Discuss 1MinuteDaily.com

[Paul41]

Hi Paul,

Care to tell us what you found?

Regards,
AZ

OK,
Here is a brass necked, probably get slated, link for you.

https://sites.google.com/site/morningforex/

Its been back tested since 2007 with a 78% hit rate.

Please feel free to ask questions etc before i get booted out of here
Many pips to you all,
Regards,
Paul.

 

[Paul41]

Oh, bye the way.
Please find attached, another little present to try!
Only one template as they are all adjustable to suit your preferences anyway.

I have not traded this one yet so i cant give any more info on it.


Indicator,template, and manual included.
Regards,
Paul.
View attachment alert trading system.zip

 

[jkyksa]

Hi Paul,

Care to tell us what you found?

Regards,
AZ

Az thanks for your monthly update. Keep them coming in. I compare them to 1minute daily and mine. Good Job.

 

[aztrades]

Greetings all,

You're welcome, jkyksa.

The last few months have been a struggle, barely eking out a small gain. This month looks like it might end up a loser. So far, it's 25 W, 28 L, 4 O. The last two days were a killer for GBP/USD with type "D" (2 losses) on both days.

I would be interested in hearing from the 1 Minute Daily folks as to their thoughts.

Best regards,
AZ

 

[nc_trader]

Greetings all,

You're welcome, jkyksa.

The last few months have been a struggle, barely eking out a small gain. This month looks like it might end up a loser. So far, it's 25 W, 28 L, 4 O. The last two days were a killer for GBP/USD with type "D" (2 losses) on both days.

I would be interested in hearing from the 1 Minute Daily folks as to their thoughts.

Best regards,
AZ

My issue is that my losses are considerably bigger than my wins. Maybe it's just my broker, but if the price zooms past the buy/sell stop or stop loss, I have seen slippage as high as 12 pips.

I've used 1MD on GBP/USD for a little over 4 months now, and I am just below what I started with. It is frustrating. And the double losses are just killer, like you said.

 

[agent007uk]

Hi guys

I have been using 1MD for some time now, and I have manually back-tested GBP/USD extensively since Jan 2008. From the results of my back-tests, I now trade it differently to the standard method (see below).

The real problem with 1MD (as the previous post mentioned) is the 'D' days. Get 2 of these in a week and its goodbye profits for the whole week. The current market action seems to be creating a far higher ratio of 'D' trades.

So, the strategy has only a slight (but consistent) edge, with a win probability of about 55%. Add to this that the win/loss ratio is actually slightly negative, and you can see the problem. Choppy markets are one reason for the poor recent performance, but also the reduced ATR of GBP/USD must also be another. Consider that 12 months ago, GBP/USD had an ATR of about 220. Recently its about 130. Add to this that about 60 pips is already done overnight duriing the asian session, and there's not a lot of meat left for sustained breakouts.

My solution:
Set your stop loss to 50% of the night range. This will completely alter the win/loss ratio favourably. It will also unfortunately reduce the win probabilty, but not enough to be a concern. Back-tested since Jan 2008 (using 3 broker feeds) and with a range of 21:00 - 09:00 London time (adjusted for GMT/BST) the results are very much better.

For 2009, there were 3 months were my method gave worse results than the official method, but the remaining 9 months gave much better results. Similarly for the whole of 2008 and also for this year.

With my 50% SL setting, there is no need to fear the dreaded 'D' day, as a win the following day will pretty much get you back on track. Also, 'B' days now become become earners (loss 50%, win 100%).

Don't try and back-test this with the EA. It's pretty rubbish really as it doesnt take a trade during the overnight session. Don't take my word for it. Manually back-test it and do your own research.

This month (Sept) was pretty horrible for G/U:
Normal 100% SL = 7xA, 1xB, 5xC, 3xD
With 50% SL it is 5xA, 1xB, 6xC, 4xD

Allowing for my 3-pip offset (for spread) and risking 3% per trade, using the 100% SL method would have given me -3% for a loss and about +2.85% for a win.
With the 50% SL method, it is more like -3% for a loss, and +5.7% for a win.
Do the maths on September so far and you can see the benefits. It might not turn a lousy month into a winner, but the losses are contained.

Another bonus is that the drawdowns are significantly reduced because of the higher expectancy.

Anyway, food for thought if you are fed up of struggling.

Regards

Dave

 

[traderhb]

Hi Dave,

Thanks for sharing your alternative approach for 1MD. I will backtest it myself to gain confidence. I did have one question. Did you only backtest GBP/USD or other currencies as well? Thanks

traderHB

 

[agent007uk]

I also tested USD/JPY which also gave good results, although this is a pair that I have never traded because (1) I am not around to set my orders for 11:00 London time, and (2) my lack of trust in the EA.

Dave

 

[jddvma]

I also tested USD/JPY which also gave good results, although this is a pair that I have never traded because (1) I am not around to set my orders for 11:00 London time, and (2) my lack of trust in the EA.

Dave

Hi Dave:

I have programmed an EA (only for personal use) of Basic 1MD Strategy.

Please, contact me to study with you this strategy with more details.

jddvma@hotmail.com

Greetings.

JdD

 

[olachico]

Hello,
my question is what's the difference between your ea and the official ea? Because you can configurate the official ea like the original strategy....

regards

Enrico

Hi Dave:

I have programmed an EA (only for personal use) of Basic 1MD Strategy.

Please, contact me to study with you this strategy with more details.

jddvma@hotmail.com

Greetings.

JdD