AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1889
Euro's intra-day rally from Tuesday's 3-month trough at 1.1836 (Asia) to as high as 1.1915 in Europe due to broad-based usd's weakness on the back of falling US yields and gain in global stocks suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store.

As long as 1.1866 holds, marginal gain is seen but reckon 1.1953 (February low, now res) would cap upside and yield decline but below 1.1852 needed to extend weakness towards 1.1800 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
France industrial output, Italy producer price index.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Mar 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1919
Although yesterday's intra-day wild swings ended with euro ratcheting higher to 1.1929 near New York close, suggesting corrective rise from Tuesday's fresh 3-month bottom at 1.1836 would extend marginal gain, reckon upside would falter well below 1.1992 (Feb low, now res) and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1869 (Wednesday low) signals said recovery has ended, then price should head back towards 1.1869.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand food price index, Japan corporate goods price index, Australia consumer inflation expectations.
UK RICS housing price balance, EU ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, JOLTS job openings.

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AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1985
Euro's intra-day rally above 1.1953 (February low) to as high as 1.1990 in post-ECB New York Thursday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Tuesday's 3-month trough at 1.1836 and as long as 1.1929 (New York low) holds, upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2030/40 before prospect of retreat due to near term overbought condition.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1929 signals said corrective rise has made a top and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 1.1869 early next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU industrial production.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada capacity utilization, employment change, unemployment rate, wholesale trade.

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AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1955
Despite Friday's initial strong retreat to 1.1911 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1961 in New York on return of risk sentiment suggests sideways swings are in store, above 1.1990 (Thursday high) would extend corrective rise from March's 3-month bottom at 1.1836 to 1.2030/35 later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1911 would signal recovery has ended, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.1869.

Data to be released today :
Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activity, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
UK Rightmove house price.
Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1925
Despite Friday's initial strong retreat to 1.1911 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1961 (NY) on return of risk sentiment, then 1.1967 yesterday suggests sideways swings are in store, below 1.1911 indicates correction from Mar's 3-month trough at 1.1836 over and yields weakness towards 1.1869.

Only above 1.1990 (Thursday's high) would extend said corrective rise to 1.2030/35 later.

The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data plus a number of ECB officials are scheduled to speak (pls refer to our EI page for details). Pat attention to Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index at 10:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1904
Euro's break of previous 1.1911 sup to 1.1883 yesterday in New York due to intra-day cross-selling in euro strongly suggests early correction from March's 3-month low at 1.1836 has ended at 1.1990 last week (Thursday), a daily close below 1.1883 would add credence to this view and yield weakness towards 1.1836.

Only a move back above Tuesday's 1.1951 high (Fed's dovish hold perhaps) prolongs choppy trading above 1.1836 and may head back to 1.1967, then 1.1980/90.

The only data due out during European mornings are from the EU at 10:00GMT, these include HICP, core HICP n construction output n market is expected to show muted reaction to them.

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AceTraderFx Mar 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1980
Euro's erratic rise from March's 3-month trough at 1.1836 to 1.1990 last week (Thursday) suggests Medium Term fall from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) has made a temp. low and despite subsequent fall to 1.1883 (Tuesday), yesterday's rally to 1.1985 in post-FOMC New York would head to 1.2035.

Trade from long side for 1.2035 but 1.2093 (50% r from 1.2349) should hold.
Below 1.1951, 1.1916, 1.1883.

The euro area-area countries will release a slew of eco. data n ECB President plus some other ECB officials are scheduled to speak later today (please see EI page for details) at various venues but topics are not related to ECB's monetary policy.

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AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1916
Euro's decline from 1.1988 to as low as 1.1907 yesterday due to broad-based usd's strength on the back of rising U.S. treasury yields suggests further volatile trading below last week's high at 1.1990 (Thursday) would continue and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1883, a daily close below there would pressure price towards March's 3-month bottom at 1.1836 later next week.

Only above 1.1951/56 prolongs this week's choppy swings but only break of 1.1988/90 risks stronger correction of recent decline to 1.2030/35.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, Australia retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.

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AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1889
Euro's decline from 1.1988 (Thursday) to 1.1874 Friday suggests the correction from March's 3-month trough at 1.1836 has ended earlier at 1.1990 and downside bias remains for re-test of said key sup this week after consolidation, break would extend medium-term decline to 1.1800.

On the upside, only above Fri's 1.1938 high dampens present bearish outlook and risks stronger gain but reckon 1.1970/80 would cap upside.

Data to be released today :
Japan coincident index, leading economic index.
EU current account, Germany Buba monthly report.
U.S. national activity index, existing home sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1933
Despite euro's decline from last week's high at 1.1988 to 1.1873 (New Zealand) initially on Monday, subsequent rebound to 1.1946 in New York due to broad-based euro buying suggests further choppy swings inside recent 1.1836-1.1990 range would continue, reckon intra-day upside would falter below 1.1988 and yield another fall later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, below 1.1873 would encourage for weakness towards 1.1836.

The only eco. data due out today are Italy's industrial orders n industrial sales. We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak during the day, please refer to our EI section for details.

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