ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The U.S. economy has been dragged down by rising tensions between China and the United States. Last week, U.S. durable goods orders fell negative 2.1 percent in April from a positive 2.6% the previous month. Any currencies against USD and Precious metal price rose. Dow limited gains last week.

The British prime minister steps down; the market is waiting for a new prime minister. British P.M. Theresa may have resigned as Britain's prime minister, giving her a chance to change the terms of the Brexit negotiations. Positive for British pound in short but not for long.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
US and UK markets are closed for a holiday
Precious metals, U.S. crude oil and FX market were closed early
09:30 annual profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in April
11:00 Bank of Japan governor speaks at the T20 summit
13:00 Japan March leading indicator
22:00 Canada National economic confidence index

Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1185/1.1165 support
1.1220/1.1240 resistance
A drop in U.S. durable goods orders in April, coupled with earlier data showing a decline in U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and retail sales, pointed to a slowdown in the economy. The dollar fell, and the euro rebounded from its lows. Technical reference resistance of 1.1220 and 1.1240, if the market reflects ahead of time the expected drop in U.S. first-quarter real GDP revisions on Thursday, the dollar will continue to fall, bullish the euro. Of course, important data out of the eurozone and Germany in a few weeks should be noted. Support levels moved to 1.1185 and 1.1165. Short term is expected to maintain the 1.1200 level, look at the 1.1240 targets.

GBPUSD
1.2740/1.2755 resistance
1.2670/1.2655 support
The dollar fell on weak U.S. economic data. Besides, British prime minister Theresa May announced her resignation and remained in office until June 7. Progress on Brexit is expected to change, with the pound rebounding. Of course, the next prime minister is yet to be confirmed, and his successor will be crucial to Brexit policy. Technically, the important reference resistance level of the GBPUSD rose to 1.2755. If the resistance level did not break, the trend continues to go down, try 1.2655 support level.

AUDUSD
0.6940/0.6960 resistance
0.6905/0.6880 support
U.S. economic data disappointed, the dollar fell, indirectly bullish Australian dollar. The Australian dollar's rally widened to 0.69 percent after U.S. President Donald trump's bullish comments cooled a trade war between China and the United States following a stock market decline. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD trend. The Australian dollar temporarily rose, the rise is expected to continue, on the test 0.6940 and 0.6960 resistance. If the US and China trade talks are confirmed in the short term, there will be reasons to support the continued rise of the Australian dollar. Almost, the New Zealand dollar has the same purpose of waiting for a rebound. Tomorrow morning, the Australian consumer confidence index is watching.

USDJPY
109.70/109.90 resistance
109.35/109.15 support
The dollar fell against the yen after the Dow Jones industrial average fell after U.S. durable goods fell sharply in April. Fortunately, the US President made a speech to cool down the US and China trade war, which led to the rise of Dow index and Nikkei index and the recovery of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Today, though, the US and UK holidays, failed to refer to the relevant stock market trends. But look to Asian stocks; The Nikkei, for example, looks for a dollar-yen road map.

USDCAD
1.3480/1.3505 resistance
1.3405/1.3380 support
The Canadian dollar rose after crude lost $60 to $57. Technical trend, dollar resistance against the Canadian dollar at $1.3505, support at $1.3405. On Wednesday, Canada raised interest rates in anticipation of a rise in the Canadian dollar. Short term advice to keep an eye on crude oil prices, if crude oil prices continue to fall, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar or break above 1.3505.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
58.40/57.85 support
59.05/60.05 resistance
Crude oil prices fell last week as U.S. crude inventories for API and ElA rose. Besides, news that Russia and other non-OPEC members may oppose production cuts raises the prospect of an oversupply of crude oil, hurting prices. But the market temporarily digests the news, crude oil prices stopped rising. Technically, look for initial resistance at $60, with support below $58.40 and support at $57.85. Watch as U.S. API and ElA crude inventories are released on Wednesday. Note: USOIL future trading is closed early for the UK and US holidays.

XAUUSD 1283/1280 support
1293/1296 resistance
The Dow Jones industrial average fell after U.S. economic data fell short of expectations and trade talks between China and the United States did not reopen soon. Moreover, the Fed has no interest rate hikes. A variety of factors have boosted gold prices. Technically, refer to the May 13 to 21 bounce. Support bits for 1283 and 1280 are tentative. Upward target resistance levels between 1293 and 1296. Note: precious metals trading is closed early for the UK and US holidays.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25705/25855 resistance
25415/25355 support
U.S. holidays, no U.S. data, Dow futures closed early today. In this case, the Dow was little changed. Investors should pay attention to any related information US and China economic and trade, chase the trend of Dow futures. Current recommendations focus on the resistance at 25705 and 25855. Lower support bit targets 25415 and 25355.

BTCUSD:
8950 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, investors are losing confidence in trading with traditional investments instruments. Moreover, Fed no intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and reach $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
US President Trump was in Japan for talks on a trade deal. After the meeting he said they had reached an agreement, but gave no details. Later, US President Trump said publicly that The US trade department was not ready for trade talks with China. A week later, Trump changed his attitude after the visit Japan, China and US trade talks uncertainty, increasing market risks and affecting investment sentiment.
Britain prime minister has resigned, waiting the formal a new leader. Markets expect the next British prime minister as having a chance to change on Brexit. But more than half of those who want to run for prime minister are in favour of a hard brexit. Thus it can be seen that the UK finally moves towards a no-deal Brexit, and the GBP weakens. In addition, various risks are heating up, expected that the downside risks to the stock market, money flows into gold and yen, and crude oil price rise may be limited to $60 to $61 resistance. Commodity currencies maybe fall.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
14:00 German Gfk consumer confidence index (June)
14:00 Swiss trade account (April)
17:00 Eurozone sentiment index and consumer confidence index (May)
22:00 US consumer confidence index (May)
22:30 the Dallas Fed business activity index (May)

Today suggestion :
EURUSD
1.1175/1.1155 support
1.1220/1.1240 resistance
With the European elections under way and conservatives still holding a majority in parliament, the euro's stability was assured. Technical reference resistance continues at 1.1220 and 1.1240, with support at 1.1175 and 1.1155. If the market gives an early indication of a revised forecast for U.S. first-quarter real GDP on Thursday, a further drop in the dollar could be positive for the euro. Keep an eye out for German and eurozone consumer confidence data and euro zone economic and industrial sentiment data for May. The euro is expected to return above the 1.1200 level in the near term, looking at the 1.1240 target.

