ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
The leaders of China and the United States met at the G20 summit in Japan last weekend. The leaders confirmed arrange the next round of China and US trade consultation. The US President has asked to suspend the extra tariffs for the remaining goods that are going to be imported to the market, so as to ease the tension between the two countries and improve the investment sentiment. U.S. Dow futures, Chinese and Japanese stocks opened higher, indirectly pushing down gold prices and the yen. Since the trade war between China and the United States trade talks, the bullish the price of the yuan, commodity currencies and commodity prices, such as industrial metals and crude oil.
Today release the Europe and the United States their final manufacturing PMI, while the Eurozone and Germany report unemployment rate. The Australian federal reserve bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point tomorrow, with the market betting against the Australian dollar. After that, the next focus on U.S. job data this week. The U.S. ADP payrolls as important on Wednesday.

[Important financial data and events]
09:45 China Caixin manufacturing PMI for June
14:30 Switzerland actual retail sales rate for May
15:50 French manufacturing PMI for June
15:55 German manufacturing PMI for June
15:55 German unemployment rate for June
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June
16:30 UK Bank of England mortgage lending permit for May
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for June
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate for May
20:00 opening ceremony of the 176th OPEC
21:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for June
22:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June
23:00 press conference of the 176th Opec general assembly

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1385/1.1405 resistance
1.1345/1.1325 support
The Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June and the unemployment rate are likely to be negative for the euro ahead of expected slower growth than the previous reading. Then, looking at the U.S. manufacturing PMI data in June, the market expected a slowdown, estimated before the release, bearish dollar, bullish euro. Technically, the euro short-term support is expected at 1.1345 and 1.1325. If U.S. economic data is weak, the euro could test resistance to 1.1385 or 1.1405.

GBPUSD
1.2700/1.2720 resistance
1.2675/1.2655 support
U.K. faces a huge risk of a hard brexit without a deal, with British pound weak. The UK manufacturing PMI for June and the US manufacturing PMI for June, release today. The market expects the manufacturing PMI to be weak in both countries, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI showing weakness than the UK's, so there are opportunities to gain British pound. Technically, short-term GBPUSD technical resistance recommendations 1.2700 and 1.2720. Short-term support at 1.2675 and 1.2655. The euro is currently trading between 0.8920 and 0.8975 against British pound. Should the pound fall further, the EURGBP could test 0.9000.

AUDUSD
0.7020/0.7050 resistance
0.6985/0.6960 support
At the G20 summit over the weekend, the leaders of China and the United States met and confirmed the formal resumption of trade talks and the suspension of the rest of the plans to impose tariffs on imports from China. However, the RBA interest rate decision tomorrow, the market is expected to cut 0.25%, change the Australian dollar investment sentiment, the Australian dollar fall. Technically, the Australian dollar has failed to break through 0.7050 and 0.7070 after rising to a high of 0.7020 in early June. By the RBA interest rate cut opportunity, AUDUSD short term adjustment. The proposed support bit is 0.6985 or 0.6960. Generally, the trend of the NZDUSD to follow the direction of the AUDUSD, is worth watching.

USDJPY
108.00/107.75 support
108.50/108.75 resistance
At the end of the weekend, the leaders of the G20, China and the United States agreed to cooperate and resume trade negotiations. The US President suspended tariffs on the rest of China's imports, and the Nikkei and China A50 index opened higher amid strong investment sentiment. The dollar rose against the yen, trading as high as 108.50 in early Asia trading hours today. At present, the USDJPY trend, continue to follow the performance of the stock market and safe-haven flows. The dollar could rise further against the yen if estimates of a month-on-month rise in U.S. jobs data this week boost the dow and Asian stocks. Technically, the dollar is expected to follow the Dow and Nikkei. Currently the expected support bits are first referenced at 108.00 and 107.75.

USDCAD
1.3070/1.3055 support
1.3135/1.3150 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices are near $60, bullish the Canadian dollars. After the meeting between Chinese leader and US presidents, the relations improved, they planned to restart the trade consultation meeting, and agreed to promote the economy and suspend the imposition of new additional tariffs, which increased the price of crude oil and indirectly increased the Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices further boost, bullish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD may break through 1.3055 support. On the contrary, a fall in crude oil prices would likely be negative for the Canadian dollar, with the first target of 1.3150 resistance.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
59.70/60.50 resistance
57.75/56.85 support
Before the U.S. market closed on Friday, crude oil futures adjusted 23.6% to $57.76 on concerns about the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China, as well as concerns about oil demand and oversupply. Finally, crude oil prices got a boost from the weekend's positive news on China and US trade relations. Furthermore, the OPEC released the cut production plan, boost the crude oil price. Technically, $59.70 is near a one-month high, a current resistance. Crude oil futures could fall if there is no further good news or negative news from the trade talks. Crude oils prices could also fall as the U.S. and Iran tensions cool down. If crude oil price go down, the initial target is $57.75 or $56.85.

XAUUSD
1401/1411 resistance
1384/1374 support
Federal reserve chairman Powell said the Fed rate cut was not as high as expected by the market, the first wave of gold price adjustment. The second wave hit the adjustment of gold price after Chinese and US leaders decided to resume negotiations and risk aversion cooled. With the the good news of China and US trade relationship, the gold price broke 1400 support in the Asian market today, having seen US1384, US27 gaps from last week's closing price. At present, the market is waiting to see the European market trading attitude, suggest first observe and then look forward to market sentiment. A weak expected the U.S. manufacturing PMI for June, release today. If weaker than expected, boost gold prices. On the contrary, gold prices fall.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26905/27150 resistance
26680/26635 support
China-US trade consultations reopening and the US suspended new tariffs on China. Good news, to boost the investment climate. Dow futures were up in Asian trading. Driven by good news, the Dow broke through technical resistance 26759. If the trade talks can make better progress, bullish Dow and test 26905 or 27150 resistance. But today, the U.S. release the manufacturing PMI in Jun which is expected to be weak, and the Dow is likely to test lower, references support 26680 and 26635. On the contrary, 26905 or 27150 resistance.

