over.

    [​IMG]

    Spike Trading
    I do recommend spike trading as an option if you have an Auto clicker and obviously you are using a broker that you can control slippage/bounds

    After Spike
    I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame. I expect to be in this trade running for over just over 45 mins in total.

    Historical Chart and Data UK CPI y/y

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Sep 12, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. b4ndid4o

    b4ndid4o Recruit

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    Hello Stavro!

    Thanks for sharing your strategy!:D
     
  3. shahdol muttalib

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    MA

    dear Sive

    Can i know what number you use for MA ?

    Thanks for analysis

    Best Regards
    shah
     
  4. ck3

    ck3 Recruit

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    Thanks for sharing.

    It is a very good article which sharing the practical strategies. Furthermore it provides the technical strategies like Fib and MA cross over.
     
  5. amburskelly

    amburskelly Recruit

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    ma number

    Thanks in thousands for the massage can i know the number for ma kool
     
  6. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Sorry im not Sive

    I'am Stavro D'Amore and its in my trade Plan
     
  7. jokkymum

    jokkymum Private

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    Re- Numbers to look for

    :unhappy: hi starvo, i somtimes asked abot the how to get "THE NUMBERS TO LOOK FOR" E.g - 4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 4.5% Previous 4.4%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
    and you will say if well av a deviation of -0.3 or 0.3 well sell/buy respectively..Pls my question now is ao do i get this numbers? Am i going to minus the forcast from the actuall or vice versa? You directed me too the calandar the last time,but the numbers to look for are not there...
    Pls i am confused about this.......
     
  8. qwerty63

    qwerty63 Private

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    Cool, your description looks more and more useful for others.
    This trade also went good and I suppose some made pips today :)

    Sometimes you can also write something about what do you think about price action, where it can go if numbers come with no deviation or very small, not tradeable. If for example this release came with +0,1 and trend and overall sentiment was bearish - than we could suppose that price goes little up and then a lot more down and here there is also possibility to earn some pips. So if you have some thoughts on that, you can also share in your trade plans.
    Thanks a lot and good luck.
     
  9. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    The triggers were not hit. However I made 15 pips on pre news trading using the moving average method
    I provided I hope some followed me correctly and made some pips I got in LONG at 1.5779 and out 1.5794
     
  10. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Jockymum PM me and ill be happy to guide you :)
     

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