GBPUSD
1.2715/1.2740 resistance
1.2635/1.2605 support
The British prime minister announced resignation and remained in office until June 7 to await his successor. But the next prime minister, who is likely to back a hard brexit, has a chance to hit sterling hard. As the risk of a hard Brexit increasingly, some financial institutions are suggesting the pound could fall as low as 1.2 or even try 1.1. Technically, the GBPUSD reference resistance level of 1.2740. Trend continues to go down, try below 1.2635 or 1.2605 support.

AUDUSD
0.6930/0.6945 resistance
0.6900/0.6880 support
The trade war between China and the United States is still not over, the U.S. President once again expressed negative comments, the rise of the Australian dollar was blocked, but temporarily maintained the level of 0.69. Technically, there are still downside risks to the aussie trend. If the resumption of China-US trade talks is confirmed in the short term, there will be reasons to support the continued rise of the Australian dollar. Almost, the New Zealand dollar has the same reason to wait for a rebound. However, at present, there is no progress in the overall China and US trade talks. Please pay attention to the downside risks of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, and the AUDUSD may test the support of 0.6880.

USDJPY
109.70/109.90 resistance
109.35/109.15 support
Yesterday, the United States and the United States holiday, the global stock market reflect little, the dollar and the yen in a tight range. At present, the speech of the US President Trump, affected investment sentiment, the Dow and Nikkei fluctuate repeatedly and the dollar fluctuates against the yen. Invest in the dollar against the yen, the recommended reference to the Dow and Nikkei index, looking for a dollar-yen trend roadmap.

USDCAD
1.3470/1.3485 resistance
1.3425/1.3405 support
Crude oil prices rebounded to near $59, with the Canadian dollar following. The bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady when the monetary decision meeting tomorrow. Technical focus , the dollar resistance against the Canadian dollar at $1.3485, support at $1.3405.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
58.40/57.85 support
59.05/59.75 resistance
Crude oil prices fell last week as U.S. crude inventories for API and ElA rose. The market is waiting to see tomorrow, release of the latest crude inventories. Technically, refer to initial resistance levels of $59.05 and $59.75, and support levels below $58.40 and $57.85. Crude oil prices will fall if U.S. API and ElA crude inventories increase, respectively. The more inventories rise, the more oil prices fall. And vice versa!

XAUUSD
1282/1280 support
1290/1292 resistance
The US economy is expected to slow and the Fed is expected to need to cut interest rates. Trade talks between China and the United States has not back to table, instability in the Middle East has seen the Dow Jones industrial average fall and Britain face increased risks of a hard Brexit. When stock markets reopened after the holidays in U.K. and US, markets had a chance to add up, money flow into gold and pushing up its price. Technically, 1282 and 1280 are supported. Upward target resistance 1290 and 1292.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25705/25855 resistance
25415/25355 support
Yesterday, the U.S. holiday, no U.S. data, Dow futures closed early, the Dow little volatility. Investors continue to pay attention to information related to China and US economy and trade, especially comments from both sides, and grasp the trend of Dow futures. Still, the success of the US-Japan trade talks is expected to be a positive for stocks when the U.S. President visits Japan. But the most crucial trade talks between China and the United States remain stalled, with limited room for stocks to rise. Current recommendations focus on resistance at 25705 and 25855. Lower support targets at 25415 and 25355.

BTCUSD:
8950 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, US data shown slow down. Expected Fed will not intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

After the release of US real GDP in the first quarter, the yields on Treasury bills and bonds returned to normal levels, improving the inversion of yields, reflecting an improvement in investor sentiment. The US statistics department noted that the real GDP in the first quarter keeping 3.1%, driven by consumption and exports. Most investor believe that the trade tensions between China and the United States continue. China and the United States have increased import tariffs on each other. Consumers and exporters have avoided imposing tariffs on each other. Market worried that global growth will slow and that a U.S. trade war with China could hurt U.S. economic prospects. Amid uncertainty over the investment outlook, US President Donald Trump yesterday gave a talk to stop the stock market dropped. Trump simply said that trade talks with China were progressing well but did nothing to address investor concerns. Investors are waiting for officials or leaders of the two countries formally negotiate.

Today, the market focus on the German CPI for May and the Canadian GDP for March. In the dollar, attention was paid to the core PCE price index in April and the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May.

Expectations are that Germany CPI for May will be lower than previous readings and that the euro will be lower before the release. Canada GDP for March is expected to rise, ahead of the release of the forecast. However, the market expects the US core PCE price index to rise in April, adding to the dollar's gains. However, the final reading of the university of Michigan consumer confidence index for May may be lower than the previous reading, which may affect the dollar's strength.

[Important financial data and events concerned]
14:30 Swiss Real retail sales rate for April
16:30 Bank of England mortgage lending permit in April
20:00 Germany CPI monthly preliminary data for May
20:30 Canada GDP in March
20:30 US personal expenditure in April
20:30 US the core PCE price index in April
21:45 US Chicago PMI in May
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for May

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1120/1.1105 support
1.1150/1.1165 resistance
EURUSD have been in negative recently as Italy's fiscal deficit exceeds EU rules, undermining Italian investment confidence and confidence in the euro. In addition, U.S. economic growth remains strong, weighing on the euro, while EURUSD fell. But the dollar is likely to fall after first-quarter revisions to U.S. real GDP and U.S. economic data release today. Markets are starting to look ahead to the U.S. jobs report next week and expect the dollar's rise to stall. Technically, refer to low position 1.1105 on May 23. Calculate the Fibonacci wave and estimate the resistance of 1.1150 and 1.1165.

GBPUSD
1.2640/1.2660 resistance
1.2605/1.2585 support
British parliament has voted to elect its next prime minister and to pass its fourth Brexit bill. It is believed that the risks of a hard Brexit remain high. Some financial institutions have pointed out that the pound may fall to 1.20, or even try 1.10. On the contrary, risk is reduced and the pound is expected to try 1.27 to 1.28. Technically, pound reference resistance levels of 1.2640 and 1.2660. Trend continues to downward, estimates under 1.2605 and 1.2585 support levels. The proposal is to wait for the result of the vote, and to start the direction of the pound.