BTCUSD:
11600 / 12350 resistance
10350 / 10050 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon. Bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably go down as well.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

GBPUSD volatility has decreased in the last month as the market awaits the new conservative leader, and likewise the next UK Prime Minister. The pound has been trading below the 1.27 mark against USD over the past month, but increased uncertainty around Brexit could send the pound to levels of about 1.24 or lower.

Boris Johnson was the man of the Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum and has promised to drive Great Britain out of the European Union with or without a deal. Since that time Boris Johnson is getting closer to become the next UK Prime Minister, and that has hurt Pound Sterling.

In the last week of July, the Conservative party members will vote to decide who will be the next leader. The new prime minister could seek to renegotiate parts of Theresa May’s deal; a non-binding political declaration, which sets out the future trade relationships between the Eurozone and Great Britain.

Boris Johnson has been the favorite candidate amongst MPs, and bookmakers are giving it an 80% probability that he will become the next UK PM. It does, therefore, look like it is more or less a done deal that he will be the next PM.

What to expect if Boris Johnson becomes the next UK PM?
Boris continues to support the Brexit strongly and pledges to take Britain out of the EU on October 31st regardless if any deal is agreed or not with the EU. Only the UK Parliament can stop him if he wins his party leadership and that means that there is a risk of an early general election in the country, a scenario that will also hurt Sterling, as it is anticipated that Nigel Farage could get a larget share of the UK parliament with his Brexit Party.

Currently, markets are pricing in a soft Brexit or a revocation of Article 50. However, as Boris Johnson heads to 10 Downing Street, these scenarios have become increasingly unlikely and with Boris in the driver seat, it looks like we are heading closer to a hard Brexit. Now markets have to evaluate how much the Sterling has discounted a Boris win and a no deal Brexit.

The Pound got a hit on the chin in Spring, from 1.31 in April ended down to 1.25 in June as the no deal Brexit scenario emerged along with Boris favorite for Downing 10. FX experts think that a softer Brexit could provide a boost to the UK economy by providing confidence to consumers and certainty to companies.

The best case scenario for the pound is a soft Brexit that can push the price up to 1.31 against the greenback (GBPUSD). The Bank of England can also boost the Pound. The latest UK interest rate decision came in as expected, keeping the interest rates at the current level but warned of the slowdown due to Brexit concerns. Any clues that UK interest rates might need to be raised in the future in a case of soft Brexit could lead to a sterling rally. Although the BoE has not been supportive to a rate cut in the recent policy meetings that might change if we get an agreement.

In case of a no-deal Brexit, most forex traders expect that GBPUSD will visit the lows from October 2016 at 1.1964. As Boris Johnson is getting closer to be the next Prime Minister, markets has started to discount also a no deal Brexit. Although investors have to be cautious in the case of that extreme scenario, I don’t expect that the price will hit the 2016 low. The British economy has been preparing for two years now to handle any outcome. Many analysts forecast a 5% drop in GDP in the case of no-deal, but as we are heading closer to the deadline, I estimate that the impact will be less severe.

One thing is for sure; the sterling will be in a roller coaster ride in upcoming months as Brexit headlines will cross wires, and we approach the October 31st deadline.

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcreq0cEGexniPgfZrnPgWw

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[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

United States independence day holiday, US market close and no US data release today. Dow future closed at its highest level in 2018 before US holiday. Investors are looking ahead US non-farm payrolls report and following data for June. U.S. ADP payrolls released yesterday, below market expectations of 140,000 jobs created in June. Generally, the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow, would be below 200,000. If the non-farm payroll shows the labor market and economic activity slowing. It means US deflation coming.
Of course, the market expects the U.S. economy to be affected by the trade war with China, along with U.S. trade balance and factory orders weak numbers. As a result, the Fed meeting at the end of the month, the market generally believe that the possibility of Fed fund rate cuts, the dollar has the opportunity to downward, causing gold prices to rise.

No figures were released in the United States today. The market main focus is only Swiss CPI, German construction PMI and Eurozone retail sales. Markets were already expecting a monthly rise in retail sales in the Eurozone in May, bullish the euro already. But if the market is already expecting the US non-farm payrolls to under expectations, the dollar will fall further. The dollar fell against major currencies, and gold prices are expected to rise.

[Important financial data and events]
U.S. stocks were closed for the US holiday
09:30 Australian retail sales in May
14:30 Swiss monthly CPI for June
15:30 German construction PMI for June
17:00 Eurozone monthly retail sales for May

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1320/1.1340 resistance
1.1280/1.1265 support
Eurozone government bond prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with interest rates falling to record lows. The European central bank showed earlier to strengthen loose monetary policy. And the US President threatened to impose tariffs on imports to limit the rise of the euro. Technically, the euro support levels are expected at 1.1280 and 1.1265. Testing the resistance to 1.1320 and 1.1340 with expectations of a drop in U.S. jobs data and the Fed rate cut at the end of the month.

GBPUSD
1.2620/1.2645 resistance
1.2565/1.2540 support
U.K. economic data weak, limited the GBP gains. Technically, the British pound was adjusted to 1.2565, For the release tomorrow of U.S. non-farm payrolls for June. The British pound would be stable. The euro rose against British pound, which is expected to test 0.9000.

