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GBPUSD Forex Analysis: Downtrend Likely to Continue

Stay updated with the latest Forex Analysis and Forex News in this article for the GBPUSD currency pair. You will find valuable information about both technical and fundamental analysis related to GBPUSD.

The GBPUSD currency closed under the 1.2591 support and the 0.382 level of Fibonacci retracement. Zooming to the 4 hour chart, the pair has tested the broken support which now acts as resistance. Consequently, the downtrend of GBPUSD is likely to continue, and the next target would be the 1.2468 area if the 1.264 pivot is not breached. Please note that as long as the GBPUSD trades below the pivot, the bearish scenario remains valid.

On the flip side, resistance is at the pivot at 1.2626. The bulls must close above the pivot to raise the GBPUSD price to 1.2779 again. This level of resistance is very strong and the market couldn't break through it in the last couple of weeks.​

 

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EURUSD Analysis: Can the Bears Hold Below 1.083 Pivot Level?

The EURUSD Currency pair is currently trading near the 1.083 pivot level. A bearish long wick shadow candle has formed near this level, indicating potential downward pressure on the pair. Additionally, the RSI indicator is hovering below the signal line, further supporting the bearish market outlook for EURUSD.

If the 1.083 pivot level holds, a decline to 1.073 is likely. However, on the flip side, if the bulls can close above the 1.083 pivot, a target of 1.089 can be considered.
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A long wick shadow candle is a line on a candlestick chart that shows the highest and lowest prices a stock has traded at during a specific time period. It helps to show how the price of the stock has changed compared to its opening and closing prices. In simpler terms, it's a way to see the range of prices a stock has had over a certain time.​

 

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GBPUSD: The Pivot Prevailed

The GBPUSD currency pair experienced a decline after reaching the 1.264 pivot point. The downward trend is expected to persist, with targets set at 1.255 and 1.248.

 

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Crucial GBPUSD Levels to Watch: 1.255 Support and 1.274 Resistance

The GBPUSD currency pair experienced a strong bounce from the 1.255 area, with an upbeat halt at the 1.264 pivot, which consequently serves as the main resistance area for the bulls.

However, upon closer examination of the 1-hour chart, we can observe three bearish engulfing candle patterns signaling the pressure of bears near the pivot. The bearish scenario appears stronger, given that the overall outlook of the GBPUSD is bearish.

It is important to note that, as long as the 1.264 pivot holds, the market’s primary objective is to retest the 1.255 support level, followed by a potential further decline to the 1.248 level. This information is crucial for traders and investors who are closely monitoring the market’s movements and seeking to make informed decisions.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.265 pivot on GBPUSD, it would pave the way for a potential rise to the 1.274 resistance level.​

 

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Bitcoin Analysis: ETF Approved as Traders Celebrating

Bitcoin is trading around $27,300 after it broke the minor resistant at 26.734 after a US court has approved the first Bitcoin ETF, marking a major win for crypto investors. The SEC’s decision to deny Grayscale Investments’ Bitcoin ETF was overruled by the DC Court of Appeals. This allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without owning it, causing a surge in crypto token prices

Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a rise of about 5%, reaching the resistance level of $28,099, and currently the bears added pressure to correct the recent gains. Market analysts predict that Bitcoin will trade within a range of $25K to $28K in the upcoming sessions, unless the bulls manage to close above the $28,099 barrier. If this happens, the surge in Bitcoin’s value is expected to continue, with the first target being the psychological level of $30K.​

 

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Missed Data and Falling Dollar in Gold Analysis: How Gold Prices are Rising

Gold prices have been rising this week due to two key factors. Firstly, there was a miss in the US JOLTS job openings data, which measures the number of job openings in the US economy. Secondly, there was a miss in the US consumer confidence data, which measures how confident consumers are feeling about the economy. These two misses indicate that the US job market is slowing down, which is in line with the Federal Reserve's objectives. The Federal Reserve wants to cool down the US economy by raising interest rates. As a result of these misses, gold prices surged higher on Tuesday as yields and the dollar fell.

On Thursday, there will be another important data release that could impact gold prices: the PCE print. The PCE print measures inflation in the US economy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. If the PCE print comes in below market expectations, it could cause yields and the dollar to fall again, which would lift gold prices. The Core PCE print is expected to come in at 4.2%, slightly higher than the previous reading of 4.1% for June. The headline print is expected to come in at 3.3%, up from the previous reading of 3%. It's important to remember that the PCE inflation data is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, so they will be paying close attention to this data release.

Gold is currently testing the broken trend line, which is also near the 1,951 pivot. The bulls must break the pivot to push the price to higher levels such as 1,979 - 1,986. On the flip side, monitoring the price action and candlestick pattern in the pivot zone may provide decent opportunities to go short on XAUUSD.

The bearish candlestick patterns you want to look for are Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, and Dark Cloud Cover. These patterns can indicate a potential reversal in the market and provide traders with an opportunity to enter a short position on Gold. By carefully analyzing the price action and candlestick patterns in the pivot zone, traders can make informed decisions about their trades and potentially profit from market movements.​

 

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Crude Oil Analysis: Strong Rise on the Price

Today’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data was as expected, and this helped stock prices to rise as August came to an end. Even though interest rates won’t be lowered, the fact that they won’t be raised again this year has made people want to buy more stocks. Lower bond yields have also made stocks more attractive, and they are ending the month in a better position than they were a week ago.