AUDUSD
0.6930/0.6945 resistance
0.6900/0.6880 support
The trade war between China and the United States has not subsided, affecting Australia's economic outlook worries, the rebound of AUDUSD blocked. U.S. economic growth remained strong, the U.S. dollar strengthened and the Australian dollar fell to 0.69. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD. Today's U.S. economic data, especially the final reading of the university of Michigan consumer confidence index for May and any news about the trade talks between China and the United States, will help judge the trend of changes in AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

USDJPY
109.55/109.75 resistance
109.15/108.85 support
Japanese retail sales slowed in April, the Nikkei stock and USDJPY fell, USDJPY tried to close to a three-month low. With trade tensions between China and the US, it is hard to see the dollar getting much of a boost USDJPY as equity markets continue to fall. The US released a number of important reference economic data today, suggest the focus on all economic data performance. Estimated that the Dow and the Nikkei index volatility, the USDJPY also volatility, and follow the direction of the Dow, catch up the trend of the USDJPY.

USDCAD
1.3545/1.3565 resistance
1.3485/1.3465 support
After the Bank of Canada remains the interest rates, the central bank expressed concern about the future economic outlook, investment sentiment cautious. Canada was widening the current account deficit in the first quarter and falling crude oil futures prices pushed the Canadian dollar lower, USDCAD back to 1.3545. But we got good news for the Canadian dollar. The preliminary agreement on a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada will help stabilize Canadian investment confidence. In addition, expected the U.S. economy is weaker today, if the U.S. dollar falls, the USDCAD may adjust to 1.3485 or below.

Us crude futures USOIL
57.85/58.40 resistance
55.85/54.85 support
The trade war between China and the United States hit investment and production confidence, and the demand for crude oil decreased. The crude oil price changed from rising to falling after the us API and EIA crude oil inventory data. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to test resistance at $59.75 after testing resistance at $59.05. But crude oil demand has fallen in anticipation of a global economic slowdown. Estimated crude oil prices failed to break through resistance, below 58.40 and $57.85 support level. It is currently technically testing at $54.85, which is 50% of the adjusted wave.

XAUUSD
1295/1297 resistance
1285/1283 support
The trade war between China and the United States is tense. The market and this analysis pointed out earlier that the trade war between China and the United States is expected to make the United States economic recession. Besides, the U.S. real GDP in the first quarter held up expectations, and the Fed reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, boosting gold prices. What we're seeing now is that hedge funds are starting to flow into the gold market, and the price of gold is rising dramatically. Short-term references are recommended for 1285 and 1283 support, resistance 1295 and 1297. Gold prices rise if the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average or global stocks fall further. On the contrary, the price of gold fell.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25215/25320 resistance
24940/24850 support
The United States reported revised first-quarter real GDP figures that were only in line with market expectations. In line with expectations, the dow had risen. For now, whether the dow can rise further depends on when trade talks between China and the us resume. The lack of good news will prevent the stock market from rising. Currently, it is expected that the increased downward pressure on the stock market will force the us to return to the negotiating table, which is good for the stock market. Current resistance recommendations are 25215 and 25320. Support assuming 24940 and 24850 below.

BTCUSD:
8950 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed will not be intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

China has issued a trade negotiation between the United States and China white paper, pointing out China's position on trade wars and trade negotiations with the United States. It is believed that the talks between China and the U.S. have reached a deadlock, and China's position is firm. If the U.S. President and the Commerce Department do not tone down their tough stance, it will be difficult to resolve the impasse before the G20 meeting at the end of June, improving the mood for investment and expectations of an economic slowdown. Besides, the market is watching the release of the U.S. employment report for May this week, ADP private market employment change and non-farm payrolls for May, as well as the unemployment rate and the average hourly wage. The US Non-farm payrolls in May are expected to fall to 190,000, the unemployment rate to 3.7 per cent and average hourly wages to rise just 0.1 per cent, according to market estimates. The Fed could cut interest rates in September if U.S. employment change slows in anticipation of a gloomy economic outlook. Investors may reduce their holdings of the dollar and dollar assets ahead of the U.S. jobs data, giving European currencies and commodity prices a chance to rise.

Focus today, Germany, Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI for May, which would be positive for European currencies and sterling if they recorded growth. Besides, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in May. If the data slow down, the dollar will fall further. Conversely, the dollar rebounded.

[Important financial data and events concerned]
09:45 China Caixin manufacturing PMI for May
14:30 Swiss CPI for May
15:50 French manufacturing PMI for May
15:55 German manufacturing PMI for May
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for May
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for May
21:45 US Markit manufacturing PMI for May
22:00 US construction expenditure in April
22:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for May

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1120/1.1105 support
1.1150/1.1165 resistance
The revised U.S. first-quarter real GDP hit estimate at 3.1%, while the Michigan consumer confidence index final fell, the dollar fell, and EURUSD rebounded. Markets are starting to look ahead to this week's U.S. jobs report this week, predicting the dollar's rise was limited. Besides, keep an eye on the manufacturing index today. Technically, 1.1185 and 1.1200 are estimated as the first target resistance, and 1.1160 as the support level.

GBPUSD
1.2660/1.2680 resistance
1.2605/1.2585 support
US President Donald Trump is on a state visit to the UK this week before the UK parliament voted on the EU bill. It is believed that the risk of a hard Brexit remains high, and the US President's comments also affect the UK's political and economic outlook. Today, the market expected a slowdown in the UK manufacturing PMI for May was also negative today. Technically, GBPUSD significant resistance remains at 1.27, while short-term GBPUSD resistance at 1.2660 and 1.2680. If the breakthrough fails, the trend will continue to decline, and the estimate is to try the support level of 1.2605 and 1.2585.