AUDUSD
0.7065/0.7080 resistance
0.7025/0.7005 support
The Australian dollar was supported by the RBA saying it was not considering further rate cuts in the short term, AUDUSD back to 0.70 level. Yesterday, the US ADP job data under expectations. The US trade account and US factory orders also weak, the US dollar fell, benefit of the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is testing the resistance at 0.7065 and 0.7080 ahead of the AU retail sales increased. The New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar higher. If the market expects the US non-farm payrolls lower expected. The Australian dollar would be hit 0.7080 as a key resistance.

USDJPY
107.45/107.25 support
107.85/108.10 resistance
The U.S. President has threatened the European Union with tariffs on imported goods, China's service sector PMI fell in June, the U.S. labor market is expected to be weak and the federal reserve may cut interest rates by the end of the month. The dollar is currently limited against the yen. It is recommended to wait and see if the US non-farm payrolls data will lift the Dow and Asian equities before lifting the dollar against the yen. Short term recommendation, USDJPY’s reference support at 107.45 and 107.25, resistance at 107.85 and 108.10.

USDCAD
1.3030/1.3015 support
1.3085/1.3100 resistance
Canada manufacturing purchasing index and national economic confidence index showed growth, fundamentals are positive, bullish for the Canadian dollar. The bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting. Trade talks between China and the United States have made new progress. US ADP labor market data and industrial orders in the United States were weak, while crude oil prices fell, limiting the rise in the Canadian dollar. Technically, note the USDCAD support would be 1.3030 and 1.3015. A fall in crude oil prices would likely be bearish for the Canadian dollar, which resistance would be 1.3085 and 1.3100.

Us crude oil futures
57.70/58.55 resistance
56.20/55.85 support
Us crude oil futures fell to US56 after the US President threatened to impose tariffs on eu imports, but the US API crude oil inventories reduced, stable crude prices. In addition, China and the United States plan to start consultations in the near this week, which has improved the investment sentiment and led to the rise in crude oil demand. Technically, crude oil futures were supported at 56.20 with resistance to targets of 57.70 and 58.55.

XAUUSD
1428/1432 resistance
1418/1414 support
The federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, the European central bank and the UK are both planning to cut interest rates, and gold is favored. Our analysis mentions that before, the European central bank monetary policy orientation and the federal reserve rate cut expectations, estimated to support gold prices in the short term at $1,380. If the U.S. non-farm payroll data expects to weak, gold has a chance to US1440. Current technical estimates, 1428 and 1432resistance, 1418 and 1414 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
US holiday, market close.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon, theirs relationship improved, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. However, the US President plans to impose tariffs on EU. ECB and BOE plans decreases interest rate. US ADP jobs data affected the US non-farm payroll expectations. These all of news, changing the market sentiment, bullish the bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
U.S. non-farm payrolls and jobs report for June release today , the market focus on these data results. Since the US ADP payroll just 100,000, estimate the U.S. non-farm payrolls lower as well. But the market expected the US non-farm payrolls lower, just depends how lower. If the number of the non-farm payrolls below 200,000 means a slowing labor market and a slowing economic activity, which has the potential to deflation. The market prepared to cut interest rates by the end of the month. Suppose, today, the US non-farm payrolls were above 100,000 in June, if close to market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate keeps at 3.6%, and more importantly, the average hourly wages could keep rising. It believes it can change the market expectation and Fed rate may not cut, lead the dollar higher.
The release of the U.S. jobs data, depending on the results and market expectations of the difference, may affect the level of federal reserve interest rates and price fluctuations by the U.S. Treasury bonds price, the market prices are volatile. Please note that the market price may not be a fixed quotation and failed to deal with the current market price, please note!

[Important financial data and events]
13:00 Japan leading economic indicators for May
14:00 German manufacturing orders for May
15:30 UK Halifax's house price index in June
16:30 Bank of England meeting
20:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly wage for June
20:30 Canada unemployment rate and payroll change in June
22:00 Canada IVEY purchasing managers index for June

Today suggestion :
EURUSD
1.1300/1.1315 resistance
1.1265/1.1240 support
The European central bank has said it will step up monetary easing to boost the economy. With the ECB President stepping down in October, a new successor is in place, and is expected to keep the Eurozone policy loose. The US President said he would impose tariffs on imports from the European Union, Germany economic growth slowed and so on. These factors have been limiting the euro rise. The U.S. jobs data if non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate held steady today. The hourly average wages higher. Believe that the euro gains limited, and there are opportunities to fall. Technically, EURUSD noted 1.1315 resistance to 1.1240 support.

GBPUSD
1.2620/1.2645 resistance
1.2560/1.2535 support
U.K. conservative party leader election. One of candidate called Johnson who support hard Brexit without deal. Bad for UK and GBP. The market expected UK economic data continue to be weak and the Bank of England has cut interest rates within this year. These factors have limited GBP rise, and weak trend. The market focus US jobs data today. Believe the British pound could fall further if the US data stronger. Technically, the British pound first support is 1.2560 and could fall further. GBPUSD testing 1.2505, as June low.
\
AUDUSD
0.7035/0.7055 resistance
0.7005/0.6985 support
U.S. ADP payroll remained weak in June and is expected US non-farm payroll to be weak in June as well. The dollar fell, indirectly bullish the Australian dollar. After the market focus on the U.S. non-farm payrolls performance, the situation will affect the dollar. If the results are close to market expectations, the U.S. dollar could strengthen and the Australian dollar could fall.

USDJPY
107.65/107.45 support
107.95/108.15 resistance
The Dow and Nikkei overall upward, giving the USDJPY a chance to rally. Short-term suggestion, USDJPY reference support at 107.65 and 107.45, resistance at 107.95 and 108.15. If USDJPY break 108.15, next resistance would be 108.55.

