Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hey Folks:
Last week's market was driven by strong USD strength partly due to the improved fundamental outlook and the positive expectation for the NFP release set during early week. However, market fell into utter confusion immediately after the NFP release as traders needed time to digest the worse than expected release figures. But when all dusts settled towards the end of the day, USD remained strong and it is my opinion that the general USD bullishness remains unchanged, and if anything, last Friday's NFP release provided evidence that the U.S. economy is recovering on trend, althought not as fast as we would like, it is recovering nonetheless.
Therefore, I'd be leaning towards general USD strength for the week. i.e. I would prefer to be BUYING USD instead of SELLING it. Any news event in the direction of USD is expected to move a bit more than against it, in my opinion.
Here's the list for the news releases for the week:
1. Wed. January 12, 2011 - 7:30pm EST - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data
2. Thu. January 13, 2011 - 7:00am EST - UK BOE Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
3. Thu. January 13, 2011 - 7:45am EST - EU ECB Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
4. Fri. January 14, 2011 - 8:30am EST - US Core CPI
Historical Chart & Data
5. Fri. January 14, 2011 - 8:30am EST - US Core Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
The main event for the week is the Retail Sales out of US on Friday. Since 66% of U.S. GDP is comprised of Retail Sales, this data is very likely to move the market, plus this will be the first time for the market to get an official reading over the December consumer spending report.
Of course, if we do get a strong Retail Sales, which is very likely, market could be gearing up for the upcoming US 4th Quarter GDP on the 28th of January and we could see some more USD buying starting next week.
If you keep your focus on the big picture, you'd soon see that market is not as random as you once believed.
Thanks,
Last week's market was driven by strong USD strength partly due to the improved fundamental outlook and the positive expectation for the NFP release set during early week. However, market fell into utter confusion immediately after the NFP release as traders needed time to digest the worse than expected release figures. But when all dusts settled towards the end of the day, USD remained strong and it is my opinion that the general USD bullishness remains unchanged, and if anything, last Friday's NFP release provided evidence that the U.S. economy is recovering on trend, althought not as fast as we would like, it is recovering nonetheless.
Therefore, I'd be leaning towards general USD strength for the week. i.e. I would prefer to be BUYING USD instead of SELLING it. Any news event in the direction of USD is expected to move a bit more than against it, in my opinion.
Here's the list for the news releases for the week:
1. Wed. January 12, 2011 - 7:30pm EST - AU Employment Change
Historical Chart & Data
2. Thu. January 13, 2011 - 7:00am EST - UK BOE Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
3. Thu. January 13, 2011 - 7:45am EST - EU ECB Rate Decision
Historical Chart & Data
4. Fri. January 14, 2011 - 8:30am EST - US Core CPI
Historical Chart & Data
5. Fri. January 14, 2011 - 8:30am EST - US Core Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
The main event for the week is the Retail Sales out of US on Friday. Since 66% of U.S. GDP is comprised of Retail Sales, this data is very likely to move the market, plus this will be the first time for the market to get an official reading over the December consumer spending report.
Of course, if we do get a strong Retail Sales, which is very likely, market could be gearing up for the upcoming US 4th Quarter GDP on the 28th of January and we could see some more USD buying starting next week.
If you keep your focus on the big picture, you'd soon see that market is not as random as you once believed.
Thanks,
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