AUDUSD
0.6960/0.6980 resistance
0.6925/0.6905 support
The ongoing trade war between China and the United States has been weighing on Australia's economic outlook. Recently, the US government reported that the originally intended to impose additional tariffs on Australian imports, but finally cancelled the ideas. The news got AUDUSD boost. However, the Australian dollar's rise will be held back ahead RBA cut-rate tomorrow, which is expected to be 0.25 per cent. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD. Expected, 0.6960 and 0.6980 resistance, 0.6925 and 0.6905 support. Under the expectation of interest rate cut by the reserve bank of Australia, AUDUSD has a chance to try 0.6905 or 0.6885 support.

USDJPY
108.55/108.75 resistance
108.05/107.85 support
U.S. and Japanese stock markets continued to fall with trade tensions between the United States and China, US Dow and Japan Nikkei index short-term volatility, USDJPY also volatility, and follow the direction of the Dow, judge the trend of USDJPY. Short term focus 108.05 and 107.85 support. If the Nikkei and Dow all up, watch for dollar resistance to 108.55 and 108.75.

USDCAD
1.3525/1.3545 resistance
1.3485/1.3465 support
An agreement on a US-Canada trade deal could help stabilise Canada's investment economy and confidence, potentially limiting the decline of the Canadian dollar. Today, the market is looking ahead to a weak U.S. jobs report this week if the U.S. manufacturing PMI comes in lower than expected in May, and believes the USDCAD could adjust to 1.3485 or below and 1.3545 resistance.

Us crude futures USOIL
53.85/54.40 resistance
51.85/50.85 support
The trade war between China and the United States has hit investment and production sentiment, and the United States has imposed tariffs on imports from Mexico. As a result, the global trade war is deadlocked. Technically, crude oil futures prices broke through multiple support levels. Without a rebound, breaking through a resistance of 53.85 and 54.40, crude oil price trend downward target to $50.

XAUUSD
1315/1320 resistance
1305/1309 support
The trade war between China and the United States is tense and is expected to depress the U.S. economy. U.S. real GDP in the first quarter was just hit as expected, but the manufacturing PMI In May, the labour market is likely to slow in May, Treasury prices are expected to fall, and the federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September. Several positive factors in the gold price, gold prices rise. As this analysis pointed out last week, the market hedge funds began to flow into the gold market, the price of gold rose sharply. Gold prices could rise if the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average or global stocks fall further. On the contrary, gold prices downward adjustment.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
24745/24825 resistance
24540/24350 support
The US President said the China and US trade talks had made progress, but China's comments and white paper on the talks revealed China's position, which clearly shows that the trade war between China and us is still heating up. Besides, weak U.S. jobs data for May is expected to weigh against U.S. stocks. The lack of good news at the moment will hamper the market's upside. At present, the stock market is estimated to increase downward. Otherwise, any positive comments that could boost the stock market's rebound. It is currently recommended to focus on lower support 24540 and 24350, resistance 24745 and 24825.

BTCUSD:
9050 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed will not be intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price support at $8550 and 8309, probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

U.S. and Mexico agreement risk easing, risk sentiment cooled, the dollar to rise. Gold prices fell, European currencies and commodity currencies adjusted. But fears of a global economic slowdown were widely, with crude oil prices falling more than 1% and US crude oil prices closing below $54. The market is focused on US API stocks tomorrow, which will have an impact on crude oil prices.

UK manufacturing and industrial output fell yesterday, its GDP contracted in the three months to April, and today's widely expected rise unemployment rate and jobless claims in May, weighed against GBPUSD. It also focused on the Eurozone investor sentiment index in June and the U.S. PPI for May. If the U.S. PPI falls in May, the dollar fall. European currencies, commodity currencies and gold prices could benefit, indirectly bullish. In addition, the tension between China and the United States may once again lead to a drop in investment sentiment. Keep wait and see any negative news will affect global stock markets and boost gold prices.



[Important financial data and events]

16:30 UK unemployment and jobless claims in May

16:30 Eurozone Sentix sentiment index for June

20:30 US PPI monthly rate in May

24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook

The next day at 04:30 U.S. API crude inventories



Today suggestion :



EURUSD

1.1320/1.1340 resistance

1.1290/1.1270 support

The European central bank released the central bank would consider cutting interest rates if the economy slowdown, limit the euro uptrend. Today, the market focus was on the Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index in June, as well as the UK unemployment and jobless claims figures in May. Markets are expecting the data to be negative for the euro, which is believed to be holding back gains ahead of the release. In addition, the U.S. monthly PPI rate for May. If U.S. PPI data for May is in line with market expectations of a fall, the euro will continue to adjust, with short-term support at 1.1290 and 1.1270 key support levels. Technically, the euro is at an important resistance level of $1.1340. If there is no break in resistance, remain concerned about the downward trend of the EURUSD.



GBPUSD

1.2705/1.2730 resistance

1.2670/1.2645 support

UK manufacturing and industrial output fell and GDP slowed in April yesterday. Expectations of higher unemployment and jobless claims in May weighed against GBPUSD. In addition, one of the nominees for Britain's next prime minister, Johnson, is a strong favourite. His call for a hard brexit without a deal could stir investor sentiment against sterling. Current estimates, bearish trend and limit the rise in GBPUSD. Technically, the first GBPUSD support level is 1.2670, and the key support level is 1.2645. Short-term resistance at 1.2705 and key resistance at 1.2730. The EUR is strong against GBP, which is expected to remain bullish EURGBP to testing 0.90.



AUDUSD

0.6970/0.6985 resistance

0.6945/0.6930 support

After the reserve bank of Australia cut interest rates, the AUDUSD rise was limited to 0.70 resistance. The trade war between China and the United States has hampered expectations of a slowdown in China's economy and Australia's resource exports, bearish the Australian dollar. If future us economic data shows weakness again and the US dollar falls, the AUDUSD has the opportunity to rise. But estimated AUDUSD into adjustment time in short term trading. Technically, focus on 0.6970 and 0.6985 resistance. At present, the AUDUSD adjustment, the reference support 0.6945 and 0.6930.



USDJPY

108.70/108.85 resistance

108.00/107.80 support

The Dow and Nikkei rose as the fed cut interest rate expectations and the U.S. and Mexico deal initially eased risks. The dollar traded at 108.55 yen, its first high against 108.71 resistance. However, the trade war between China and the United States has led to renewed disputes between the two countries. If the Dow falls in the United States, the dollar may try 108.00 or 107.80 support levels against the yen, depending on the depth of the fall. Technically, USDJPY may hit a barrier before 109 resistance, careful reversal. Keep an eye on how the U.S. Dow and Nikkei affect the dollar-yen trend.