USDCAD
1.3030/1.3015 support
1.3085/1.3100 resistance
The market is watching the U.S. nonfarm payrolls and job data report for June today. At the same time the Canada release the Canada non-farm payrolls report for June. Most recent Canadian data have been positive. The market expected the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday. If Canada non-farm payrolls report show significant increased today, would be bullish Canadian dollars. Technically, 1.3030 and 1.3015 as USDCAD support. If crude oil prices fall that would be bearish for the Canadian dollar. Technical resistance would be 1.3085 and 1.3100.

Us crude oil futures
57.30/58.30 resistance
56.20/55.85 support
As the market watches the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for June, a rise in the number of payroll and average wages is expected to boost demand for oil, while bullish crude prices fall. Technically, crude oil futures were supported at 56.20, with resistance of 57.30 and 58.30 likely to be tested. But breaking through 56.20 and 55.85 support, the next possible down $53 to $52.

XAUUSD
1423/1427 resistance
1409/1405 support
The easing monetary policy of the European central bank and the expected interest rate cut of the federal reserve supported the extension of gold price above $1,380. The market is watching today's U.S. June jobs report and average wages. If the U.S. data beat expectations, gold price has a chance to fall, and vice versa. The current technical estimate, gold prices 1423 and 1427 as resistance, 1409 and 1405 as support. The U.S. jobs report for June and the results of the average wage level will influence the Fed monetary policy decisions. Note that gold prices would be extend the technical support and resistance levels.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27005/27035 resistance
26935/26895 support
Today, focus on the U.S. non-farm payroll and the hourly average wages results. These data will affect the federal reserve's monetary policy decisions in this month and market sentiment immediately, directly affecting the U.S. Dow Future volatility. The Dow future fluctuated after the U.S. jobs data report for June. The current technical estimates, Dow future 27005 and 27035 resistance, 26935 and 26895 support at the narrow fluctuations.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon, theirs relationship improved, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. However, the US President plans to impose tariffs on EU. ECB and BOE plans decreases interest rate. US ADP jobs data affected the US non-farm payroll expectations. These all of news, changing the market sentiment, bullish the bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
The US non-farm payrolls rose to 224,000 in June, up from 75,000 in May, as the US labour market returned to expansion levels above 200,000. Average hourly wages in the United States rose a modest 0.2 percent in June as two key jobs data reduced the chances of the federal reserve cutting interest rates in this end of month.

The U.S. jobs data improved, with the dollar index rebounding to 97 level. European currencies fell after the head of the European central bank said he was stepping up loose monetary policy in light of weak European economic data. In the short term, eurozone data showing growth could stabilize the euro.

[Important financial data and events]
13:00 Japan economic situation index for June
14:00 German industrial output in May
14:00 German quarterly trade and current accounts for May
14:30 France BOF business confidence index for June
16:00 China foreign exchange reserves, new loans approved and money supply for June
16:30 Eurozone Sentix sentiment index for July
22:00 Canadian national economic confidence index
22:00 U.S. conference board employment trends for June

Today suggestion :
EURUSD
1.1245/1.1265 resistance
1.1205/1.1185 support
US non-farm payrolls rose to 224,000 in June, far more than in May. The European central bank is strengthening its policy stance on easing monetary policy, and expects to maintain its policy stance on the eurozone. In the absence of positive eurozone economic data, it would believe the euro is still limiting gains. Technically, note the 1.1205 and 1.1185 support and 1.1245 and 1.1265 resistance.

GBPUSD
1.2500/1.2480 support
1.2545/1.2565 resistance
U.K. conservative party leader election, support hard brexit Johnson who is leading the election. UK economic data continues to be weak and the Bank of England said it is considering cutting interest rates against U.K. economic slowdown. In addition, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose sharply to in June. U.S. average wages rose in June, the economy still has a chance of inflation and the federal reserve may not need to rush to cut interest rates. The dollar strengthened and the British pound fell. Technically, the British pound fell from a June low of 1.2505 to a lower of 1.2480. After the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which could stabilize British pound. Expect to see 1.2565 resistance, waiting for the British pound next trend.

AUDUSD
0.6975/0.6955 support
0.7000/0.7025 resistance
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose in June, while the U.S. dollar rose, indirectly hurting the Australian dollar. The technical adjustment of the Australian dollar against the us dollar last Monday's low 0.6955 support. The Australian dollar is expected to hold its losses against the U.S. dollar if strong U.S. employment data is factored in and there is no positive U.S. economic data or news to add. The market will wait and see the results of the Australian consumer confidence index tomorrow.

USDJPY
108.15/108.00 support
108.65/108.80 resistance
The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June was strong, lowering expectations of a rate cut by the federal reserve. The Dow Jones index and Asian stocks market rose, while the dollar rose against the yen. Today, Japan government reported a large widening trade deficit in May, with machinery orders and bank loans falling, limiting the Nikkei and USDJPY. Recommend support at 108.15 and 108.00, resistance at 108.65 and 108.80. Last Friday, this analysis pointed out that if the USDJPY breaks through 108.15, then looking at 108.55 resistance. The USDJPY trend is likely to extend resistance to 108.80 at the moment, but keeps watching for global stock market declines and the USDJPY may test 108.15 support.

USDCAD
1.3055/1.3030 support
1.3100/1.3125 resistance
The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June was strong, in contrast to a weak June job datas from Canada. From these datas compared with two countries, bearish for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar recouped some of its losses as crude oil prices rose on the back of strong U.S. jobs data. A fall in crude oil prices would likely be bearish for the Canadian dollar, which is currently targeting resistance of 1.3100 and 1.3125. Instead, look for 1.3055 or 1.3030 support.