However, there is a potential problem. Investors are feeling more positive about the global economy, which means they think demand for oil will increase. The price of oil has gone up over the past week, and this could lead to higher inflation later in the year. If prices go up and interest rates start to rise again, this could be bad news for the stock market.

The crude oil is currently testing the $84 barrier. The Weekly chart shows the Crude Oil is trading in a range area between the $84 resistant and the $66 support. This level has been tested four times this year and the bears could decline the price every time. The bulls must close above the $84 barrier to pave the road to $92 which is likely to be seen in the coming weeks based on the current fundamental.

On the other hand, the $77 price point serves as a minor support level for crude oil. In order to maintain a bullish outlook, it is crucial that this level holds. If the price forms a bearish engulfing or a shooting star candlestick pattern near the demand zone ($84), we can expect a decline. As such, it is highly recommended to closely monitor these levels and analyze technical data to make informed decisions.
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EURUSD Analysis: Price is Steady as Traders Awaits Important Data

At present, the EURUSD rate is holding steady, as the market eagerly awaits an important announcement about US job figures. However, this calm was disrupted on Thursday when the European currency experienced a dip, effectively reversing some of its gains from earlier in the week. This downturn was anticipated, given the significant news expected to be released on Friday.

In addition to this, the European currency was dealt another blow due to disappointing retail sales figures from Germany. These figures serve as a stark reminder of the ongoing concerns surrounding the trajectory of the European economy.

Despite these challenges, the European Central Bank continues to maintain a firm stance. This is largely due to persistently high consumer prices. The tough rhetoric from the bank in response to these inflationary pressures is playing a crucial role in bolstering the value of the European currency.

Given these circumstances, it seems prudent at this point to adopt a 'wait and see' approach. With an important announcement on the horizon, it's advisable to hold off on making any major decisions until more information becomes available.

The EURUSD currency pair is currently undergoing a critical test of the 1.083 pivot point. A close examination of the 4-hour chart reveals no significant candlestick patterns, indicating a lack of clear direction for the pair.

Adding to this uncertainty, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has flipped below its signal line, suggesting a bearish outlook for the EURUSD. However, for this bearish scenario to fully materialize, it is crucial for the bears to close below the pivot line. If this occurs, their next target would be the 1.073 support level, with the decline likely to continue within the bearish channel.

On the other hand, the bulls face a strong resistance at 1.0946 and the upper band of the declining channel. In order to invalidate the bearish scenario and shift momentum in their favor, they must first escape from the channel and close above the 1.0946 resistance level.

Traders and investors would do well to closely monitor developments and be prepared to act accordingly.​

 

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WTI Oil Prices Soar: Russia and Saudi Arabia Cut Production

WTI oil prices are rising due to falling crude oil inventories and production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, concerns about an economic slowdown in China may limit further gains. Oil traders are watching upcoming reports, including the Chinese Caixin Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI.

WTI is the US benchmark for crude oil prices. On Monday, it was trading around $85.2, close to its YTD high of $85.52. WTI prices are also supported by a significant drop in US crude oil stocks.

Russia agreed with OPEC+ to limit oil output, with details to be announced later this week. Russia is expected to cut its oil exports, while Saudi Arabia is expected to continue its voluntary oil cut. These developments helped WTI prices reach a YTD high on Friday.

However, concerns about an economic slowdown in China may limit further gains for WTI. Moody’s recently revised its 2024 GDP forecast for China downward. Oil traders are watching upcoming reports, including the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change data.

WTI Crude Oil recently broke through the $84 resistance level and is currently trading near $85.8. The RSI indicator is hovering near the overbought zone, suggesting a correction may be due. The $84 support area offers a reasonable entry point for buyers.

Overall, the outlook for WTI Crude Oil remains positive, but traders should remain cautious and keep an eye on key indicators and market developments.​

 

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GBPUSD Recovery Uncertain as UK Factory Activities Decline

The GBPUSD is trying to recover from 1.2600, but its recovery is uncertain as UK factory activities keep declining. Despite this, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates for the 15th time in a row this month. This has put pressure on UK firms, who have shifted their focus to stabilizing margins and reducing costs by cutting inventories and their workforce.

The GBPUSD pair is trying to make a significant comeback after a severe sell-off, which was caused by growing recession concerns. However, the recovery effort seems fragile as UK factory activities are being affected by the BoE’s higher interest rates.

In today's trading session, the GBPUSD currency pair is making a concerted effort to correct the losses it incurred on Friday. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading near a key resistance level and the pivot zone at 1.263. Given the prevailing market conditions, the outlook for this currency pair is a downtrend. Consequently, for the bears to maintain this bearish scenario, it's crucial that they keep the pair below the 1.263 pivot point.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.265 resistance level, it could potentially invalidate the current bearish scenario. In such a situation, we could see the GBPUSD surge towards the 1.27 resistance level, and possibly even extend towards 1.28.​