USDCAD

1.3240/1.3225 support

1.3345/1.3365 resistance

Fed officials said the rate cut, to boost economic confidence, crude oil futures prices reversed, once rose to the level of 54 dollars, indirectly to bullish Canadian dollars. But the U.S. dollar stalled at 1.3250 against the Canadian dollar as crude oil prices stopped further go up. The U.S. API and EIA crude oil stocks will be released tomorrow. It is recommended to keep an eye on the crude oil price trend. If crude oil price continues to rise to $55 - $56, bullish the Canadian dollar.



Us crude futures

55.35/55.85 resistance

52.75/51.95 support

Fed officials cut interest rates, lifted economic and investment sentiment, stabilized oil prices and boosted oil prices. The U.S. API and EIA crude oil stocks will be released tomorrow. It is recommended to pay attention to the volume results and note the large increase in inventories. In general, the US President is happy to accept a fall in the price of oil, and if he expresses his opinion, it may also affect the price drop. Technically, refer to the 55.85 resistance and 51.95 support ranges.



XAUUSD

1332/1334 resistance

1326/1324 support

Fed officials have cut interest rates, and weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data have boosted gold prices. But the interest rate cut, after the positive stock market, again lifted the Dow, led the Dow rebound, gold price adjustment. A decline in the Dow could push gold prices higher as the trade war between China and the U.S. continues to heat up and the outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain. Watch for significant resistance at $1336 and $1340. Short-term support at $1326 and $1324.



U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26185/26255 resistance

25855/25735 support

The Dow future rose as the federal reserve cut interest rates and the U.S. and Mexico agreement showed signs of easing, raising the sentiment for investment. Positive comments from the Fed, though, could boost a rebound in U.S. stocks. However, the continued trade war between China and the United States has affected the economic outlook, and corporate profits are expected to decline, which is bearish for the stock market finally. It is recommended to note a reversal with current reference resistance at 26185 and 26255 and short-term support at 25855 and 25735.



BTCUSD:

8200 / 8450 resistance

7700 / 7450 support

Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, probably increasingthe bitcoin demand. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.



Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

Last week, the U.S. API crude oil stocks increased, bearish crude oil prices. With EIA crude oil stocks also expected to rise today, crude oil prices have a chance to test the $51 level.

US President Trump has said publicly that if China fails to reach the trade deal demanded by the US government, it will choose to intensify its trade war without any agreement. And Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders at a G20 meeting end of this month. But whether the both can reach an agreement will be seen. Based on the current attitude of both sides, the market risk assessment, the dollar and the China yuan momentum is weak, the risk of flow into safe-haven assets. For example, gold, silver and yen. Equity assets may be left to other markets, in anticipation of negative Dow and global stock markets.

Today is the most noteworthy, the US CPI monthly rate in May. If U.S. inflation slows, as expected, to 0.1 percent, bearish dollar. Finally, if data in line with or above expectations could reverse the dollar's decline. Next the market will wait and see the U.S. stocks tonight and German and Eurozone data tomorrow.

[Important financial data and events]
09:30 China CPI annual rate in May
16:15 ECB President Mario Draghi attend Euro group meeting
20:30 US CPI monthly rate in May
22:30 US EIA crude oil stocks for the week ending June 7

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1345/1.1360 resistance
1.1305/1.1290 support
The Eurozone Sentix sentiment index fell in June, while the U.S. PPl was flat in May. Yesterday the dollar had risen, the EURUSD lower, holding 1.1290 support. The dollar weakened from yesterday, because markets expected the US CPI to fall to 0.1 per cent in May. Believe dollar weakness, will continue to the data released. Whether EURUSD can challenge the 1.1360 resistance depends on the performance of US CPI result today and Eurozone economic data tomorrow. Technically, the EURUSD important resistance 1.1345 and 1.1360. If no break the resistance, it will focus on the downward of the EURUSD.

GBPUSD
1.2745/1.2760 resistance
1.2685/1.2670 support
One of the nominees for Britain's next prime minister is Johnson. He advocated a hard brexit without a deal, which touched investor sentiment and bearish on pound. Current estimates, bearish trend and limit the rise in pound. Technically, pay attention to the first support position 1.2685 and the important support position 1.2670. Resistance level 1.2745 and key resistance 1.2760. If the euro remains strong and the pound falls, expect the euro to keep rising against the pound, testing the 0.90 level. The key support levels of 0.8875 and 0.8840 will be tested if the euro adjusts against sterling in the short term.

AUDUSD
0.6970/0.6985 resistance
0.6945/0.6930 support
After the RBA cut interest rates, the Australian dollar will limit its rise against the U.S. dollar to 0.70 resistance. In addition, tensions over the trade war between the United States and China are hampering China's economy and Australia's resource exports, hurting the Australian dollar. If U.S. economic data shows weakness again and the U.S. dollar falls, the Australian dollar has a chance to rise against the U.S. dollar. The Australian dollar is expected to gain indirectly from a weaker than expected 0.1 percent rise in US CPI today. Technically, focus on short term AUDUSD 0.6970 and 0.6985 resistance. Reference support 0.6945 and 0.6930.

USDJPY
108.60/108.75 resistance
108.25/108.10 support
US crude stocks have risen, US President comments have undermined progress in trade talks and hurt investment confidence. The Dow and Nikkei fell and the dollar fell again against the yen after a 108.71 resistance failed. It is believed that the Dow future fell after the release of the expected fall in US CPI and the trade war between China and the US continued to dispute. Depending on the depth of the losses in the Dow and Nikkei, the USDJPY could test support at 108.00 or 107.80, respectively. Technically, USDJPY may hit a barrier before 109 resistance, careful reversal. Keep an eye on how the U.S. Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend.