Us crude oil futures
58.05/58.30 resistance
57.00/56.65 support
The US non-farm payrolls report was strong, with payrolls rising that levels considered expansionary. U.S. average wages rose in June, raising expectations for oil demand and bullish the crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil futures recently support at 56.20 and are currently focused on 58.30 resistance. If crude oil futures prices fall, reference support would be $57.00 and $56.65.

XAUUSD
1403/1405 resistance
1390/1388 support
U.S. non-farm payroll were much better than expected and gold prices fell. The current technical estimate of gold prices 1390 and 1388 support. This month the market will watch for progress on the China and U.S. trade talks, US inflation data and the Fed interest rate decision at the end of the month. Now, the U.S. job report for June and keeping increasing in hourly average wages that will influence the Fed monetary policy decisions in this month, with gold prices looking weaker and key support looking at $1,380.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26895/26955 resistance
26765/26675 support
The U.S. non-farm payroll and hourly average wages in June, the non-farm payroll over market expectations. The market estimates that the Fed monetary policy may remain, may not cut interest rates at the end of this month, the direct impact of the U.S. Dow has fallen. The Dow future was still rising after a strong June jobs report. Current technical estimates, 26895 and 26955 resistance, 26765 and 26675 support such ranging. There were no major US economic data released at the beginning of this week. It would suggest to pay attention to the China and US trade consultation meeting this week.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening this week. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price keeps go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
Fed chairman Powell delivers a speech and statement at the hearing. The dollar gained on expectations that the Fed, concerned about rising inflation and improving trade relations with the United States, will not need to cut interest rates at the end of this month. The U.S. dollar rose, while European and commodity currencies (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar ) fell. The dollar improved, safe-haven funds flow out the yen and gold, money flowed into stocks, the Dow rose.

UK could be delay a Brexit with the European Union by the end of October, raising expectations of a hard risk for the British pound that also follows the euro weakness. If there is no good news to boost European currencies in the short term, the trend is expected to remain weak.

Today, the market focus on the Fed chairman Powell speech, pay attention to his speech, predict the
monetary policy orientation, looking for when to cut interest rates or increase intention and timetable. In addition, the bank of Canada is expected to raise its target interest rate to 2 percent today. But with the global economy slowing and interest rates loose, it remains to be seen tonight whether the bank of Canada will raise interest rates as expected, and watch for fluctuations in the Canadian dollar.

[Important financial data and events]
09:30 China CPI and PPI in June
14:45 French industrial output in May
16:30 UK trade account in May
16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in May
16:30 UK GDP for May
22:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision
22:00 US The federal reserve chairman Powell at the hearing
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change
23:15 The bank of Canada press conference
Next day 01:30 Fed bullard attends a hearing session
Next day 02:00 Fed released monetary policy minutes

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1225/1.1245 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
U.S. nonfarm payrolls were much stronger than expected in June. US inflation data are expected to be stronger than last month, bullish the dollar. For now, there is no good data or news to boost the euro. The federal reserve has ruled out cutting interest rates early in response to the European central bank's call for more easy money. Believe the euro's rise limit, Euro to be fall. Most notable today, the federal reserve chairman Powell speech. Technically, euro volatility can be noted 1.1185 support and 1.1245 resistance.

GBPUSD
1.2425/1.2400 support
1.2485/1.2505 resistance
UK conservative party leader election, Boris Johnson, has surged ahead of his rivals over nearly 76% of the vote. Brexit is likely to be postponed, with the belief that UK economic data may continue to be weak and difficult to recover. If Fed chairman Powell makes a speech confirming there is no need to rush to cut interest rates by the end of this month or this year, the dollar will strengthen and British pound could fall further. Technically, the British pound could low of 1.2425 from half a year ago or probably break through its support.

AUDUSD
0.6905/0.6885 support
0.6965/0.6980 resistance
The U.S. non-farm payrolls rose in June, while the federal reserve stayed on the sidelines to see how U.S. inflation. Probably the Fed no need to cut interest rate immediately. In addition, the Australian consumer confidence index fell in July, which was also bearish for the Australian dollar. Federal reserve chairman Powell speech today that also the Australian dollar could fall further if the fed chairman further confirms that there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month and the US dollar strengthens. Technically, it is suggested to pay attention to 0.6905 support and 0.6965 resistance. Expect the trend of AUDUSD , the same impact on the NZDUSD.

USDJPY
108.80/108.65 support
109.15/109.35 resistance
The Fed chairman Powell spoke at a Fed hearing today, saying the yen could fall further if the Fed chairman further confirms that there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month and the dollar strengthens. Markets are likely to be more focused on the results of the June U.S. inflation data tomorrow. At present, the USDJPY trend extended through 108.80 resistance, suggest more attention to the Fed chairman Powell speech today. Tomorrow the US will release inflation data CPI in June. Watch the impact of the dollar on the yen. Finally need to pay more attention to the global stock market trend development, the USDJPY trend would be followed.

