FOREX PRO Weekly, February 28 - March 4, 2011

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 01, March 2011

Good morning,
So, our bullish view has been confirmed by yesterday's market behavior.
Let's see, what we can trade today.
For Day traders:
Daily chart.
There is nothing really new for you, guys. All trend are bullish, so you do not have a context to enter short. You need a retracement to enter on the long Side. The nearest Target is 1.4033 as due ABC swing and daily Overbought level. Very suitable level to watch for is 1.37 - it includes weekly + monthly pivot points, 3/8 Fib Support. Also it's confirmed by some intraday targets, that makes an Agreement with this area.

For intraday traders
4-hour chart
Although, we can see that trend is bearish and nice bearish divergence with MACD , that public likes very much to trade - I think that context is bullish, because price action does not confirm trend shifting. Some confidence adds the fact that market stands just below the previous highs at 1.3856 and this is a great temptation for market-makers to trigger the stops just above this area. Still, if you're bearish - your target is 1.37 area.
hourly chart
If you're bullish - your target is 1.3870-1.39, because you clearly see bullish Dynamic pressure here and Butterfly "Sell" pattern is forming with the target around 1.3880 - also there are some other targets in there and weekly pivot resistance 1. But be carefull of W&R - take profits there...
Stop could be placed just below 1.3770. In this case market will destroy Butterfly.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Hi Sive-
I have couple of comments.
Dont you think that in 4H chart there is a DRepo or at least LAL?
Also, dont you think that 4H and 1H trend is bearish can be a good context to enter short?
Last, regarding the Butterfly sell which is already working and has not been yet negated a good reason to be short?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive-
I have couple of comments.
Dont you think that in 4H chart there is a DRepo or at least LAL?
Also, dont you think that 4H and 1H trend is bearish can be a good context to enter short?
Last, regarding the Butterfly sell which is already working and has not been yet negated a good reason to be short?

1. No, too deep first penetration for DRPO. We want to see shallow retracement during DRPO is forming;
2. Trend is only single tool in trading plan. It's important, but not always prevailing factor. Due to reasons that I've mentioned, I better will stay flat on intraday, then enter short just to trend direction. There is some more clear signals are needed;
3. Butterfly could fail. I prefer to enter short due daily butterfly, if market will show some clear "Sell" patterns on intraday time frame.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 02, March 2011

Good morning,
Although yesterday market has shown some attempt to move higher, now it turns to retracement.
Daily trend is bullish and remains bullish till 1.3708 for today's trading session
On daily time frame I point for myself 1.3690-1.37 area that includes weekly pivot at 1.37, monthly pivot at 1.3694 and 0.382 Fib support 1.3690. Also this level will be crucial for daily trend.

On 4-hour chart trend is bearish. We see that Butterfly Buy is forming with 1.27 target at 1.3671 - that is also confirm our daily area. Also - 4-hour oversold stands at the same level. So, how to trade all these stuff?

Day traders:
Wait when market will reach 1.3670-1.37 area then we can buy from support with stop at least below 1.3630. I expect that even we will wrong - market will bounce from this area after the first touch. This will allow us move s/l to b/e. Target - 1.4033 But be aware of W&R after reaching 1.39 area. If it will appear - exit from Long possitions.

Intraday traders
Your context is bearish, so now you have no reason to Buy. If you hold shorts - think about exit around 1.3670-1.37 area.

 

[rasto007]

stop grabber on daily GBPUSD

Hello Sive,

what do you think about the stop grabber on daily GBP USD? There was a butterfly or crab on daily that failed while forming a stopgrabber. Where would you put a SL?

Rasto

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive,

what do you think about the stop grabber on daily GBP USD? There was a butterfly or crab on daily that failed while forming a stopgrabber. Where would you put a SL?

Rasto

Hi Rasto - there is no any Stop Grabber. Day close at 1.6263, MACDP=1.6257
here is a futures chart. I've warned you - be carefull with the bootleg Software and market data. Here, btw you can assure how dangerous to use it

See - market has closed above the MACDP. But even it will be there - in this conditions I will wait for W&R, due to bullish dynamic pressure...

S/L should be placed depending on enter. If you use lower time frame - then you may use Bushes or Minesweeper A for enter intraday from SG bar.
If you use only daily charts - then stop should be placed above the SG's high.

 

[Klewe]

Hi Rasto - there is no any Stop Grabber. Day close at 1.6263, MACDP=1.6257
here is a futures chart. I've warned you - be carefull with the bootleg Software and market data. Here, btw you can assure how dangerous to use it

See - market has closed above the MACDP. But even it will be there - in this conditions I will wait for W&R, due to bullish dynamic pressure...

S/L should be placed depending on enter. If you use lower time frame - then you may use Bushes or Minesweeper A for enter intraday from SG bar.
If you use only daily charts - then stop should be placed above the SG's high.

Hello Sive, Hi Rasto,

what is Bushes and Minesweeper A?

Cheers

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive, Hi Rasto,

what is Bushes and Minesweeper A?

Cheers

Hi, Rasto
This is DiNapoli entrance technics

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 03, March 2011

Hello, everybody

Yesterday market has moved higher and taken out previous highs. I think that current price action is not a W&R, because market just coling above it and does not return back.
At the same time, market hit two daily targets - 1.618 of Butterfly and weekly pivot resistance - both stand at 1.3878. Also, it has reached 2 intraday targets - most recent AB-CD and initial AB-CD 1.27 expansion target.
The next possible upside target is 1.40-1.4033

From daily time frame perspectives, I think that 1.37 area is very good for attempt to enter long. But market neither Overbought nor oversold currently - It just has reached some resistance, so, it may just not show retracement right to 1.37... Here the choice is up to you - to wait or not to wait and enter on some intraday retracement. And here are my thoughts about it.

4-hour.
Trend is bullish and it will remain bullish till 1.3812-1.3830 area. Market has hit some targets and coiling in tight range.

1-hour
Although trend turns bearish - price action does not support it. This is bullish sign. 1.3830 - hourly K-support area 1.3800 - 5/8 Fib support.

I think, that we can try enter long from 1.3830 with s/l below 1.3790. If we will wrong - we don't risk much. Besides, if market will move below 1.38 - 4-hour trend will shift bearish and our intraday bullish context will be vanished.
At the same time -risk/reward is solid.
But again - currently I do not see any solid patterns that could allow to shift the probability in our favor. All that we can do now is to trade (or not to trade) trend.

 

[Klewe]

Hi, Rasto
This is DiNapoli entrance technics

Ah, found it in the DiNapoli book, thanks!