USDCAD
1.3270/1.3250 support
1.3315/1.3330 resistance
Federal reserve officials said the rate cut, crude oil futures prices once rose to 54 dollars level, indirectly bullish the Canadian dollars. But crude oil prices fell as U.S. API crude stocks rose and EIA crude stocks were expected to rise. Against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar lost 1.3250 and recovered 1.3305. If the price of crude oil continues to fall, it will continue to bearish the Canadian dollar.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
53.30/54.00 resistance
52.15/51.65 support
Crude oil futures fell as U.S. API inventories rose to 4.85 million barrels. In general, oil inventories have risen sharply, bearish crude futures prices. And the US President welcome to lower oil prices, which could be further affected crude oil price by his comments. Crude oil prices were weighed down by weak U.S. data today after the release of US CPI. Technically, refer to 53.30 and 54.00 resistance. Crude oil prices fell the previous support level of 52.85, further down 52.15 and 51.65. Significant support at $51.20.

XAUUSD
1334/1338 resistance
1325/1321 support
Fed officials have cut interest rates, lifting the stock market, lifting the Dow future, leading to a correction in gold prices. The trade war between China and the United States continues to heat up recently, and the outlook for the U.S. economy is uncertain. Dow fall, it could push gold prices higher Keep an eye on resistance level 1338. Short-term support at $1325 and $1321.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26185/26255 resistance
25960/25785 support
The Dow future rose after the federal reserve rate-cutting comments, which had boosted investment sentiment. Positive comments from the Fed, though, could boost a rebound in U.S. Dow. However, the continued trade war between China and the United States has affected the economic outlook, and corporate profits are expected to decline, which is bad news for the stock market. Today, the United States released the quarter adjusted CPI monthly rate for May, the market is expected to fall. As advice yesterday, it was to watch for a reversal in the short term and now watch the data to see where the Dow goes next.

BTCUSD:
8200 / 8450 resistance
7700 / 7450 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, probably increasingthe bitcoin demand. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
Yesterday the US API and EIA crude oil inventories recorded an increase, the increase in the number of crude oil inventories, bearish crude oil prices. As this analysis showed yesterday, crude oil prices would test $51, now as low as $50.60. The impact of the continued inability of the United States and China to reach a trade agreement and intensify the trade war, as demand for crude falls. Moreover, seasonal factors are also important, and generally in the second and third quarters of production capacity and demand for crude oil reduced, affecting the oil price rise room. The above factors affect, the market sentiment weakened, the U.S. Dow future followed investment sentiment down, some funds into safe-haven assets. Gold rose above $1,330 in anticipation of a Fed rate cut.
The US consumer price index slowed to a seasonally adjusted 0.1 per cent monthly rate in May, just in line with market expectations, but in line with expectations it could reverse the dollar's decline, the analysts said yesterday. Finally, the dollar index bounced back from 96.6 to nearly 97.0. U.S. import prices for may and initial jobless claims were among the market's top concerns. If the results are weak and below market expectations, the dollar index could fall from 97. In addition, it is worth looking at the performance of the U.S. stock market and German CPI and Eurozone industrial output data today.
The Swiss national bank announced the interest rate decision today, the market estimated that interest rates and monetary policy unchanged. However, it is worth noting whether the SNB will indicate its future monetary policy stance, which will affect not only the Swiss franc, but also the euro and pound indirectly.

[Important financial data and events]
14:00 Germany CPI monthly final value for May
15:30 Swiss national bank announces interest rate decision
17:00 Eurozone industrial output for April
20:30 US initial jobless claims in the week ended June 8
20:30 US import price index in May
ECB Euro group meeting
Britain first round of prime minister-designate elections

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1305/1.1330 resistance
1.1275/1.1255 support
Yesterday, the dollar rose and the euro adjusted to 1.1280, which is now in the 1.1290 support range. Today markets expect Eurozone economic data weak, with German CPI unchanged in May. The overall trend of the EURUSD, to wait and see the results. If the results are in line with expectations, it could be bullish for the euro. In addition, the European group meeting, the market focused on how the European group to solve Italy's fiscal deficit and future monetary policy stance, attention to downside risks. Technically, the EURUSD did not break resistance at 1.1345 and 1.1360, the EURUSD would keep downtrend. First support would the references 1.1275 and 1.1255.

GBPUSD
1.2745/1.2760 resistance
1.2685/1.2670 support
Around 17 nominees will be chosen for the first round of the UK prime minister election today. Earlier, it was noted that one of the nominees, Johnson, is now the front-runner. His call for a hard brexit without a deal is likely to hurt investor sentiment and bearish on pound. GBPUSD fell from 1.2733 yesterday as the bearish. Technically, pay attention to the first support position 1.2685 and the important support position 1.2650. If the euro remains strong and the pound falls, expect the euro to keep rising against the pound, testing the 0.90 level. Test the key support levels of 0.8875 and 0.8840, if the euro adjusts against pound in the short term.

AUDUSD
0.6940/0.6960 resistance
0.6905/0.6885 support
The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar today after Australia seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 5.2 percent in May, higher than market expectations, after the RBA cut interest rates. Technically, focus on AUDUSD 0.6905 and 0.6885 support. Resistance 0.6940 and 0.6960.

USDJPY
108.50/108.65 resistance
108.00/107.80 support
The dow Jones industrial average fell after the U.S. said it expected a drop in the monthly CPI after the may quarter survey and the trade war between China and the United States continued to dispute. Depending on the depth of the losses in the Dow and Nikkei, the USDJPY could test support at 108.00 or 107.80, respectively. Earlier this analysis pointed out that USDJPY may barrier before 109 resistance, watching it reversing the trend. Keep an eye on the Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend.

USDCAD
1.3315/1.3295 support
1.3360/1.3400 resistance
Crude oil prices fell as U.S. API and EIA inventories rose. The Canadian dollar extended losses, with the U.S. dollar breaking through 1.3305 against the Canadian dollar, having seen 1.3340. If the price of crude oil continues to fall, it will continue to bearish the Canadian dollar. Currently reference support levels 1.3315 and 1.3295, resistance 1.3360 and 1.3400.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
51.55/52.30 resistance
50.60/49.65 support
Crude oil futures fell as U.S. API inventories rose, crude oil inventories have risen sharply, bearish crude futures prices. Weak U.S. monthly CPI data for May and weak production and manufacturing data weighed against crude oil prices. Technically, refer to resistance of 51.55 and 52.30, then look down further at 50.60 and 49.65.