USDCAD
1.3075/1.3055 support
1.3155/1.3175 resistance
The Bank of Canada interest rate decision and monetary policy report tonight, the market forecast the bank of Canada keeps the interest rate not increasing, temporarily bearish the Canadian dollar. The dollar could return to support of 1.3075 or 1.3055 against the Canadian dollar if the bank of Canada raises interest rate. And vice versa. In addition, the federal reserve chairman Powell spoke at a federal reserve hearing this evening. If the Fed chairman further confirms that there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month, the U.S. dollar may strengthen and the Canadian dollar may fall. What's more, if the price of crude oil falls, it will probably deepen bearish the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
58.85/59.30 resistance
57.00/56.65 support
U.S. API crude oil inventory reduction over expected, bullish crude oil prices. In addition, the US imposed sanctions on Iran, the US-Iran tensions heated up. Furthermore, the crude oil prices were boosted by news that OPEC plans to cut production. The ministry of trade between China and the United States decided to cancel some additional tariffs through telephone consultations. Now, watching Fed chairman Powell speech would be next important topic, if the Fed chairman confirm that there is no need to cut interest rates at the end of this month, crude oil prices may adjust accordingly to fall. Technically, the current focus on 59.30 important resistance. If crude oil futures prices fall, reference support at $57.00 and $56.65.

XAUUSD
1398/1402 resistance
1387/1383 support
U.S. jobs data in June were much better than expected, the dollar rose and gold prices fell. Gold prices could fall further if Fed chairman Powell confirms there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month. The market expects U.S. inflation to rise in June. The result will release tomorrow. At present, the technical support for gold price assuming 1390 and 1388, but the Fed chairman Powell speech today, before and after, may be relatively volatile. The key support and resistance, looking at 1383 support and 1402 resistance.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
26895/26955 resistance
26755/26675 support
U.S. job data strengthening and expect inflation rose in June, bullish the Dow, Dow rose slightly. More importantly, the US and China trade ministries confirmed the cancellation of some of the additional tariffs during the phone call, which lifted the stock market. Current technical estimates, 26895 and 26955 resistance, 26755 and 26675 support ranging trading. Attention to the trade consultation and Fed chairman Powell speech today, stock market may be volatility during the speech.

BTCUSD:
13350 / 13950 resistance
12750 / 12450 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Probably, the US-Iran tensions may affected the safe heavens fund hedging, part of fund transfer to crypto currencies. It was suggest the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price keeps go down further, the bitcoin price probably follow and go down. Technically, US14000 which is critical resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:
The dollar fell last night after federal reserve chairman Powell speech and presentation that trade tensions could pose downside risks to U.S. markets, the economy and inflation. He added that the U.S. economy remains weak, suggesting that all fed officials are in favor of a rate cut if the economy and inflation slow.
Asian stocks rose today as the Dow rebounded on expectations that the federal reserve could cut interest rates China A50, Nikkei and Hong Kong hang seng index all rose. But interest rate cut expectations rose, the dollar index fell, the dollar fell against other major currencies. European currencies rose and commodity currencies did well. Gold and oil futures rose.
Today's focus is on US inflation data for June and the federal reserve chairman speech at the hearing again. If the monthly U.S. consumer price index rose sharply above market expectations of 0.2 percent in June and edged closer to 1 percent inflation, the dollar could rebound sharply. Gold prices and crude oil prices also have a chance of falling against other currencies. Then Fed chairman Powell made another presentation on the final day of the hearing, listening closely to Powell's presentation of the Fed's monetary policy. In the meantime, there could be make the market volatility.

[Important financial data and events]
14:00 Germany CPI monthly final value for June
14:45 France CPI in June
17:30 Bank of England releases its financial stability report
19:30 European central bank minutes
20:30 US initial jobless claims
20:30 US CPI the monthly rate of June
22:00 Fed chairman Powell testifies at the hearing meeting
23:10 Fed Williams attends seminar and speech
The next day 01:30 Fed governor John Quarles speech

Today suggestion :
EURUSD
1.1275/1.1300 resistance
1.1240/1.1225 support
The dollar fell and European currencies rose yesterday in a speech by federal reserve chairman Powell speech. The euro broke through resistance of 1.1245 and will try resistance of 1.1275/1.1300. However, it depends on the CPI rate of June in Germany and the minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting released today. First of all, the market expected the final monthly CPI in June to be flat. The minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting mainly mentioned the extension of loose monetary policy, which was negative for the euro. The biggest potential boost to the euro is likely to come when the U.S. consumer price index for June came in below market expectations. Fed chairman Powell in the hearing, the last day of the speech again, reiterated the expected rate cut remarks. Conversely, European currencies continue to be bearish. Technically, the key resistance is 1.1275 and 1.1300. Refer to significant support bit 1.1225.

GBPUSD
1.2515/1.2530 resistance
1.2480/1.2465 support
Brexit to be delayed by the popularity of conservative party leader Boris Johnson. The market believes that UK economic data is likely to remain weak and difficult to recover. But Fed chairman Powell speech, he said the economy remains fragile and that the fed will cut rates in the future if needed. Comments on the weaker dollar, British pound took the opportunity to rebound. Technically, the British pound is still likely to dip to its low of 1.2425 six months ago. Currently, if British pound would not break through 1.2530 resistance, the trend may be lower. It is worth watching today's us June CPI and Fed chairman Powell speech at the hearing again.

AUDUSD
0.6930/0.6910 support
0.6965/0.6985 resistance
In the Fed speech yesterday, the chairman Powell confirmed that the Fed is still considering rate cuts. The dollar fell, indirectly bullish the AUDUSD. In addition, the easing of trade relations between the United States and China and the expected increase of Chinese import from Australia are also factors contributing to the Australian dollar's rise. The US released June CPI today and Fed chairman Powell gave a speech at the hearing again. Technically, it is suggested to pay attention to AUDUSD 0.6930 support and 0.6985 resistance. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar as well.

USDJPY
108.00/107.85 support
108.45/108.60 resistance
The dollar fell and the yen rose yesterday as federal reserve chairman Powell confirmed interest rate cut expectations at a Fed hearing. Today, the US released inflation data CPI for June and Fed chairman Powell's speech at the hearing. Watch the impact of the dollar on the yen. We also need to pay more attention to the global stock market sentiment. Assuming, the dollar could rise against the yen for the first time if the U.S. consumer price index rises higher than expected. Afterwards, listens to the federal reserve chairman Powell to make a speech in the hearing, grasps the information again, judges the dollar trends.

