FOREX PRO Weekly November 26-30, 2012

[Sive Morten]

Thanks a million! Sive.
Another tiny question if possible; Is there a reason that you never mention the 23.3 fib level?
Looking at the dollar now, it seems like it stopped at the 23.3 fib level.
Just asking to learn.
sincerely
Mjunkyard

Well, that level is a sort of 0.88, but if deep retracement very often used in harmonic patterns, especially butterflies, 23.2 very rare applied. IT's not even suitable for AB-CD's. If I'll see that BC leg is just 23.2 - this AB-CD will be under question. There are no patterns with 23.2.
In general market could respect 23.2, but it's mostly useless for my trading style. Still it doesn't mean that it useless at all. I'm sure that somebody has trading style that can rely on 23.2 very often. It's a bit personal.

 

[sardinian]

euraud still bearish on weekly macd

euraud is still bearish ....there is not correlation....but...who knows?...end of the month is very important...
p.s. in the left side euraud, in right side eurusd

 

[mjunkyard]

Well, that level is a sort of 0.88, but if deep retracement very often used in harmonic patterns, especially butterflies, 23.2 very rare applied. IT's not even suitable for AB-CD's. If I'll see that BC leg is just 23.2 - this AB-CD will be under question. There are no patterns with 23.2.
In general market could respect 23.2, but it's mostly useless for my trading style. Still it doesn't mean that it useless at all. I'm sure that somebody has trading style that can rely on 23.2 very often. It's a bit personal.

Thanks a million again!
Mjunkyard

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Sive,

Maybe I'm wrong but I suppose there is engulfing pattern on daily chart. The target is around 1.2820, the same area where daily 25x5 DMA is located.
Thanks and Best Regards.
Rashidin

 

[mjunkyard]

Hi Dear Sive;
I hope it doesn't bother you that I'm asking all these questions.
If I may ask; Usually you teach us that the market rarely doesn't reach targets. In our case the 50% target of the perfect 4h DRPO was at 28.70. In the morning you said that it's worth it to start buying in at higher prices.
How did you know that this time it won't reach the exact target. And you were right!
sincerely
mjunkyard

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Dear Sive;
I hope it doesn't bother you that I'm asking all these questions.
If I may ask; Usually you teach us that the market rarely doesn't reach targets. In our case the 50% target of the perfect 4h DRPO was at 28.70. In the morning you said that it's worth it to start buying in at higher prices.
How did you know that this time it won't reach the exact target. And you were right!
sincerely
mjunkyard

Hi Mjunkyard,
Of cause I didn't know. You're overestimating my possibilities. That's just simple caution. We have to be rational. There are times when we have to be stubborn and patient, but there are times when we have to be flexible.
When you expect daily trade with nice potential and probability that B&B is, but know just an area where ti could start, and that area is just 15-20 pips, is it really important trying to catch absolute low? Surely not. This is just unequal exchange - skip daily trade on 100+ pips and add 5-10 pips at risk.

But don't apply what I'm just saying as a rule of thumb. This depends on particular situation. That is justified when you add to risk 10 pips with high probability trade, as B&B. In other circumstances with worse context, you can get just risk increasing without any advantages.

 

[mjunkyard]

Hi Mjunkyard,
Of cause I didn't know. You're overestimating my possibilities. That's just simple caution. We have to be rational. There are times when we have to be stubborn and patient, but there are times when we have to be flexible.
When you expect daily trade with nice potential and probability that B&B is, but know just an area where ti could start, and that area is just 15-20 pips, is it really important trying to catch absolute low? Surely not. This is just unequal exchange - skip daily trade on 100+ pips and add 5-10 pips at risk.

But don't apply what I'm just saying as a rule of thumb. This depends on particular situation. That is justified when you add to risk 10 pips with high probability trade, as B&B. In other circumstances with worse context, you can get just risk increasing without any advantages.

Thanks again.

 

[PaladinFX]

Leon Petrus, I feel your pain. I've lost thousands of dollars and pulled a lot of hair out of my head experiencing the same things you've described.

mjunkyard, I agree hedge funds can have an influence on the market.

However, the sad truth is the markets are rigged.

Yes, the market reacts positively to good news and negatively to bad news. But so what? It doesn't last.

Think of retail traders and hedge funds of having a total bankroll of $1. Now if the market goes up or down ten cents it can have a devastating affect.

Think of centralized banks and marketplaces of having a $100 bankroll. Is that ten cent swing relatively all that significant to them? The answer is, "No".

In fact they manipulate the price forcing stops then swoop down like vultures gobbling up whatever carcasses they can find.

Fundamental and technical analysis become almost meaningless when you step back and look at the big picture.

It reminds me of the old poker adage, "If you sit down at a poker table and don't see a sucker, guess what? You're it."

The best we can do as retail traders is hope to pick up a few crumbs. We're never going to get a slice of the pie. Our pockets aren't deep enough for that.

That's a nice post.

One has to adapt one's way of thinking.
I usually ponder 'How could the biggies shaft the largest number of retail traders for as much money as possible in the current market situation?' and then try to act accordingly.
It works surprisingly well, most of the time.


Cheers,
P.

 

[Billy Whiz]

Hi Sive, I am new to FPA and have just started following your analysis. There are many abreviations I do not recognise. I know there is extensive educational material in the FX Military School, can you direct me to where I might learn the abreviations so that I may read up on them.

 

[ernest02]

Impressed and would love to have better understanding of patterns & strategies

Hi Sive, I am new to FPA and have just started following your analysis. There are many abreviations I do not recognise. I know there is extensive educational material in the FX Military School, can you direct me to where I might learn the abreviations so that I may read up on them.

Sive, I am another one! I have followed your recommendations and strategies over the past weeks and have become very impressed. I also would like to understand all your patterns, strategies, etc. like e.g. B&B, DRPO, StopGrabber, 222, etc. better. Is there a place that we can study these things to have a more intelligent understanding of what you are talking of?