XAUUSD
1338/1342 resistance
1330/1326 support
Fed officials have cut interest rates, which have boosted the dow and led to a correction in gold prices. But as the trade war between China and the United States continues to heat up, the outlook for the U.S. economy is uncertain. The Dow future fell after the U.S. reported a weak monthly CPI reading for may, pushing up gold prices. Test 1338 and 1342 resistance, and last week high 1346. Short-term support at $1330 and $1326.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26050/26170 resistance
25860/25785 support
The Dow future rose after the federal reserve rate-cutting comments, which had boosted investment sentiment. Positive comments from the Fed, though, could boost a rebound in U.S. stocks. However, the continued trade war between China and the United States has affected the economic outlook, and corporate profits are expected to decline, which is bearish for the stock market. Yesterday, the United States released the quarter adjusted CPI monthly rate for May, met the market expectation and bearish the market sentiment. Current reference support 25860 and 25785. Key support 25620.

BTCUSD:
8200 / 8450 resistance
7700 / 7450 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China


Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
Today's focus was on U.S. retail sales and U.S. industrial output, following the reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. The performance of the US data affects the dollar and indirectly affects the price of the dollar against other currencies and gold. French CPI monthly and bank of England governor, Carney attended a activity just to watch.
The market expects the US retail sales and the industrial output increased significantly from the previous month. The dollar index rose last night to try 97.05. It is expected to bullish the dollar ahead. However, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for June is expected to fall continuously, falling below 100 to just expect as 98. Assuming the data could lead the dollar lower, bullish other currencies and gold price.

[Important financial data and events]
14:45 France CPI monthly rate in May
16:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report
20:30 US retail sales monthly rate in May
20:55 BOE Carney attends activity
21:15 U.S. industrial output monthly rate in May
22:00 US business inventory monthly rate for April
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for June

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1290/1.1305 resistance
1.1255/1.1240 support
Eurozone economic data continue to be weak, Germany CPI in May flat, no growth, the overall euro against the dollar trend weak. In addition, the European group meeting, the market focused on how the European group to solve Italy's fiscal deficit and future monetary policy stance, attention to downside risks. Technically, the EURUSD did not break resistance level at 1.1345, while the EURUSD hourly chart still maintains a downward trend. If the EURUSD continues below the 20-hour average without a break, the first target support level is 1.1255 or 1.1240. Investors are watching the European group meeting for any good news and a boost to the euro.

GBPUSD
1.2695/1.2705 resistance
1.2650/1.2635 support
Britain's first round of prime minister-designate elections to select a successor to the next prime minister. Earlier, it was noted that one of the nominees, Johnson, is now the front-runner. He advocates a hard brexit without a deal, which would be bearish for the pound. Yesterday, the trend of GBPUSD fell, technically, GBPUSD initially reached the first support level of 1.2685, looping the next support level of 1.2650. If the euro/sterling short-term adjustment, wait and see key support levels 0.8875 and 0.8840, then testing the 0.90 level.

AUDUSD
0.6920/0.6935 resistance
0.6900/0.6880 support
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.2 percent in May, above market expectations. Bearish the Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar. Market sentiment expected, the reserve bank of Australia may cut interest rates further. AUDUSD would testing 0.6900 and 0.6880 support. Reference resistance levels 0.6920 and 0.6935.

USDJPY
108.40/108.55 resistance
108.00/107.85 support
The fed fund rate cut is expected to increase, investment sentiment increasing, bullish Dow future. But the trade war between China and the United States limited Asian stocks. The Nikkei index was weak, USDJPY could be tested at 108.00 or 107.85 support levels respectively. Short-term resistance at 108.40 and 108.55. To collect USDJPY trend, please keeping an eye on how the U.S. Dow and Nikkei momentum and how affected the USDJPY trend.

USDCAD
1.3320/1.3305 support
1.3360/1.3400 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices fell bearish the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar broke through 1.3305 against the Canadian dollar, which the trend stalled at 1.3340. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it will further bearish Canadian dollar. Currently reference support levels 1.3315 and 1.3295, resistance 1.3360 and 1.3400.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
52.35/52.95 resistance
51.65/51.25 support
U.S. API crude oil stocks increased, and the trade war between China and the United States and seasonal demand reduces, leading to the decline of crude oil futures prices. Although, the Middle East oil supply affected, seems bullish short - term crude prices. But lower crude oil demand is limiting price increases. Technically, refer to the resistance of 52.35 and 52.95, looking further down at 51.65 and 51.25.

XAUUSD
1346/1348 resistance
1340/1338 support
Fed officials have pushed up gold prices with interest rate cuts and worries about slowing global growth. By the middle of next week, the fed is expected to announce a timetable for rate cuts. Gold's gains are limited if the fed considers cutting interest rates. If the decision to cut interest rates, gold prices have room to rise. We are looking for resistance levels 1346 and 1348 again. Short-term support at $1340 and $1338. Significant support at $1,334.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26250/26320 resistance
25960/25885 support
The Fed fund rate-cutting comments come amid a wait-and-see investment climate ahead of next week's fed meeting, which is expected to limit resistance to the U.S. dow at 26250 and 26320. Positive comments from the fed, though, could lift U.S. stocks. But the continuing trade war between China and the United States is hurting the economic outlook and has opportunities to weigh against stocks. Current reference support bits 25960 and 25885. Key support bit 25620.

BTCUSD:
8350 / 8500 resistance
8020 / 7980 support
Trade tension, US economic data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently, hit 8270. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

The next FOMC meeting will take place on June 19, and on June 13 the interest rates markets were pricing in a rate cut of 25 bps by 24.2%, while the likelihood of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in the 225-250 interval was at 75.8%.

The June meeting will be one of those meetings when the Economic Projections are updated, and currently, economists are projecting that the FOMC will use the June meeting to a hint of a rate cut, maybe as early as in July. At least that is what the rates markets is currently pricing in with an 86.9% probability.

There are a few reasons why the market has turned dovish. First, the composite Markit PMI indicator has dropped sharply over the last few months, and is now nearing the 50-boom-bust threshold, and indicating very low growth going forward. If the index slips below 50, it will suggest that the U.S. economy has stalled. Second, in the latest reading, US PCE Core inflation, dropped to 1.57% from being around the Fed 2% target from August 2018 until early 2019. Having interest rates at current levels while the Markit PMI is dropping sharply and thereby suggesting demand is dropping does not bode well for future inflation.