USDCAD
1.3055/1.3035 support
1.3115/1.3135 resistance
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada remains the interest rates unchanged, once bearish Canadian dollar. However, the Fed chairman said there is still a chance for the Fed to cut interest rates, while there is an interest rate upward in Canada. The USDCAD back to 1.3055 support. If Fed chairman Powell confirms further interest rate cuts by the end of this month. Also, if crude oil prices rose, it would strengthen the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
60.85/61.30 resistance
59.70/58.85 support
U.S. API crude oil inventory reduction, the gulf of Mexico storm, crude oil production decreased, bullish crude oil prices. Federal reserve chairman colin Powell's speech further confirmed that the federal reserve continues to consider interest rate cuts, oil prices rose further. Technically, at present 59.30 important resistance breakthrough, look up 60.85 and 61.30 resistance. Conversely, other factors, such as a lull in us inflation as the gulf of Mexico storm subsides, could push oil futures lower, with the first reference support at $59.70 and $58.85.

XAUUSD
1427/1430 resistance
1417/1414 support
Gold prices could fall further on expectations that U.S. inflation data rose in June. If U.S. inflation data rose higher than expected, watch gold's fall widen. Currently, short term gold price technical support at 1417 and 1414. Fed chairman Powell today before and after the speech, the gold prices may be volatile, advised attention, and well prepare any risk management.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26955/27005 resistance
26855/26745 support
U.S. inflation data for June were expected to rise, the Dow future was bullish, and the sentiment for U.S. stocks improved slightly. In addition, the Fed chairman said interest rate cuts are still being considered. US government improving trade relations with China have boosted stocks. Current technical estimate, assuming the Dow at 27005 as a resistance and 26745 as a support. Attention to the Fed chairman Powell's speech at hearing today, during the time the stock market may be volatile.

BTCUSD:
12350 / 12950 resistance
11450 / 11050 support
China and U.S. trade tensions cool down. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Probably, the US-Iran tensions may affected the safe heavens fund hedging, part of fund transfer to crypto currencies. But seems not last longer, the hedges position would close when the tensions cool down. Technically, found the bitcoin price at US13000 which is critical resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

NFLX EARNINGS PREVIEW: Netflix Expands Internationally

Netflix focus has turned to international expansion as the fast growing company is looking for new clients. Netflix is working on projects across many countries such as Italy, Mexico, Brazil, Spain, Germany, France, and Turkey. It also has a strong portfolio of shows in India, with over twelve local language originals and twenty local language movies. The latest move will be in London, England, where Netflix will establish a dedicated production hub as the company grows its presence in Great Britain. Examples of the growing number of UK based projects to be filmed this year, include The English Game, Cursed and Jingle Jingle.

Netflix strategy is to expand globally as fast as possible while maintaining profits. The international markets that NFLX has a presence in are growing quickly and have already contributed positively to the bottom line. International markets continue to grow and generate meaningful profits that boost the expansion in the rest of the world. The company has added 24.81 million users from the end of Q1 2018 until Q1 2019.

The stock’s 52-week range is $231.23 to $419.77, and the capitalization stands at 166.9B. In the table below, you can find the NFLX stock price performance from one month to 10 years.

The company for the first quarter of 2019 reported that average streaming paid users increased by 26 percent annually, while the Annual Revenue Per User (ARPU) shrunk by 2 percent over the year due to FX fluctuations. Excluding exchange rate issues, the international streaming ARPU increased 3 percent (YoY). Year over year total revenue growth of 22 percent compares against 40 percent in Q1’18, which boosted from several price changes that took place in Q4 2017 as well as forex. On a forex neutral basis, Q1 2019 revenue grew 28 percent year over year.

The company expects to grow from 60 to 90 million users in the USA, based upon company’s history and the continued growth of online entertainment. The operating margin structure is set mostly top down. The company for the next quarter forecasts the revenues and decides what to spend, and how much margin they want in that period.

Netflix started in 1997 as a DVD rental by mail, the company spent five years struggling to find a sustainable growth plan that was cash flow positive. The company spent most of the next five years competing with Blockbuster. The streaming business started in 2007, and internationally in 2010. The first original series started in 2013. The company became global in 2016, almost twenty years after starting Netflix. I expect in the coming decades, internet entertainment to replace TV, and the NFLX will be the major player in the industry.

The competition has intensified in the last years as big internet and entertainment names enter the market such as Amazon Prime, Disney Plus, and Apple TV. A big advantage of the company is that is offering several different tiers of pricing so that clients can select a plan that best fits their needs. NFLX also tests different approaches to pricing with different plans and prices, to better cover client demand.

FX exposure is a new headache for the company as it is growing internationally. NFLX engages in hedging, in which the spending on international markets is paid in the country currency to match the revenue collected from local users. The company also adjusts prices aggressively to mitigate the negative effects of foreign exchange risk.

In the technical side, the picture is bullish for the stock as it trades above all major moving averages. The uptrend started from June 14 can lead the prices to new 52 week high; the catalyst for this move can be provided by the 2Q results. Immediate support for the stocks stands at $385 the high from May 3rd, while a break above can drive prices at $419 the 52 weeks high. On the downside, first support stands at $360 the 50 and 100-day moving average, while next support can be found at $342 the low from June 17th.

NFLX will release its 2Q 2019 financial results and outlook on Wednesday, July 17th. The market expects EPS of $0.56 while the consensus for revenue is at $4.94B.