Third, the U.S. employment growth has been very poor in 2019, and February and May showed job growth of 56k, and 75k respectively. Fourth, neither the US or China are backing down, and it looks like the economic war will be prolonged. The situation might even escalate if the US increased tariffs further.

As the ECB is not ready to make any changes to its monetary policy, and the Euro is acting as a funding currency, it looks likely that the EURUSD could drift higher in the months ahead as the Fed cut rates and the ECB leaves their policy unchanged. We could also see a large reaction in the USDJPY, and we might see the price trade lower, as once again the USD is here traded against a funding currency. As for the USD vs. the Australian and New Zealand dollars, I think it is unlikely that we see the dollar weakening too much, as the RBA and RBNZ will probably continue to remain dovish as their economies are soft.

For my technical levels in EURUSD and USDJPY please see the video below.


For more analysis check out https://www.atfx.com/uk/en/technical-analysis/ and interact with Alex on Twitter at https://twitter.com/AlexFX00

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[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
U.S. retail sales and industrial output rose in May, but the Michigan consumer confidence index fell slightly in June. The U.S. data did well, pushing the dollar higher, indirectly affecting the dollar's rise against major currencies and gold price fell from recently high. The dollar index rose, breaking 97.05, once approached 97.55 resistance.
Inflation figures for the Eurozone and the UK are due in the next two days. The market is widely expected to fall, bearish euro and pound, indirect bullish of the dollar. Subsequently, the FOMC meeting this Thursday, announced the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Fed chairman Powell held a news conference afterwards. In May, U.S. economic and employment data were weak and inflation moderated. The Fed is widely expected to cut its planned rate soon. The Fed's meeting is likely to announce a rate cut. If no rate cut is announced at this meeting, but the Fed chairman plans to cut rates more than once in the third and fourth quarters of this year, it could affect investor confidence in dollar assets and the dollar in the second half of the year.

[Important financial data and events]
21:00 Canada existing home sales in May
22:00 U.S. NAHB housing market index for June
04:00 the next day, US capital inflows

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1230/1.1245 resistance
1.1185/1.1165 support
Economic data in the Eurozone continues to be weak, with German CPI unchanged in May last week and expectations of weak overall Eurozone inflation. In addition, the European group meeting, the market focused on how the European group to solve Italy's fiscal deficit and future monetary policy stance, attention to downside risks. Technically, the euro has maintained its downward trend against the dollar on an hourly basis, with the euro continuing to trade below its 20-hour average, breaking through its first target of 1.1255 and reaching its low of 1.1205 in early June. Investors are watching the European group meeting for good news and a boost to the euro. But the euro's rebound was limited by expected weak European data over the next two days.

GBPUSD
1.2615/1.2635 resistance
1.2560/1.2545 support
Tomorrow, the second round of voting for the candidate of next Britain PM. The candidate, Johnson, who wants a hard Brexit without a deal. The UK is facing the risk of a hard Brexit and pound is weak. Technically, there is an opportunity to try 1.2560. If breaks through the 1.2558 support level, the other target below is 1.2460. If the Euro/GBP adjustment, wait and see key support levels 0.8875 and 0.8840 then testing the 0.90 level.

AUDUSD
0.6900/0.6915 resistance
0.6865/0.6850 support
The minutes of the RBA monetary policy meeting tomorrow, the market expectations, they may consider cutting interest rates further to stimulate the economy. The rate cut is expected to see the Australian dollar fall before the Australian economy rebounds. Technically, the focus on AUDUSD to break through the 0.6900 support level, as a reference resistance level. Look down for support of 0.6865 and 0.6850. After the release of the minutes of the monetary policy meeting tomorrow morning, the Australian dollar is expected to stabilize, which may test resistance.

USDJPY
108.80/108.95 resistance
108.45/108.30 support
The Fed fund rate cut is expected to increase, bullish Dow. Dow and Nikkei future was up in Asian trading today, while the dollar rose against the yen. But the trade war between China and the United States continues to be tense, potentially limiting stocks. If the Nikkei index is weak, we expect the dollar to test support levels against the yen. Changes in market information suggest keeping an eye on how the Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend. If the Dow and Nikkei rise, breaking through the recent resistance or support of related indexes, the USDJPY may break out of the range trend.

USDCAD
1.3380/1.3360 support
1.3430/1.3445 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices after the bearish Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it will further bearish Canadian dollar. Also tomorrow, the market is expected the Canada manufacturing orders and inventories for April fall. The day after tomorrow, Canada CPI drop for May, bearish the Canadian dollar. Currently reference support levels 1.3380 and 1.3360, resistance 1.3430 and 1.3445.

Us crude futures USOIL
52.95/53.35 resistance
52.15/51.65 support
Last week, API crude oil stock in the United States increased, which is believed to continue to be affected by the trade war between China and the United States. In addition, affected by the seasonal demand reduction, the impact of oil demand, oil futures prices will fall, the rise limit. Although, the Middle East oil supply affected, short - term support crude prices. But lower overall oil demand is limiting price increases. Technically, refer to 52.95 resistance and look down at 51.65.

XAUUSD
1346/1348 resistance
1339/1337 support
Fed officials and US President comment that have pushed up gold prices. Before the FOMC meeting this week, the Fed fund rate was considering a rate cut, which was also supported by the U.S. President. We are looking at resistance levels 1346 and 1348, or above $1350 again. Short-term support at $1339 and $1337. Significant support at $1,335.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26250/26320 resistance
25960/25885 support
The market wait-and-see investment mood ahead of the FOMC meeting this week and expected the Fed fund rate cut, with the Dow Jones industrial average expected to see a resistance of 26320. Interest rate this cut comments from the Fed, though, could lift U.S. stocks. But the continuing trade war between the U.S. and China has hurt the economic outlook, giving the Dow a chance to turn negative. Current reference support 25960 and 25885. Key support bit 25620.

BTCUSD:
9510 / 9759 resistance
8720 / 8520 support
Trade tension, US economic data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently breaks US9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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