Written by Nikolas Papas, Market Strategist, InvestingCube.com and ATFX

Nikolas Papas has been in the finance industry for over fifteen years in roles spanning across. Europe and USA and has acquired in-depth knowledge and experience within many aspects of the financial markets. Nikolas has worked for some of Europe's leading brokers, as an equity Analyses, and a trader managing accounts for both private and corporate investors. He enjoys both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading and focuses on stock markets and all FX majors. Currently, Nikolas provides analysis and comments on online financial publications. He studied and completed a degree in Economics (BSc), and Finance (MSc).

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Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

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[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

New Zealand CPl growth in the second quarter was in line with expectations. The Australia ANZ consumer confidence index came in below market expectations. Gains in the New Zealand dollar were limited and gains in the Australian dollar also stalled. Today focus on U.K. June unemployment rate and jobless claims, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade account for May and the ZEW economic sentiment index for July, were both expected to improve from the previous month, bullish European currencies, special on Euro. But markets were also focused tonight U.S. retail sales and industrial output data for June. The market expected that the U.S. retail sales and industrial output fell in June from a last month that would be bearish for the dollar.

Separately, Bank of England governor Carney and federal reserve chairman Powell spoke tonight. Their speech involves the country's monetary policy and can influence the market. Special attention to Carney speech, impact on GBPUSD. Carney's comments are more likely to affect UK CPI and retail price expectations tomorrow.

[Important financial data and events]

09:30 RBA releases minutes for July
16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims in June
17:00 Eurozone quarterly adjusted trade accounts for May
17:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for July
20:00 Bank of England governor jay carney
20:15 Fed governor Paul speaks
20:30 US retail sales and import price index in June
21:15 U.S. industrial output for June
22:00 US business inventory rate for May
22:00 US NAHB housing index for July
Next day 01:00 Federal reserve chairman Powell speaks
Next day 03:30 Fed Evans spoke
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude inventories change

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1275/1.1290 resistance
1.1245/1.1230 support
US Manufacturing index rose in line with expectations and the euro fell yesterday. Markets focused on the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade account for May and ZEW economic sentiment for July. More important today as the US retail sales data, market expectations fell from last month. If the Eurozone data as expected, it is likely to be bullish for the euro as U.S. retail sales are expected to fall. Technically, the euro's first resistance is 1.1275, followed by 1.1300.

GBPUSD
1.2545/1.2575 resistance
1.2490/1.2460 support
U.K. unemployment rate and jobless claims figures are released today, and June CPI and retail prices are released tomorrow. These data tend to affect the value of the British pound before and after the release of data. The market is still speculating about the data and fears that the Bank of England governor speech this evening will limit GBP gains and further weaken it. Technically, GBPUSD has reached the lower target of 1.2500. It is believed that prices fluctuated today due to conflicting data from the UK and US.

AUDUSD
0.7045/0.7060 resistance
0.7015/0.7000 support
Fed chairman Powell said to maintain rate cut expectations, bearish USD. In addition, New Zealand reported the second quarter CPl, in line with the market forecast growth, indirect bullish to the Australian dollar. Looking at U.S. retail sales results today, the Australian dollar is still likely to trade higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of expected data. After the release of U.S. data, pay attention to the trend of the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar adjusted gains, trend fell. Technically, it is recommended the resistance of 0.7045 and 0.7060. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, NZD has test the last month's high of 0.6725, while the next level of resistance is 0.6750. See if it can break through.

USDJPY
107.80/107.65 support
108.25/108.40 resistance
Federal reserve Powell said to maintain rate cut expectations, limit the dollar. China's second-quarter GDP fell yesterday, but the disappointment was offset by faster growth in other internal data, limiting the dollar's fall against the yen. Technically, 107.80 and 107.65 are short-term supports, with resistance of 108.25 and 108.40, and more importantly, resistance of 108.60. Watch for Asian stocks and the dow, watch for safe-haven flows, and assess the dollar against the yen.

USDCAD
1.3035/1.3020 support
1.3075/1.3095 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June to minus 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, crude oil futures fell and the U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar, back to 1.3055. No Canadian economic data release today, but focus on U.S. retail sales. Finally, it is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil prices, which may affect the Canadian dollar.

Us crude futures
60.25/60.85 resistance
59.00/58.45 support
Crude oil futures fell as the market watched the number of U.S. API crude oil inventories change tomorrow. Technically, there is still an opportunity for crude oil prices to test the resistance of 60.25 or 60.85. In contrast, crude oil futures fell on other factors, with the first reference support at $59.00 and $58.45.

XAUUSD
1417/1420 resistance
1407/1404 support
Gold prices were capped after U.S. inflation data rose in June. Earlier this analysis noted that if U.S. inflation data rose more than expected in June, watch for gold prices to fall more sharply. The market is awaiting US retail sales results today and a "beige book" report tomorrow. Gold prices are likely to be volatile today around U.S. retail sales results, so take note and pay attention to risk management.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
27425/27515 resistance
27220/27095 support
U.S. inflation rose in June and economic data showed tentative improvement. Trade talks between China and the United States went well, with the Dow future further up slightly. Today focus on U.S. retail sales and tomorrowU.S. economic report called "beige book" . It could update and details about the U.S. economy. The Dow could affected by the U.S. retail sales data and ahead of tomorrow's beige book release, noting the recent correction in high resistance.

BTCUSD:
11050 / 11450 resistance
9950 / 9750 support
As mentioned couple week ago, the China and U.S. trade tensions cool down. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the critical resistance lower to US$12000, seeks the support.
The technical support, the first targeted were US$9750.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Gold Prices Could Rise on Break to 1430

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Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.